Fat Guy Gambling

Networking

2011-07-05T11:06:00.000-07:00

Okay, almost no posts in the last calendar year, and now 3 in one day, wtf...........stfu.

Anywho, I have been thinking a lot more about networking.............when I say networking, I am thinking about all types, business, social, hobby, career, etc............I know that in the past when I have spent time on networking, it has been fruitful, not always in the manner in which I intended, but you get the second order effects that Nassim Taleb discusses in his books.

I see something like this as a venture with unlimited upside.............we shall see.

Risks......lmao

2011-07-05T10:57:00.000-07:00

The longer I have been an advantage player, the more I notice certain things in life that seem ridiculous.

People in general don't understand risk or evaluate it correctly. Pretty much everyone is guilty of this in some respect and all we can really do is hope to realize it and adjust as much of it as possible.

In the past week, I have had conversations with people about others that are willing to take outlandish risks with potential harms to themselves and their family without considering or even stressing out about those risks..............mind you, these risks have a non-0 upside, but its really small, too small to measure. On the other hand, the same folks will worry endlessly about other risks that are inconsequential..............now, I am not talking about dread risk type stuff...........that stuff has some validity in life, I am talking about small stuff that shouldn't even register as risk.

Nobody thinks.........they just do

2011-07-05T10:48:00.001-07:00

More and more I have been encountering real life examples as well as literature that notes that people don't make decisions/choices based on factual evidence, but on their own biases and opinions, regardless of what the evidence.

This somewhat shocks me from the point of view of someone who is a fan of economic theory.........we are all supposed to be incentivized to make the best choices for ourselves, but more and more it appears that this it he furthest thing from the truth.

While I still have no intention to point this out to anyone other than my readership (which is somewhere between 0 and less than 0), I do want to make note of this for my own life to ensure that I am at least considering the available info before doing whatever.

Home Poker

2011-05-28T04:37:00.000-07:00

Due to the recent changes in the enforcement of US Laws, ie PokerStars and FullTilt being blasted off into Bolivia (per Mike Tyson).........I have decided to start up a home game. I have been searching around for information on how to run a home game properly, not necessarily rules and equipment, that sort of thing will bare itself out quickly. I am much more interested in how to get a good consistent pool of players to be interested and play and eventually move up stakes so that it is a worthwhile money making situation. I know one thing, I need to have free booze.

Kelly Betting

2010-06-18T13:32:00.000-07:00

Today was the first time in a while that I was faced with a bet, that based on my kelly staking and the edge, made me feel uneasy...........it wasn't an astronomically huge bet based other advantage players.........but for me, it seemed large.

Thanks to Serbia for coming through versus Germany and covering.........glad I didn't get scared and hedge.

Learning to Learn

2010-05-27T07:51:00.000-07:00

I just read a post on a gambling forum that is typical of the average person walking this earth. The poster wrote a paragraph how they want to cut through all of the BS and learn how to bet sports for a living from someone who knows what they are doing and can teach them, X, Y & Z. But the poster claimed they weren't looking for a handout.

These types of posts are symbolic of the human condition, at least in the small pool that I wade through (either the Chicago Metro area, or the interwebs)..........everyone WANTS to have a great body, everyone WANTS to make more money....yada, yada, yada........the list is endless of things people want to do............but actually doing......that means you need to learn how first. Learning to Learn. People really don't want to do that, for a myriad of reasons, but mostly because applying yourself is tough and you fail a lot in the process.

I was too upset by the posters utter lack of perspective on the situation (ie, asking for handout in a competitive market that only has a small float out there to begin with)..........but if I was going to give him a hint, it would be this.

"All the things you need are sitting out there on the internet, it takes a little digging, and the ability to learn, but you can find them. Judging by your post though, you won't. Good day."

Time Value of Money

2010-05-10T11:53:00.000-07:00

A very wise person warned me that betting futures isn't generally the best allocation of funds for someone with a small bankroll (anything under 100k).

Of course, I didn't listen and plopped down $500 on a future wager on March 19, 2010. This wager will be settled September 1, 2010....and the wager had a 19% edge. Pretty substantial for any bet.............then I wanted to barf when thinking about this...............if I had simply NOT bet the future and bet on various other opportunities that came up over the course of the 23 weeks...........even at a conservative 2% advantage and rolling that $500 over once a week.........my $500 would have accrued an expected value of $288 ($788 total), instead of the $95 that I garnered with that future bet.

I should listen to those wiser than I

F Balance/Cover, Play Optimally!

2010-04-20T06:46:00.000-07:00

I just listened to a great podcast on DeucePlays which is on www.deucescracked.com

The show is hosted by Bart Hanson and is a spinoff of his old show on PokerRoad, called Cash Plays. This podcast is from September and features a professional poker player nicknamed Limon on 2+2. He is mainly a live player in LA and he discusses many informative issues for the advantage player (even though currently his main focus is poker). One particular item struck a chord with me and it is something it took me a long time to figure out. A lot of podcasts, books, articles tend to talk about deception as an important part of any advantage play, whether it be balancing in poker, cover plays in blackjack or sportsbetting, etc..........but Limon has a different take.......

(Paraphrased)......I don't worry about my image and I don't have a set preflop raise amount either, I just make the most optimal play everytime, assuming that the play will never get exploited.........if the play does get exploited, then I figure out what adjustments I need to make........but most people you play against won't be able to figure out what you are doing and your play won't need any adjustments.

This is an important concept, in poker, blackjack or sportsbetting.........its probably best to make the most optimal play, until it doesn't work anymore because your opponents, the pit or the bookmaker figure it out and stop you from doing so. In all of these advantage plays, there are work arounds after you are figured out, so why leave money on the table in these situations when there is a chance you may not be figured out.

Longtime without a post.....

2010-04-19T11:52:00.000-07:00

I have had a long time off since last posting. Rest assure, fun stuff will be on the way. My wife and I have been adjusting to our new life with our daughter Olivia........this really doesn't have much to do with gambling, but it does have to do with my lack of posting.

Currently, I am cruising right along, betting sports as a 2nd job...........and I am currently trying to decide if I want to add poker back into the mix. The game I am considering learning is Pot Limit Omaha - cash. Still not sure if I want to spend the time, or just goof off all summer while I wait for football to come back and provide infinitely more betting opportunities than I have right now.

Finding Bets

2010-02-01T18:00:00.000-08:00

Quick hit today about how to find +EV bets in sports betting............my sports betting mentor(s) claim that finding +EV bets is the easiest part of sports betting, while I don't disagree, I think some people could use a hint or two.

A particular bet that I have been focusing on lately are individual team totals in NBA. Everyone knows that there are over/under bets for totals in NBA....ex/Phoenix v New Orleans tonight, had a total of 213 for most of the day. Most books that have NBA team totals were hanging Phoenix 106 and New Orleans 107 (individual team totals). This makes sense, because New Orleans was a 1pt favorite and as you can see, the team totals reflect both the spread of 1pt and combining the team totals you get 213, which is the total for the game. These numbers seem accurate and efficient based on the market, but then...things happen............

About 15 minutes before gametime, the total decreased to 211 and the spread stayed at 1pt.......most sites decreased their team totals to 105 & 106 or 105.5 each (the spread was very close to pk)................but occassionally bookies, very focused on their game lines, forget about team totals and leave the old ones up........106 and 107.........both of these lines, particularly the 107 for New Orleans (since the game is going closer to a pk) have value. 1pt difference at this high of a total is worth approx 2% and that is for the game total...........the individual team total difference of 1pt is worth closer to 3.5%........enough to overcome -110 and even -115.

Clairvoyance, Ignorance and Work Ethic

2010-01-11T10:05:00.000-08:00

Clairvoyance

I keep up with the ongoings of various internet forums that relate to gambling. At the heart of every gambling endeavor is cold, hard, numeros........other factors do exist and should be considered, but in most gambling markets if you can crunch the numbers you can find out your edge and bet it. Recently there has been a thread on an internet forum where a person is claiming clairvoyance (I think) as their method of beating the market of sportsbetting. While I don't doubt that this sort of thing is possible (its very hard to refute things as impossible, by nature)..........I don't see why/where it belongs in a forum. In my opinion, forums are there to help people understand things, ask questions, relay information..........this really does nothing, but claim clairvoyance, a talent that isn't replicable, therefore adding nothing with the exception of humor to the thread.

I don't doubt the existence of said skills, but if you have these types of skills, it shouldn't be hard to turn them into riches..........so save the chatter on internet forums and collect money.

Ignorance

I told a relative recently that I make money betting sports. I wasn't surprised that it was met with ignorance, but it was funny how the methods weren't questioned at all.........one thing you can count on, with 99.9% of the population is that they believe what they believe and haven't learned to ask appropriate questions to problems. Even if something seems unlikely, you should always question it, get more information,.......there may be fundamental concepts to the endeavor that you never thought of............everyone has a level of ignorance.............but you can fight against it by being aware and questioning things. I know for some topics myself, I really have almost no opinion because I might "feel" a certain way, but I haven't absorbed enough on the topic to understand even the most fundamental concepts related to it.

Work Ethic

I had a few drinks with another Advantage Player last weekend. I am fairly new to the game and although this person is younger than I, this person is much more senior in AP. We began discussing work ethic and how betting can be a grind. I think people visualize AP's as just raking in cash with little or no effort. This is not the case, it requires a work ethic much like many other professions and although I DO NOT gamble professionally, I realize that is the case. I remember reading, many moons ago, a poster on one forum was answering a question of another poster about going pro in poker. The veteran poster (and professional) alerted the poster that it takes the same work ethic and discipline as other professions where you could potentially make more money with less risk. Pretty simple, there is no free lunch and you have to earn what you get.

lastly, I am going to try and post more regularly, and even though my wife and I have a baby on the way (due in 8 days)..........I am going to try to stay on topic and provide gambling content.

What to do?

2009-12-22T10:43:00.000-08:00

I have found myself in a quandry.........I have found a very profitable situation, in which a counterparty will take my bets (at least for now) in a very, very advantageous situation for me. You are probably asking, "How is this a problem?"..........well, as we all know, if someone is willing to bet with you and suddenly find themselves with little or no money from these transactions, they will soon stop engaging in these activities with you..........its kinda like how my home poker game died.........anyway........I need to find a solution.......the way I see it, I have a few options

1) Max bet this situation until it is dead, dead, dead......either the bet stops being offerred, or the counterparty tells me to go away
2) Bet less than the max and hope that not only will I fly under the radar, but the bet will continue to be offerred in perpetuity and I can continue to collect currency
3) Alternative methods and disguises (if you know what I am talking about, then giggle to yourself, if you don't, just know that this is a riskier method, but may be worth it).

My gut tells me I should probably do #1, but my mind says that #2 or #3 are better.....only time will tell

Jimmy "the Greek" Snyder

2009-11-20T08:27:00.000-08:00

ESPN is airing a special about Jimmy "the Greek" Snyder, basically a "life and times" type special. I watched it the other night and noted a few inconsistencies with the gambling information they provided.

Bookmakers set betting lines to get even action on both sides

While this is usually true for most bookmaking businesses, it is not always true. Books will line shade (shading the line against a public favorite that will likely get bet more than an underdog) and take a position if they believe it is profitable. The idea that a bookmaker can't also be a gambling venture is incorrect. While lots of bookmaking operations will strive for equal action, this is not always the case.

Jimmy the Greek mentions betting his entire bankroll on a bet many times during his career

I am not challenging the validity of this statement, I merely want to note that in a non-perfect arbitrage situation, your expected growth on a bet where you wager your entire bankroll is -X (where X is your bankroll).........meaning, these bets will make an advantage gambler go broke.

Jimmy's story is both interesting and complex. I enjoyed watching the piece, it was clear that he understood how to gain an edge (in various walks of life), but he misunderstood risk management (ie making comments that lead to his demise). I think people should watch it and understand how helpful the NFL Today was in getting Professional Football to the forefront of the American Sports lexicon.

Fantasy Football update

2009-11-03T18:36:00.000-08:00

As there is a calling for the current mobnies won in my league (we pay some funds out weekly), I will list them here.

Bigos $20
Rogocki $17
Vinny $20.50
Jonny ATM ($3)
Mickey $12
Chris & Adam $9
Delicious ($1)
JP $16
Petey $7
Bob $22.50

Hindsight Bias

2009-11-02T07:40:00.000-08:00

I was out yesterday having a few adult beverages and watching my beloved Bears.......a few of my friends know about my "hobbies" and one of them asked me how I was doing on the props I bet as results were coming in..........it was a comedy of errors as I told him my wins and losses because after each win he would comment "I would've bet that too" and after each loss he would comment "Oh, I don't like that bet"........lets disregard the fact that some of the wins, the market closed against me or neutral.......ie, I bet at -115 and the line closed at -115 or -105 or +110.........and some of the losses I bet at -115 and they closed at -130 or -150 or -180.......my friend has a wicked case of hindsight bias.

Hindsight bias is incredibly dangerous in all walks of life, but definitely in gambling........if you have a case of hindsight bias, please either read NNT's boox or DON'T TAKE MANY RISKS.

Oops!!

2009-10-31T20:53:00.000-07:00

In a quest to deposit freely to the various offshore sportsbooks across this planet to pick up bonus money and soft betting lines, I decided to start buying Visa Gift Cards.............unfortunately, I failed to realize that only "International" Visa Gift Cards would serve the purpose of allowing me to do this.

A couple of things I learned today............Sportsbetting is work, and you will fail occassionally (see my example above where I bought a US Only Visa Gift Card that will not help in my quest of mucho depositos)......Finding arbs in derivative or prop markets is pretty easy............if I never truly learn to handicap anything but props, I can keep making small amounts of money in this game.....................If you decide to try and do this (make money at Sportsbetting) don't try and explain the methods to most people, they will mainly give you blank stares as they either think that you are insane and that all sports bettors are degens, or they assume that you are some sports genius...........

In closing, I thought to myself today, all you are really doing is picking up the money that other people are too distracted to see on the ground..............carry on.

Arbs and Middles or both....

2009-10-04T18:37:00.000-07:00

As I mentioned in the previous post, I am starting to get into sports betting a bit.............not what you usually think of sports betting, my main focus are props and other mathematical type bets.........one example is an Arb (short for Arbitrage), this is a position in which you make 2 bets, and between the two bets you secure a profit...here is an example from about a month ago.....Book A had this line Albert Pujols under 2.5 Hits, Runs, RBI +110, Book B had this line Albert Pujols over 2.5 Hits, Runs, RBI +110, in this example, you could bet both of these lines, in equal increments and guarantee a profit.

Here is an example of a middle.....Book A has Team X -2.5 +105, Book B has Team Y +3.5 -105, bet in proper increments this is a perfect middle in which you can not lose, but you can possibly win both bets if Team X wins by exactly 3 (which in the NFL happens roughly 9.5% of the time and in NCAAF happens around 9.0% of the time).

This weekend, I found a few prop arbs, that also included very tiny middles with them, like this one that I found for the Sunday night game, Book A - Hines Ward under 69.5 rec yds +120 & Book B - Hines Ward over 67.5 yds rec -115, bet in proper increments, this is roughly a 1% arbitrage opportunity...............but it also contains a tiny middle............if Hines Ward has 68 or 69 yds worth of receptions in tonights game, you would hit both sides. This type of bet has a guaranteed profit with the chance for a very big gain if you hit a very slim middle.

The next time you are searching your favorite online books be on the outlook for arbs that contain tiny middles to add additional EV to your gamblings.

Sportsbetting Noob

2009-09-26T06:15:00.001-07:00

I have started to dabble in sports betting............right now, I am betting in the fairly small NFL prop betting market........mostly yardage props, but some reception props and other player related stuff.

Props are more easily beatable than game lines for a few reasons

1. The limits are much lower, this creates a much less efficient market as the "smart money" (ie, the pros/syndicates) don't usually bother with these sorts of bets
2. Due to the lower limits, the books don't spend nearly the amount of time they spend handicapping a game line or a derivative of a game line (like a halftime or 1Q line).
3. Since they have a small limit and are offerred often at square books, they are usually shaded in a direction in which the public might want to bet.

A few early observations................

The prop betting market seems to do the follow in the first few weeks

1) Unders seem to be the way to go...............I have found much more value in under bets. My guess is that 75-80% of the bets I have placed have been on unders.

2) Players that the general public doesn't really know, but that the fantasy football geek might know are generally underrated. An example of this is Darren McFadden...........I have been taking over lines on him all season as the books have been offerring very favorable lines on him. Not sure how long that will last, but I am sure others will appear.

3) The books will sometimes offer very profitable under bets on players who have just had an excellent week, but don't truly project to be as good for the rest of the year. Enter, Benjamin Watson, who in week 1, scored 2 TD's in dramatic fashion in a NE victory on Monday night vs Buffalo. Before week 2, I found this bet, Benjamin Watson - Will He Score a TD? NO -155. Basically, the bookmaker priced this prop as if Benjamin Watson scores in roughly 40% of his games. I thought this had to be off, because I just hadn't seen a projection for him to score 7 TD's this year. Then I took a look at his historical numbers......it turns out that in the he hasn't scored 7 TD in a year in his last 5 seasons.

When trying to add a little +EV to your gambling portfolio, try putting a little work/analysis into player props.

An Unremarkable Tournament Win

2009-09-16T19:07:00.000-07:00

This past Saturday, I won a $4.40 180 man sng on PokerStars. These tournaments run around the clock and a new one starts every time the previous one fills. They are a great training ground for learning tournament poker from a strategy standpoint and from a time commitment standpoint (they generally finish in 4 hours). I would recommend these to anyone looking to learn tournaments or sharpen there tournament skills as you can multitable them and get to a meaningful sample size sooner.

The tournament that I won was completely unremarkable, I didn't make any miraculous plays, I didn't flop top set vs 2nd set to win a big pot. Most of the poker I played was solid, not too tricky and pretty much standard. I did however pay very careful attention to my final table mates and was able to avoid some tough situations and capitalize on others inability to adjust their formulaic ways. Paying careful attention at the final table is far more important than paying additional attention at earlier tables because of the significant differences in payouts at the final table.

I am giving myself a gold star for each of these observations, but realistically, this is something that should always be done.

GOLDSTAR #1 - There was an opponent at my table who seemed pretty solid, played his hands well, and was generally fairly tight. I wasn't particularly watching him to start as he wasn't opening too many pots when we were 8 and 9 handed.........as the play got shorter handed, and I was short stacked so I was observing more than playing flops........I noticed that he began making proper strategy adjustments and opened many more pots............I did notice, however that 2 times, he open limped (when he had otherwise opened with a raise) and in every one of these situations, he overbet the flop. ALARMS were blarring in my head, THIS GUY OPEN LIMPS HIS BIG HANDS,...............fast forward to later in the tournament, we are now 4 handed and pretty evenly stacked (I think i have a slight chip lead), the enemy open limps on my big blind.............I have 88, now normally, against your usual weak tight final table opponent, i would raise this 4 to 5X and pick up the pot...........but I remembered my opponents obvious betting tell and realized that if I raised, he would probably reraise and I would be forced to fold, or if the reraise was small I would have a substantial portion of my stack in the pot in a very tough situation...............so i checked................as if the poker gods were looking down, I got a glorious flop 9,8,2, giving me a set of 8's...........(we are all sitting behind 30 to 40 bb's), I checked, he overbet the pot, I jammed and he called, felting (interwebally) AA, as expected............the board blanked and he berated me for sucking out on him :)

GOLDSTAR #2 - I had a very very tight player to my immediate right when we got 3 handed, which meant, I was on the button when he was on the bb.............when this situation occurs, I find any reason to open the pot with a raise on his bb.............having the biggest stack, the other player stayed out of my way, so I raised liberally, probably over 90% of the time (I am talking the ugliest of hands, like J2, Q4, 10,5 etc).........if he played back, I folded, if he opened a pot on me, I folded...............EZPZ

GOLDSTAR #3 - After the uber-tight player was eliminated, I was left with a loose aggressive opponent as my heads up mate.................I played for a little while with him and realized that he would repop my raise almost 50% of the time and then follow with a continuation bet........one time I even saw him jam the flop when I called his continuation bet..............I wasn't sure if he had anything, but I felt this would be my way to win................I pick up J10s on the button and raise, he obligatorily 3 bets.............and I turn to my wife (who was watching) and tell her.............I have a strong heads up hand with a lot of drawing power.........I am going to flat call and if I hit anything I will win the tournament.................the flop comes Q, 10, 2..............my opponent lobs out a pot sized bet............at this point, I like the flop, but want to reevaluate on the turn, I also want to see how my opponent acts towards me calling...........I call.............turn is a Q, the best card in the deck for me................this means that it is highly improbable that he has a Q, meaning only AA, KK and JJ, a 10 with a better kicker or very rarely 222 has me beat...........I check, my opponent jams the river, and I instacall..........he felts K3s, no pair, no draw and the river blanks.

Playing unremarkably is a good thing most of the time, making the most obvious play is generally best in low limit tournament poker. Also, overlooked is the attention to detail that is necessary when playing a final table, observing opponents and making tough decisions for most of the money is key in tourney poker.

Remember these keys the next donkament you get deep in................

FF Drafting Ideology

2009-08-31T11:09:00.000-07:00

When preparing for fantasy football drafts, I have a small outline that I consider my ideology for drafting......

1) In the early rounds (roughly rounds 1 & 2 or 1, 2 & 3) draft high floors, dependable players

2) Pick value, let everyone else make mistakes and you pick up the value left ........having no plan is better than having a plan as things happen that are hard to anticipate

3) At the end of the draft, pick players who will either make a big impact or will be easy to cut, fungible, but potentially potent........

The reason I emphasis these points is that over and above the projections I will use to calculate players values, these 3 guidelines help me to manage risk effectively. With Point 1, I am trying to avoid losing the league, taking safe players, with reasonable injury histories, players that might not be the #1 pick in the near future, but are likely to remain close to this years draft position in future drafts.

Point 2 is basically to remind myself to go with the flow and allow the market to provide opportunities. It is a point that many people have issues with as they like to have a plan of what positions they will draft when and who will be on their team..........not following #2 often ends up costing more than helping..............you might like a certain player and draft that player too early, you might panic during a run, etc..........no need to paint yourself in a corner early.

Point 3 is another that I see as rarely used........in the last third of your draft, you should be selecting the obligatory, K, TE & DEF, as well as players who will either be cut, or make a big difference in your league. In this years draft there are a ton of rookie or 2nd year runningbacks that will either be the starter shortly into the season, get a share of the carries as the #2 or be in prime position to start should an injury prone starter go down. Constantly I see the old stand by wide receiver with very low ceiling being drafted ahead of the high risk high reward rb.........remember, you are buying lottery tix at the end of the draft.

keep these points in mind when undertaking your next draft....

Non-Diversified Portfolios?

2009-08-21T22:40:00.000-07:00

I have recently been listening to rotowire's Fantasy Football podcasts with Chris Liss. I find Chris to be incredibly knowledgeable and often use many of his ideas and thought processes, but I find this statement from his recent blog named My Portfolio to be flawed

"I've drafted six leagues over the last couple months, and figured I'd put them up side by side to see how the portfolio looks as a whole. As you'll see there's a lot of overlap, and that's by design - both because I like the guys I like, and because it's far better to have a big stake in a few players than a small stake in everyone in the entire league - in which case, you're always rooting for and against everyone."

There is significant downside risk to this idea, especially if the big stake you have is in players at the top of the draft. With Injuries playing a large part in fantasy football, taking a big stake in a few players could crush many of your teams. In this example, Liss has Pierre Thomas as his #1 RB in 4 of his 6 leagues, so he is putting lots of risk into the fact that this barely proven RB is going to 1 - Stay Healthy, 2 - Continue to be the primary back throughout the season. I don't think this is the optimal idea when it comes to fantasy leagues in which you believe you have an edge, I think more diversification is ideal. If you play this many leagues and don't believe you have an edge then by all means go ahead and blast away at loading up on a single player, but if that is the case, I have to ask why you would be in that many leagues to begin with.

Don't get me wrong, I think in the later rounds, when you are buying lottery tix with a smaller shot at breaking out, it is fine to have a bigger share of the same players, because of the positive effective of holding one of these breakout candidates, because the downside risk is almost non-existant..........so go ahead and grab Chris Henry in every league and LeSean McCoy in every league............but at the top, if you play to play 6 leagues and draft a top receiver in the 1st round of each, I would suggest an even spread of Fitz, Moss and AJ.............but that is just me.

Poker - Balanced Play

2009-08-15T09:18:00.000-07:00

I would consider my blog to be more of an intermediate gambling blog, you have to at least know a little bit about each situation to grasp the ideas in this blog.

Here is something that is more advanced and I am blatantly stealing it from Bart Hanson's Podcast "Deuce Plays" which is on www.deucescracked.com, a training site, but the podcast is free. Bart used to be the man on his podcast Cash Plays that was on PokerRoad, but he moved to Deuces for a more financially rewarding deal. Anywho, his podcast is the absolute best on the web. The focus is mainly cash games, but I would more call it an intellectual take on poker. The podcast is NOT math heavy, which makes it an easy listen and you often pick up some golden ideas with each podcast.

Balanced Play, was his topic at the start of a podcast that featured Shaun Deeb (this podcast actually dealt with tournament play, but that's neither here nor there). Quickly, balanced play is when you play different hands in the same manner or the same hands differently, confused yet? Basically, you play in a fashion that theoretically extends your ranges for situations, ie, usually upfront in a cash game you would raise the top 3% of hands, but occassionally, you might raise a suited connector for balance. Same thing flop, turn or river play, you throw in some plays that aren't your usual play to balance and add doubt to your opponents about your play.

Hanson told a story of a hand he played in a live game in which based on his opponents unbalanced play, he had an easy river decision, in what looked like a difficult spot. He talked about how against unbalanced players, you can play a couple different situations similarly because they are always doing the same thing. Another point he made was that depending on your game, you don't need to be balanced to be successful. This is the point I loved......

When playing in a game with good, thinking and attentive players, balanced play is important, you need to have your opponents guessing as to what your range of hands is......on the other hand and more importantly for 99% of us who are playing poker............you never need to balance your play when playing against players that are strictly recreational and won't think too deeply into the game, you just make the best plays (equity-wise) possible and live with the results.

Remember, thinking (balancing) is only important if others are also thinking. If they aren't just think about the best equity play and execute it. Keep It Simple Stupid, when applicable.

In contention - what to do now?

2009-08-14T21:42:00.000-07:00

Okay, lets assume you are close, but not quite in first..........this is often the time to get very aggressive, mainly because your equity is considerably larger by increasing your chances of winning vs finishing in the lower money positions.

1) Be aggressive. If you have to trade Prince Fielder for Michael Bourn because picking up 20 SB's in the 2nd half gives you an outside shot at winning, then you should do it. If you desperately need pitching, go give up a top hitter and make sure you get it. The worst thing a team in the lower money positions can do, is sit back and not take shots at winning. Do not assume your team will suddenly jump up and take the lead, unless you have evidence to believe this can actually happen....ie injuries or slumps from major players

2) Leverage the waiver wire. In some leagues, you don't need pay for moves, so this play can work and really is a solid idea for teams of every place. Prime examples/ Assume you are close in the counting stats in Hitting, but your BA is dead last by a mile, you can now churn players on Monday and Thursday (assuming your league has daily transactions) and catch up in counting stats by using many more at bats. Same thing in pitching if your ratios stink, you can pick up Wins and K's by streaming pitchers.

3) Analyze the teams ahead of you and see where there is potential for catching up, not just in the standings, but look at places where their team will likely be susceptible.......are they an older team? did they have a young overachieving team in the first half? You can sometimes draw conclusions based on this. In one league i was in, I saw a team that I trailed in SB's (and we were neck and neck for 1st) had a player who was now injured who provided a big chunk of steals, so they were susceptible, so it made sense for me to deal a good player to get a player that got SB's. These little windows of value may be small, but no stone should be left unturned.

In the end, teams in the lower money position should be a very aggressive while minimizing their downside risk to falling out of the money. Certainly a tough position.

Top Dog - What to do now?

2009-07-26T11:55:00.001-07:00

Okay, I am a little late in following up on these idears, but a few weeks of non-stop ongoings and a lack of focus to write kept me away....anywho.....

Top Dog

Some of you are leading your league at this point in the season, whether it is by 1 point or 15 points (in a roto league) or any number of games in a head to head league, there are certain ways to attack the remaining portion of the season....

Most of my recommendations come from having blown up a big lead or two in the past and not making the proper adjustments

1) Evaluate how a trade will effect not only your team, but the other contending teams........making a trade to pick up a point or two, but leaving yourself vulnerable to the 2nd or 3rd place team in a few spots is bad business, always look to see where your weaknesses are....

2) Use trades to block, in one league, I looked to trade a closer to a team that could pass up two of my opponents in saves (2nd and 3rd place teams)............I never ended up making a deal, but it is something to look into. If you are in first it is just as good for the second place team to lose points as it is for you to gain points.

3) DO NOT FORCE A MOVE - if something isn't there, don't force it, you are in first, very likely because you have a strong team and don't need much to maintain the lead. Don't react to a move made by another team if it doesn't make sense, don't make a move just to make a move, make sure it indeed helps or the chance of it helping you is worth the risk.

In the end, 1st place teams should be cautious, reactive, careful and understand the risks.

Eddie O

2009-07-14T04:07:00.000-07:00

Just heard this on the radio, Blackhawks color commentator Eddie Olczyk hit a Pick Six (in horse betting speak this is picking the winner of 6 consecutive races that are noted by the track) at a California race track for a whopping $500,000 prize.

Pick Six bets often have mathematical overlays and teams of advantage players will attack them in these situations. It is one example of a situation in which you can get the best of the race track. Unfortunately, with the massive amount of combinations for a Pick Six, it takes an enormous amount of bankroll to cover a reasonable amount of combinations and that doesn't guarantee a cash in flow (although it may give you an edge).

Not sure if Eddie O is part of a syndicate or just an occassional horse player who got lucky....either way, nice hit Eddie!

All Star Week - Time to Re-evaluate

2009-07-13T05:01:00.000-07:00

We have reached the break and over the next few days I am going to go over some of the strategies that are appropriate depending on the situation your team(s) are in ................

These different stages are.....

Top Dog - You are in first place and looking to maintain
In Contention - In the top few spots, just outside of 1st
Middle of the Pack - A little ways back, but not quite in the top few spots
Bringing up the Rear - Any place below the current mentioned spots, pretty much well out of contention....

Since we have several days during the break (between now and thursday when real games start back up) and since the all star game is an abomination......it is perfect time to look at your team and make adjustments to get to the top!

A Big Mistake - No Limit Holdem Tournaments

2009-07-05T07:20:00.000-07:00

One huge mistake that I see time and again in No Limit Holdem Tournaments (Online) is the following..........player A takes a tough beat and loses 1100 of his 1500 chips in the first level, so now player A has only 400 chips and is at the bottom of the tournament standings. Inevitably, the majority of players play this situation horribly, they end up jamming it all in over a raiser with a hand like KJ or Q10................this play is unacceptable if you want to win, even at the lower levels. Contextually, falling down to 400 chips is not the end of the world when the 1st level is 10/20 (on Pokerstars) or 15/30 (on Full Tilt), you still have between 13 and 20 big blinds which means you have some maneuverability. You can still open a pot normally and you can still wait for a premium hand...........often for a few orbits.

Another factor that players seem to forget especially in these situations in micro or low stakes online is that the poor players at your table see you as a tiny stack and will often take outrageous gambles to eliminate you (although eliminating anyone this early in a tournament is of little consequence). If you wait for a premium hand you can often get your money in really, really good, and possibly vs more than one opponent.............I can't tell you how many times I have gotten in this spot, jammed with AK and found A5 and A7 willing to gamble with me.........a big edge indeed.

So the next time you find yourself in a situation in which you lose 60% or more of your stack early in a tournament, relax, gather yourself and remember this article. Revert to your short stack strategy and try to chip up as you normally would at the end of a tournament. It could mean much profit in the end.

Vegas on the Cheap....

2009-07-03T06:48:00.001-07:00

Quickie today is how to garner mail offers that you don't deserve from your favorite Las Vegas Hotel/Casino

I'll preempt this by saying I have been going to Vegas for 7 years and I definitely missed out on the days of really taking advantage of things...........anywho....quickly

1) Sign up for a players card - Every piece of literature on gambling and getting comps encourages this and they are absolutely correct, getting in a Hotel/Casino's database is essential as it is the only way they know who you are.....side note, if they request an email address, by all means, give it, lots of specials come via email these days...its cheaper and we are in a recession.

Don't worry, casinos keep their mailing list on the hush hush, so you won't be getting telemarketing calls because of this...

2) Give some play - when I say some play, I mean something good and short term.......the trick that sometimes works for mailers/emails when a casino is slow and needs bodies in their casino is this...............go to $1 or $5 slot machine, stick a $20 or $50 in it and play through it.............you are either doubling this amount or losing it............what happens? The casino sees you as someone who might be compelled to play their biggest money making games in the joint...high limit slots..............you will sometimes get excellent deals in very slow times and possibly more..............this trick worked for my brother and I to get invited to Slot tournaments at the Plaza in downtown Las Vegas for 3 years......and we only did it for about 20 minutes....warning, results vary...........this may only get you a small discount on the strip, but it could be worth it.

Slots work best because they get exact play and their is no pit boss to fuck up your rating because he had too much vicodin before you sat down.

3) Ask for everything - Before booking, if you don't have some sort of offer, call around to the places you would like to stay and ask....tell them that you are calling their competitors too (be careful you know what casino is owned by who.....Harrah's and MGM/Mirage own a bunch of them).........give them your players card number sometimes that will garner a cheaper rate.

I have many more tips, especially gambing and drink ones....for later blogs...

Easy Advantage Plays

2009-06-22T17:49:00.000-07:00

This blog isn't just about fantasy sports, I want to keep all of my casino gamblers interested here. Here are is a short list of easy advantage plays.

1) Taking someone elses double down - this play works with a novice BlackJack player who may be too afraid to double down. You offer to pay the double down, making you partners on the hand..............what lots of people don't realize is that the reason you double down is that the hand match ups in which it is called for are +EV for the player, so getting more money out there is advantageous...

2) Gambling Coupons - Casino Royale is one of my favorite Las Vegas Strip Casinos because once a month they hand you a fist full of coupons including BlackJacks pay 2 to 1, or various hand pays on Video Poker machines. The EV of various coupons differ, but they are generally positive EV............Buying the American Casino Guide or a subscription to Las Vegas Advisor would give you enough coupons to satisfy a beginners coupon playing itch.

3) Free drinks - in moderation obviously, or if you are playing a game that doesn't have a varying edge based on skill.............if you can bet $5 on the pass line of a craps game and get 2 call drinks in an hour, you are beating the game.

I'll get into more ways to enjoy your gambling experience, but these are a few to wet your whistle.

Hindsight Bias

2009-06-12T03:55:00.000-07:00

Hindsight bias is the inclination to see events that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place.

I included a sentence definition for emphasis, but really what I am trying to alert the readers to is that Hindsight bias is useless, often harmful. In gambling, hindsight bias, has absolutely no place, making the best decision, with the available information is the end all be all. The reason I bring this up, is I all too often here people say, especially after picking a side in a sporting event, or picking their fantasy team "Well, we will see how it turns out" .............actually, how it turns out is just a tiny piece of the long run, what is really important is making the best choice at the time and place in which you do it. Just because you win a sports bet or your fantasy team does well, doesn't mean you made the best choices possible. In betting sports, you could've taken a line that was significantly worse than market, but still won..........when putting your fantasy team together you could've made egregious errors in drafting and had a couple of guys come out of nowhere to help you out. In a poker game you could get the money in badly several times in a row and win.............so "How it turns out" doesn't have much to do with making good decisions.

Fantasy Baseball - Nothing Trades

2009-06-07T09:39:00.000-07:00

Earlier this week, I offerred a Nothing Trade to another team. I consider these an important part of fantasy team management.

A Nothing Trade would be defined as a trade that doesn't necessarily improve either team, but moves players (sometimes of the same position) and similar relative value (generally both categorically and absolute) to other teams. The reason to make these deals is more in the way of creating trading partners.................this is important, because when you do need something down the line, you have an open line of communication with the other team and can more easily create a deal.

I generally try making these types of deals with new teams in my league, mainly just to try and get them dealing. I think leagues function better when there is some trading going on, some ability to inneract with the other teams. If the league is strictly based on pickups and the draft, you really don't have a league that is fluid and therefore you probably aren't getting the most out of your league.

Consider making a nothing trade with another team, just see how it goes, and maybe you'll make them very happy with a new player of similar value, and later you can get a deal done that might help you get something you need.

Dumpster Divin'

2009-06-05T03:11:00.001-07:00

The last few weeks I have been dumpster divin' in various leagues. What is that you say? I have been trading for or picking up another man's trash. Instead of buying low, I am buying real low in hopes to find a treasure. In the past week or so, I have grabbed up the following players in 12 to 15 team leagues, in hopes of a big payoff

David Ortiz
Garrett Atkins
Scott Baker (multiple times)
Francisco Liriano
Conor Jackson (yes I know he has Valley Fever)
and shortly Ricky Nolasco

The moral of the story is, sometimes you want to grab a very cheap commodity for the chance at one large strike. It is kind of like buying out of the money options, or like buying lottery tickets, you know your probability might not be that high, but if you hit, it will pay huge dividends.

In the coming weeks, start looking at the changing of situations, ie, who are contenders and who aren't (mostly who aren't) as their lineups will change and players who are widely available now, might be a very valuable. Matt LaPorta and Travis Snider being prime examples.

Taking Stock after 2 Months

2009-05-31T09:38:00.000-07:00

Okay, as we approach June 1, we all inevitably have teams that are out in 1st and looking great, but we also have teams that aren't looking so good, maybe you have Manny Ramirez and he is suspended, maybe you have Joey Votto and his puzzling ailments.........maybe you drafted a group of starters like Lester, Liriano, Baker, Nolasco and Webb.......and now are sunk in the pitching categories even though you spent a bunch on these guys. It is time to take stock in our teams and decide a course of action.

1) What are our weaknesses? It is important to assess these and it takes more than looking at league standings. I have a team that is woeful in SB's (mainly because I needed Cameron Maybin to help), and I am also last in that category in my league, but that might not be the case in all scenarios. Maybe you have a very solid R,HR,RBI team, but they have just underproduced in the early term, so you can afford to sit tight and be patient. Maybe you are shy in SB's, but you have Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, guys who always run a lot, but just haven't gotten going yet. You might have a void in Saves, which is common and have been unable to land a good speculative play for saves up to this point. When assessing, make rough calculations to see how many points you could acquire if you grab a player or two to help these numbers based on the 1st 1/3 of the year.

2) What categories are most vulnerable in my league? This is something you can look at that standings and other rosters and figure out quite quickly. Maybe you are devoit in Saves and 4 other teams are hovering right about you, then you could make 1 move and grab 4 points quickly. Maybe runs is something to attack as your league is tightly bunched, you might give excess elsewhere to get a high runs guy to fill in, or you could go out and grab a guy like Ryan Sweeney who is available in the majority of non-AL Only leagues and is producing runs quite nicely. This is very important analysis, because you could be low in a category and have no real chance to gain many points already. I am in an NL Only league in which one team has a .213 batting average......this is 40 points behind the next team and way out of contention of scoring more points in this league. If that is the case, time to punt and go after other categories.

3) What do I have to exchange to get what I need? One caveat, if what you need is readily available on the free agent market, it is important to assess the droppability of certain players (categorically as the value to your team or other teams might exceed your needs), this is food for an entire different blog, so I will stop here with this thought, but be sure to weigh your options carefully. If you have excess of something, maybe you are in a deep league and have 3 closers, then you have a trading chip to gather what you need. Take a look at your excesses and any players that you feel are fungible and find what you need in the market.

4) When possible, make small trades over big trades. I am stealing this thought from Jon Williams who's excellent blog Advanced Fantasy Baseball tackles this idea in more detail. You can often get a lot done by making a few small deals instead of 1 big deal. Most owners are more than willing to deal smaller pieces for other smaller pieces. Remember, some owners treat their top picks like their children....it is hard to buy most people's children.

5) Don't be afraid to overpay!!! I can't stress this enough, if you are a good drafter of value, then you should be fine overpaying to get what you need. I am in a 10 team head to head league and I had 5 closers (kinda ridiculous, I know)..........I decided to trade Jon Papelbon, and was willing to take a significant discount to get a power hitter. I ended up landing exactly the guy I wanted, Carlos Quentin (unfortunately his injury creeped up again), although I was willing to pay much less to get a need.

In closing, take stock in your team now, and be ready to move when you get the chance, remember, the goal is to win (or at least finish in the money position in) your league, so don't be afraid to make brash, calculated adjustments to your roster.

Daily Transaction Leagues

2009-05-27T17:04:00.000-07:00

A quick note on daily transaction/lineup change leagues.......

I know people don't always have time to check their lineup and bench a player that is sitting that night and start a bench player, but in shallow leagues, think of the effect of doing this. Lets say that you are in a 10 teamer and you have player A on your bench, he is an average bench player in a 10 teamer. This player (assume he only plays OF for simplicity), over the course of a full season, assume 500+ at bats, will get you 75/20/75/8 .275............a decent player, certainly nothing you would need to start everyday, but a decent player. Now, think about if you could find a way to insert this player in your lineup for players that are getting a normal day off, even twice a week (between your OF and Util spots)...........so 8 at bats x 25 weeks of the regular season (I shaved off one week for simplicity) = 200 AB's. This means that you are subbing in an extra 40% of his total line or roughly 30/8/30/3 .275. This is assuming you only add the sub twice a week, which is pretty easy to assume is possibly even if you know of scheduled off days and can do it ahead of time. That additional line could be worth very valuable points in a roto league. Remember to use any advantage you have to maximize your chances of winning your league.

Article on FantasyBaseball365 is up...and other stuff

2009-05-26T03:38:00.000-07:00

Hi all, my article has been posted http://fantasybaseball365.com/

Thanks again to Charlie for having me at his site.

A few other things, if you are a recreational sports bettor and just looking for some small action, you need to check out http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=403093 this is a free betting site where they give you $.10 starting bankroll that you can bet as you wish and when you bust your bankroll, they give you another $.10.

Also, I have an Orlando futures ticket at 10-1 to win the NBA title........to hedge or not to hedge, feel free to leave comments.

As we have reached the 1/4 pole in the fantasy baseball season, my next few posts will be regarding in season team management and what positions you might want to take at this point.

Beyond Counting

2009-05-22T10:29:00.000-07:00

fyi, James Grojean's out of print cult classic is being re-released to the public via his website http://www.beyondcounting.com/

This updated version is going for $250 a copy (the original sometimes sells on Ebay in excess of 1k)...........this is the creme de la creme of advantage player books. I haven't read it, nor have I logged enough time counting cards for it to ultimately be beneficial to my own activities, but I heard that it elludes to many little known advantage techniques as well as putting the reader in the frame of mind to figure out how to attack games from an advantage players point of view.

Take a look at the website even if you have no interest in the book as he has a great article that breaks down the use of gambling coupons

Don't Watch the Screen

2009-05-20T04:08:00.001-07:00

Well, you can watch it, but don't worry about it................yesterday I watched one of my teams start the day 1/17 and saw them end the day without a HR and with only 2 RBI. Just remember that these types of days are a drop in the bucket and don't matter much in the grand scheme of a fantasy baseball season. Unlike football, one day won't really kill ya.

DISCLAIMER: If you are in a Head to Head league, please ignore this post and go find a bucket to throw up in, Immediately!!!!

FantasyBaseball365

2009-05-18T18:18:00.000-07:00

Quick hit, I will be writing an article for Charlie Saponara at FantasyBaseball365, it will be published on Tuesday May 26th, so watch out for that.

Also, I am on twitter, follow me if you dare http://twitter.com/MrDelicious13

Last but not least, for a little comic relief and Vegas info, go visit my pal Matt at www.cheapovegas.com the best, unbiased info on Vegas Hotel Casinos on the web

NFBC Satellite Draft

2009-05-16T07:51:00.000-07:00

This year, I decided to test the waters in the NFBC, I wasn't quite ready to jump into a $1,300 main event league team, or even a $325 online team............so I settled for the $125 satellite. My intentions are to learn the system, which has NO TRADES, Free Agent Bidding, and Weekly Lineups.............all things I am not particularly familiar with. The winner of the 15 team satellite gets an entry into the 2010 Main Event, which, if I won, is no problem, since one of the drafting cities, is the Second City and that's where I reside.

Onto the draft, with 15 teams, no trades and 30 man rosters, it is important to draft EVERYTHING you are going to need to compete. The free agent pool isn't likely to have a ton of value in it, although there will be some gems out there. My goal was to be more focused on SP than usual and grab a couple of top arms, along with a few good but underrated arms. As for bats, I wanted to get SB's early and then grab undervalued bats later to fill in the roster.

1
Jose Reyes
SS
2
Prince Fielder
1B
3
Tim Lincecum
SP
4
Chipper Jones
3B
5
Dan Uggla
2B
6
Adam Dunn
LF
7
Chad Billingsley
SP
8
Brian Fuentes
CL
9
Milton Bradley
RF
10
Justin Upton
RF
11
Mark Reynolds
3B
12
Justin Verlander
SP
13
Joel Hanrahan
CL
14
Felipe Lopez
2B
15
Aaron Harang
SP
16
Mike Cameron
CF
17
J.J. Putz
MR
18
Chris Snyder
C
19
Jeff Francoeur
RF
20
Kelvim Escobar
MR
21
Nick Johnson
1B
22
Matt LaPorta
RF
23
Miguel Olivo
C
24
Brian Giles
RF
25
Clay Buchholz
SP
26
Hong-Chih Kuo
MR
27
Chris Duncan
LF
28
Dallas Braden
SP
29
Erick Aybar
SS
30
Jeff Niemann
SP

I loved getting Lincecum in the 3rd and Billingsley in the 7th....also delighted to grab Verlander and Harang in the 12th and 15th respectively, for a league like this, it is insane to be able to grab grab 2 guys with 200K and 15 win potential. If I made one major mistake it was not getting at least one top 15 catcher. In a league like this with 2 starting catchers and really no free agent pool at the position, it is important to grab at least one top 15 player at that position.

Nick Johnson in the 21st and Chris Duncan in the 27th have been huge for me especially with the slow starts of Milton Bradley and Justin Upton, I had the depth to absorb it. At the time of the draft I felt both Fuentes and Hanrahan were undervalued (it hasn't looked that way now that they have started playing).

I am excited to see how this team turns out and if I like the NFBC style..........

Win by a little.....

2009-05-13T05:17:00.000-07:00

This topic crosses widely across all forms of gambling, but I will quickly address for fantasy sports. When making trades/deals, you are obviously trying to get the best of the deal, but you shouldn't be trying to rob your opponents, as I like to say, you should try to "Win by a little" when you make these transactions.......here is why

1) Your opponent won't feel cheated/swindelled/robbed/hood-winked or suckered
2) Other teams/people will see that you make "fair" trades/transactions and would like to be involved in deals with you
3) Even though you have a small edge in the deal, your partners will sometimes "WIN" the trades, reinforcing the fact that they should be willing to deal with you

The idea is to pile up tiny edges with these deals that add up to a substantial WIN. While it will be negligible to the naked eye on a deal by deal basis, the sum of your deals will give you a nice edge.

Here is an example of what I am talking about. Say player A is struggling to start the year, this player is a top player and his rating (on your pointed based private rating scale) is 100............instead of offerring a player that has a rating of (roughly 1/5th of the value of the other player) 20, but has had a good start, you might want to offer a player who has a rating of (75% to 80% of the player) 75 or 80, but has had a good start. You make a small victory that seems more fair.

This is a good way to handle all gambling dealings, you want to be welcomed to gamble with your edge and not have to worry about being shunned for gauging those edges.

Streaming Hitters????

2009-05-08T06:21:00.001-07:00

Quick hit: Lots of people stream pitchers in daily moves leagues, or pick up 2 start sp's in weekly leagues. In this post, I want to advocate streaming hitters early in a shallow to medium league. In leagues with bench spots and a deep free agent pool, it is often advantages in the early season to bench your top players on their off days and add in decent replacement players. Ex/You have Ryan Howard as your 1B in a 10 teamer, but he has Monday off, so on Sunday night, you scoop up Adam LaRoche (who is playing on Monday) and drop the bottom player on your roster (someone who is likely easily replaceable through the free agent market), then bench Howard (on his off day) and throw LaRoche into your lineup to get 4 valuable AB's........

This strategy compounds itself very quickly, if you can add even 12 extra at bats a week, you can add a significant amount of numbers early in the season.

Every little edge helps....

1 month in.....trade values

2009-05-06T03:44:00.000-07:00

BUY LOW, SELL HIGH............this is a phrase commonly used in conjunction with every commodity and is no different in fantasy sports. I had an email discussion with a friend who I have played fantasy sports with for many years. The basis of the discussion is how some players values have fluctuated significantly 1 month into the season and other players values haven't moved much even though you would think their performance would lead you to believe otherwise.

I'll take one step back, in this entry, when I discuss trades I am only discussing a players absolute value. This will make this entry more focused, because a players categorical value to your team may exceed his absolute value and thus change the context of the discussion (also, I want to write extensively about this in later entries).

The main player we discussed in this exchange was Jimmy Rollins. My friend felt that even though he has gotten off to an awful start, (hitting around .200 with an obp below .300 and only 1 HR and 1 SB in the first month) his trade value hadn't decreased at all in the leagues he is in. He proclaimed to me "A person would be foolish to pay full price for Rollins".

While I agree with him about paying full price (I hate to do that in any trade I make)............I want to dig into some ideas here.

PERCEIVED VALUE

A players perceived value can change based on various things, from a hot/cold start, comments by a manager, an adjustment to his place in the batting order, a piece of news about his health, valid or not, (remember the Pujols news last year) a change in his role/usage, an adjustment in skill set (various items, too many to name), etc. All of these items combine to create a perceived value for owners in a particular league.

Of these items, a few of them can change a players actual value.

Adjustment in batting order position - Could increase/decrease RBI/R opportunities, could also lead to more or less SB opportunities, or in the extreme case of a player changing from lead off to 8th in the NL, could lead to a lot more walks and less power (Cameron Maybin)

News about a players health - this one is difficult to judge because it tends to be very noisy and often unreliable.........plus, some players play just fine with pain, Carlos Zambrano has pitched through a painful shoulder for 3 years now, Albert Pujols has put up gigantic numbers with a bum elbow for his entire career

Adjustment in role/usage - This is probably the most reliable of the adjustments, but also the most widely available information as well. If Manny Corpas is no longer the closer, then his value takes a huge decrease

Adjustment in skill set - very difficult to judge and can only be relied upon through 1 month of data in extreme cases

In the case of our Jimmy Rollins discussion, yes he is in a terrible slump, his BABIP is almost 70 points lower than his career average (currently at .233 for the 2009 campaign and his career is .299) and while his LD% is lower than his career (with his GB% up) this could just be a short term anomaly.............his K% is right on with his career numbers......and his BB% is low, but again it is still early. The lack of running might be a direct result of his lack of actually being on base. So I don't necessarily fault owners who aren't ready to give up on a top 3 SS with 1 month of poor results.

I do not think Rollins is hurt, that his skill set has changed, or that Charlie Manuel plans to use him in any capacity different than normal (although on Saturday vs Oliver Perez, he hit Rollins 5th)

Back to the discussion............while we hope that perceived value increases the value of our lower round picks and decreases the value of other teams top picks, it doesn't always do that...........we are searching for those fleeting opportunities.............and they do sometimes arise. In my experience you need to find guys that people have been predicting to break out and who have for the 1st month...........

Potential Sell High's Curtis Granderson, Zack Greinke, Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Hill, Adam Jones, Adam Lind, Andre Either, Yovanni Gallardo, Johnny Cueto, Josh Johnson..............these players could all represent sell high opportunites.

On the flip side, to buy low, you need to find those guys that people have been predicting breakdown for and who look like they are breaking down or who's skills are regressing in the 1st month.............

Potential Buy Low's CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Holliday, Alexei Ramirez, David Ortiz, Geovanny Soto, Derrek Lee, Chris Young, Mike Aviles........

These are a collection of injury risks, players with skill regression risks, or career year risks......

All in all, the correct way to value trades at this point is to lop off 1/6 of the projection from all of the players involved and go with it. Unless you see an actual adjustment in value for a player that you believe to be true, this is the most prudent way to attack trading at the 1 month pole.

So to answer the question, most owners who are being cautious with Rollins are probably right to do so and shouldn't just give him up for Nelson Cruz and Felipe Lopez (which is how I acquired him a week ago).

Michael Oher

2009-04-26T09:18:00.000-07:00

I didn't pay much attention to the NFL Draft yesterday, but I did have a chance to see Michael Oher go #23 overall to the Baltimore Ravens..............I was sitting with a group of guys who had a chuckle about him shedding a tear............well, that was until I informed them of his special story. I am not going to rehash the story in full here, if you want to know about Michael Oher in total just google him, or do even better by picking up Michael Lewis' excellent book The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game

Oher has overcome humongous obstacles to get to where he is right now, even with all of the help he received from his adopted family the Tuohy's, who are very special people themselves for doing all that they have done to help this young man out..............anytime I think of Michael Oher, it inspires me to work a little bit harder, or to be appreciative of my many advantages that I have received in this world.

So, while watching grown men cry might be something to laugh at in certain circumstances, in this one, it was more inspiring than anything, to see a young man come so far to get there. I am a die-hard Chicago Bears fan, but you can bet that I will be rooting for the tackle that went #23 to Baltimore to have success every single week.

Searching for more value....changing environments I

2009-04-24T07:24:00.000-07:00

Lots of fantasy experts talk about a hitter changing from a good hitting environment to a poor hitting environment or vice versa.....same thing for pitchers moving from a good pitching environment (namely a place like Petco or Dodgers stadium) to a poor pitching environment (like Coors Field)...............I thought of another environment that can make a substantial difference.

Stolen Bases

Some teams have a much better stolen base environment........this is being seen in small sample size with Bobby Abreu who has 8 SB's already........it is probably common knowledge that a team like Tampa or LAA run more than most...........and teams like the A's run less than most teams........but few people seem to look for outliers in either direction taking this into account. Mind you, I believe that the projections of the major sites take this into degree to some point, but if you are trying to win a league, you need to find potential outlier performances. This is more of a critique of managers style or organizational style. One thing I didn't take into account is that some savvy managers can change their tastes from season to season. Case in point, Ozzie Guillen, in 2005, the Chicago White Sox won a world series by bashing the ball all over the yard and employing great starting pitching.....oh and by the way they were 4th in mlb in SB's and 2nd in total sb attempts...........but as the White Sox aged and got rid of speedier options like Scott Podsednik, they fell down the list in SB's, 14th in 2006, 20th in 2007 and 25th in 2008......enter 2009, and the White Sox are sporting a slightly younger, slightly more mobile team and they are back in the top group..........although it is a small sample size, the White Sox are 5th in SB's again, making guys like Alexei Ramirez, Chris Getz and Brian Anderson prospects for blowing away their stolen base projections.

Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper to outwit your opponents.

Another League Draft

2009-04-23T18:51:00.000-07:00

I joined a public league on Yahoo.............the commissioner eventually caved to my wishes to play this 10 teamer as a $10 winner take all...............my strategy for a 10 team 5 X 5 (23 active players, standard and 5 man bench)..............was to grab value, value, value, especially in hitting........by the way, this is my first weekly lineup league, so I was kind of excited for the format.

Anyway, here it goes, with comments.............

Pepsi Double 1. (8) Ryan Howard 2. (13) Chase Utley 3. (28) Brian Roberts 4. (33) Álex Rodríguez 5. (48) Roy Halladay 6. (53) Chipper Jones 7. (68) Josh Beckett 8. (73) Jay Bruce 9. (88) Adam Dunn 10. (93) J.J. Hardy 11. (108) Joey Votto 12. (113) Chris Iannetta 13. (128) Chris Young 14. (133) Brian Fuentes 15. (148) Nelson Cruz 16. (153) Josh Johnson 17. (168) Frank Francisco 18. (173) Justin Upton 19. (188) Jason Motte 20. (193) Heath Bell 21. (208) Chris Carpenter 22. (213) Cameron Maybin 23. (228) Carlos Gómez 24. (233) Joel Hanrahan 25. (248) Ubaldo Jiménez 26. (253) Felipe López 27. (268) Brandon Inge 28. (273) J.J. Putz

This was the first league that I secured both Utley and Howard........actually, of my first 5 picks, I only have Roberts in another league...........Chipper is a staple of my teams,...........so is Dunn, Votto and Bruce.........I went Iannetta in the 12th to grab a Colorado catcher with some power potential..........I started taking closers in round 13, later than normal but I figured to grab a bunch.........grabbed Cruz in 14 just to have him, I have drafted a lot of teams and hadn't gotten him once.............the rest of the draft is pretty standard for me except for Inge in round 27, he has catcher eligibility, so I figured I could get some additional counting stats because he'll play everyday.

All in all, I felt that I had a nice draft and can't wait until ARod comes off the DL to get my team into full swing.

Calling for Value

2009-04-21T18:26:00.001-07:00

In todays game of poker, especially no limit holdem tournament poker, I love calling for value..............ex/last night, I played a low limit sng, raised with AQo and was called by the button (an active player that was raising and continuation betting a lot)............flop comes 10,8,2 rainbow, I check, he bets, I call, turn 4, I check, he bets, I call, river is another 4, I check, he bets, I call, felt my AQo for the winner.

The moral of the story is that sometimes checking and calling the bet of an active player is the best way to get value.............in this particular example, this player probably would've folded his KJo the second I lobbed a bet out there, but he would bet mostly every flop that he missed, and I would certainly be ahead of his range enough of the time to warrant calling a flop in this spot. This type of play works even better with small pairs when you have an active and aggressive player who will be no matter what they hold.....................value is value and you don't always have to bet to get it.

Closer Troubles

2009-04-20T05:00:00.000-07:00

So just a week after the Jason Motte situation, Joel Hanrahan blows back to back saves and Manny Acta reaches into the minors to grab Garrett Mock, Jason Bergmann and Kip Wells.................while Hanrahan is still on the roster and could very well still get the next save opportunity, there are two possible plays here...............first off, it is unlikely Wells gets this job, I see him more as a long reliever, someone to caddy for Jordan Zimmerman so they can control his innings. Garrett Mock is the closer in waiting, but he has been struggling in the minors this season............finally Jason Bergmann was a decent starter a time ago, but injuries kept him from doing too much...........he could end up being the guy as he has good stuff, but possibly not the stamina to be a starter.

Either way, I potentially get egg on my face for trading for Hanrahan because his price had gotten cheap after his 2nd blown save...................it will be interesting to see how this shakes out. This is further proof that grabbing solid earlier round closers is very valuable, as it saves you from this sort of drama.

Two weeks of value

2009-04-19T21:13:00.000-07:00

Quick hit: I was talking to my brother today about my late investments in Nick Johnson, which are paying dividends right now (in my shallower mixed leagues I have picked him up, in my deeper leagues or NL Only, I drafted him late)...............I told him "I'll ride Nick Johnson until he breaks down".............at that point he told me "If you get 2 good weeks out of a pick up, then you got something valuable".............let me qualify this.............we play in leagues with daily pickups and often times 100 max moves, which means there is a lot of player movement, but his point is well taken. When you pick a player up, how much production can you/should you expect. I agree 2 weeks worth of hitting .350 and obp .450 is very valuable even without a ton of power..........the idea is, spend the year trying to find those guys with pockets of playing time/matchup advantages/advantageous park effects/lineup switches etc, it could be the difference between winning and not winning.

Regression and Appreciation

2009-04-19T06:24:00.000-07:00

Regression and Appreciation of skills does not usually occur in a linear fashion.

When valuing a player for your fantasy baseball team, this is an important point to note. I took a look at many older players in this year's draft trying to find one thing, "Which older player, who's skills are potentially regressing is going to regress in a non-linear fashion and potentially have an uptick in numbers. This situation occurred last year with Carlos Delgado........after having a geriatric year in 2007, he had a huge year in 2008. I don't think a lot of people would disagree that his skills have regressed, and if you asked people after the 2007 season, they would've said his skills are on a downward path, but regresssion doesn't occur in a linear fashion, so while Delgado is regressing as age catches up with him, he (and others) have the chance to have an uptick in numbers during their regression and can be available at a fraction of the price that these type of numbers would normally cost.

The same goes for appreciation, young players sometimes appreciation in a rapid fashion instead of a linear one. This topic though has been hashed and rehashed, which is why you hear the theory of the 27 year old season and the break out season. But few people focus on those older players that will have a non-linear regression (in a positive manner, as players could fall off a cliff and become horrible quickly also, like Mo Vaughn did). The players who provide a positive uptick can make the difference between winning your league and floating in mediocrity.

Here is a group of players to watch for an uptick in numbers due to a non-linear regression

Paul Konerko
Luis Castillo
Miguel Tejada
Scott Rolen
Todd Helton
Ken Griffey Jr
Jason Varitek
Nomar Garciaparra
Gary Sheffield

Early Season - Buy or Sell

2009-04-14T21:06:00.000-07:00

This is a list of players in which I will quickly tell you to buy or sell and a short reason............the fantasy baseball season is young, but there are still decisions to make.

Justin Upton - sell, Eric Byrnes blows, but his horrible contract hurts Upton
Travis Hafner - buy, the power is back, and when it heats up, the Tribe will score a hella lot of runs
Lastings Milledge - sell, hello Triple AAA
Chris Volstad - buy, the Fish have an excellent offense and he throws plenty o' ground balls
Chris Duncan - buy, he can't stop hitting, I guess his neck is in fine shape
Kosuke Fukudome - buy, he doesn't need to hit nearly this well to have a great year
Cliff Lee - sell, big time regression for Lee
Josh Hanrahan - buy, his price may have gotten lower because his team can't win, time to grab him up

Last but not least, don't be afraid to use those last few roster spots to gamble..........nothing wrong with thinking about Tommy Hanson.................I heard Tom Glavine is pondering retirement due to shoulder ailments.

Auction Draft

2009-04-12T18:13:00.000-07:00

Here is an auction draft that I did which was conducted on ESPN, but the league is actually being run on Yahoo.

A couple of notes, I have never done an auction draft before, but I read a few strategies on various sites, and realized that this was a 10 teamer 5 X 5 with a $260 budget, with what seemed like a not necessarily experienced group (this was not a league I ran, it was with some people I found on www.fantasybaseballcafe.com ) that I was going to try a STARS and SCRUBS strategy...........this strategy suggests that you buy a handful of premium players and then count on getting a group of $1-$5 values at the end. This league requires that we start 13 hitters, 9 pitchers and we also have a 3 player bench. Along with my stars and scrubs strategy I was planning on buying some $1 middle relievers to throw into my lineup when I don't have starting pitchers going, to improve my rates and get a few K's and possibly vulture some wins and saves.

My primary goals in this draft were to get Hanley, Pujols and McCann.......it didn't work out perfectly, but I think I nabbed a good team

3B
David Wright
$41
SS
Hanley Ramirez
$40
OF
Alfonso Soriano
$25
C
Brian McCann
$17
P
Jonathan Papelbon
$17
P
Mariano Rivera
$15
P
Rich Harden
$14
1B
Carlos Pena
$11
OF
Adam Dunn
$10
P
Jonathan Broxton
$9
P
Javier Vazquez
$9
OF
Justin Upton
$7
P
Chris Carpenter
$7
OF
Lastings Milledge
$6
MI
Rickie Weeks
$5
P
Dan Wheeler
$5
CI
Paul Konerko
$4
P
Ted Lilly
$4
P
Josh Johnson
$4
OF
Chris Young
$3
Util
Adrian Beltre
$3
2B
Kelly Johnson
$1
P
Johnny Cueto
$1
P
JJ Putz
$1
P
Juan Cruz
$1

Soriano for $25 was excellent, I didn't even have him in my plans but when I saw where he was shaking out, I had to throw my bid in. .....................I wasn't able to get Pujols because he went for $52, but when I grabbed Wright as the next guy, I was very pleased............getting Broxton for $9 and Josh Johnson for $4 were nice value picks for me, as were Konerko for $4, Chris Young OF for $3 and Kelly Johnson for $1,................I realized that Stars and Scrubs is the way to go in a more passive draft with fewer teams like this.

All in all I was pleased with my team and felt like I grabbed tons of value and only overpaid for a few a players that I thought were essential to my roster, like Chris Carpenter.

I hope to do more auctions next season as I like the fluidity of the market in an auction and I like how personal preference can come into play and you truly can build the team you want.

Jason Motte

2009-04-11T04:35:00.001-07:00

Yep, I chose to watch the abomination that was Jason Motte's 2nd appearance in the closer role in which he was able to get only one out, put two men on base and then get pulled for Kyle McClellan (Motte did obtain a HOLD, which I think is ridiculous considering his poor performance, but I'll take it in my leagues that recognize them). This is two in a row and even though LaRussa was quoted after the game as saying it is a work in process, it definitely concerns me............here is the question..........What to do with Jason Motte?

These questions arise from time to time and taking a deliberate approach is often best, here are my scenarios.

1) Cut bait with Motte - in most leagues that I am in that use Holds, I can grab a Brian Bruney from NYY or Juan Cruz from KC, or the like...........those guys are available and should remain available until they rack up a few more holds and someone notices their silly K rates. In 5 X 5 leagues, there are already 0 closers out there, so dumping Motte would only be something of interest if we need a different type of player or category........plus, I couldn't tell you who is going to close if they don't use Motte, considering the best candidate is currently closing for Memphis

2) Keep Motte and wait it out - in 5 X 5, I would guess this is the best way to go, since the worst that can happen has already happened and you have nothing but upside. Plus, most of the leagues I am in that don't count holds, still have all of the "closer in waiting" middle relievers rostered.

3) Trade Motte - only in a super deep league in which you have owners willing to speculate. Even then, you probably shouldn't use this option unless you are desperate for a certain category or position and this owner is willing to give you a little taste of it..........

So my conclusion is to keep Jason Motte until Tony LaRussa stops running him out there, or until I hear that Chris Perez is being called up from Memphis............

League Draft #4 - NL Only

2009-04-10T05:43:00.000-07:00

My fourth draft review is for an NL Only draft that I ran on Yahoo..............this is my first try at an NL Only league, but as I mentioned in my last post, in order to consider myself a serious fantasy player, I need to start playing all different types of games.

This was an 11 team league, with the same positions as my other leagues 25 man roster, 12 active hitters, 6 active pitchers, 6 X 6 roto (OBP and Holds). My strategy going in was to look for value, to grab a premium catcher early (Russell or McCann) and to wait on taking OF's as I saw them as the deepest position

Here is our team....

1.
(2)
Hanley Ramírez
2.
(21)
Adam Dunn
3.
(24)
Brian McCann
4.
(43)
Dan Uggla
5.
(46)
Chad Billingsley
6.
(65)
Justin Upton
7.
(68)
Jayson Werth
8.
(87)
Francisco Cordero
9.
(90)
Brett Myers
10.
(109)
Chad Qualls
11.
(112)
Felipe López
12.
(131)
Chris Carpenter
13.
(134)
Cristian Guzmán
14.
(153)
Jason Motte
15.
(156)
Nick Johnson
16.
(175)
Tommy Hanson
17.
(178)
Ryan Spilborghs
18.
(197)
Daniel Murphy
19.
(200)
Jody Gerut
20.
(219)
Leo Núñez
21.
(222)
Tony Peña
22.
(241)
Andy LaRoche
23.
(244)
Cla Meredith
24.
(263)
Sean Marshall
25.
(266)
Chris Duncan

For the first time since I have been doing these reviews, I draw a top pick, the #2 overall slot. In the chat before the draft, I asked the #1 player who he was going to take and he really pleased me by saying Pujols, which meant I would get the #1 overall fantasy player at #2 and could more easily build my team from here.

One important thing to remember about your early round picks is that you should definitely take the best value whenever possible, but you also need to consider which player will help you best when building your team. For me, I find it easier to build a team when I grab a player who 1) Steals bases and 2) Plays a scarce position, so in the 1st round, my faves are the 3 SS's............granted, I wont shy away from Pujols or D Wright if they are the pick at my spot, but I prefer to grab one of the big 3 SS and go from there..........back to my draft.

Hanley #2 overall was excellent for me as it was going to help me build exactly the type of team I wanted, strong at scarce positions and some underrated talent in the OF and at the corners. I went Adam Dunn in the 2nd and Brian McCann in the 3rd, Dunn's credentials are obvious, he'll hurt me a bit in BA, but the rest of his numbers are rock solid.............getting McCann put me in great position to crush 9 of the other 10 owners at the catcher position (someone will have Russell).

4th and 5th round I was pleased to grab Uggla and Billingsley, giving me another scarce position and a premium starting pitcher. These two picks gave me a great base to simply grab value the rest of the way.

6th and 7th rounds I grabbed the anchors to my OF, Justin Upton and Jason Werth........rounds 8 and 10 saw me pick up my closers, F Cordero and C Qualls........Rounds 11 and 12 are probably the keys to my team, Felipe Lopez plays every position in Yahoo (save 1b and c) so if he produces anything close to 15/15 with 90 runs, he will make the difference on my offense, and then I grabbed Chris Carpenter, all signs in spring training were pointing to a resurgence to top form................the Carpenter pick has risk, I don't know how long he'll last this way as he is always a candidate for breakdown, but a big year from him will mean that my pitching staff is in good stead (his first outting of the season just occurred and he held Pittsburgh to 1 hit over 7 IP).

13th, Guzman to round out my infield and offset Dunn's terrible BA.....14 Motte as my 3rd closer (great spring, but blew his first save opp)....15, Nick Johnson, very forgotten by most teams, but by this point, he had been proclaimed the starter and when he is healthy I can count on .290 avg and .400 obp, so this was a pretty nice late pick.........I then grabbed OF, Spilborghs, Daniel Murphy, Jody Gerut, Chris Duncan.............I need 1 of these guys to have a big year...............

Last pick I want to touch on, 22nd round Andy LaRoche...........he has the pedigree, I desperately needed a 3B, he has at an age where prospects get their last chance, he also has Pedro Alvarez breathing down his neck. I wanted to take him as he is in a make or break season for his career, he'll either lead my team to fantasy glory or be bagging groceries by seasons end and being an optimist, I am hoping for the former.

League Draft #3 AL Only

2009-04-09T19:02:00.000-07:00

Alright, this was my first stab at playing in an AL Only league and I must say it was brought on by listening to Jeff Erickson talk about LABR and TOUT Wars...........I figured that to be a serious fantasy player I needed to add some AL and NL Only leagues into the mix.

This is a 9 team AL Only, again, 6 X 6, 25 man roster, 12 active hitters, 6 active pitchers, 7 bench spots, daily transactions (all of the leagues I run have daily transactions).

Before listing out my picks, I had a few ideas of what I wanted to do...........the AL has 4 top notch closers, and I wanted to make sure I got at least 1 of them, possibly 2..........the only other spot that really had me concerned was SS, in which the AL is very short of quality players, my goal was to grab one of these players.

1.	(9)	Jason Bay
2.	(10)	Justin Morneau
3.	(27)	Mariano Rivera
4.	(28)	Derek Jeter
5.	(45)	Curtis Granderson
6.	(46)	Joakim Soria
7.	(63)	Adrián Béltre
8.	(64)	Mark DeRosa
9.	(81)	Zack Greinke
10.	(82)	Gil Meche
11.	(99)	Paul Konerko
12.	(100)	Mark Ellis
13.	(117)	Frank Francisco
14.	(118)	Jack Cust
15.	(135)	Kelvim Escobar
16.	(136)	Gary Sheffield
17.	(153)	Andy Sonnanstine
18.	(154)	Franklin Gutiérrez
19.	(171)	Elvis Andrus
20.	(172)	Dámaso Marte
21.	(189)	Jensen Lewis
22.	(190)	David Purcey
23.	(207)	Gio González
24.	(208)	Russell Branyan
25.	(225)	Kurt Suzuki

This draft saw me picking out of the 9 hole, so I had the turnaround pick. My 1st 2 picks saw me go with the best combo of HR/RBI that was on the board. The next time around, I went with the two scarce positions and was pleased to grab them the way I did because another team went Papelbon and Nathan in rounds 2 and 3 as sort of an avant garde strategy. Round 5 was pure value and could end up being the key to my team, if Granderson has a big year, 25/30, 120 runs, my offense should be in great shape. Round 6 I went back to position scarcity as I grabbed the 4th top closer in the AL. Rounds 9 and 10 I grabbed Greinke and Meche back to back as my first starters, not the most glamorous two, but I felt that their low ratios and high K's would be fine on my team and if they happened to get a bunch of wins this year, even better.

Now my supervalue picks, 11 - Konerko, because of his tough, injury riddled season last year, people shied away from him, but there is no doubt that a healthy PK hits 30 HR, and to get that kind of power at this spot is pretty excellent. 13 - Francisco, if there are any dark horse AL closers that could end the year in the top 5, it is Francisco, take a look at his 2nd half last year and realize that he is the full time closer to start 2009. 14 - Cust, no way should this guy still be on the board in an AL Only league at this spot, too much power to still be here (btw, I end up moving Cust for Carlos Gomez at the end of the draft, because I need Gomez SB's).

Rounds 15 and 17 I went with pitchers, I am hoping Escobar comes back earlier than thought and Sonnanstine is just excellent value here, a groundball pitcher who plays on an excellent defensive team.

My last notable pick is round 24, Russell Branyan, yes, that Russell Branyan, I heard that Seattle is going to use him as the left handed portion of a platoon at 1st base. This means that assuming he can stick in the majors he'll get 450 AB's, which more than likely means 25HR, at a very cheap cost.............this pick has some risk, but it is the sort of pick that can win a league for you. yes, he will strike out once every 3 AB, but he also walks a ton and can flat out mash.

League Draft #2

2009-04-09T18:35:00.000-07:00

Now that the season has started, my goal is to get through all of my league drafts in short order, so that I can start with in season advice and strategies and various other thoughts.

The following is a 14 team mixed roto league, once again 6 X 6 (includes OBP and Holds). I added a bunch of people that I haven't played much with and some old friends, 25 man roster, with 12 active hitters, 6 active pitchers and a 7 player bench.

Here is the draft with commentary to follow...........

1.	(11)	Lance Berkman
2.	(18)	Carlos Beltrán
3.	(39)	Chipper Jones
4.	(46)	Jonathan Papelbon
5.	(67)	Joey Votto
6.	(74)	Jay Bruce
7.	(95)	Jhonny Peralta
8.	(102)	Jonathan Broxton
9.	(123)	Chris Young
10.	(130)	Carlos Zambrano
11.	(151)	Ricky Nolasco
12.	(158)	Cristian Guzmán
13.	(179)	Felipe López
14.	(186)	Adam LaRoche
15.	(207)	Cameron Maybin
16.	(214)	Ian Stewart
17.	(235)	Mike Cameron
18.	(242)	Gil Meche
19.	(263)	Jonathan Sánchez
20.	(270)	Hiroki Kuroda
21.	(291)	Jeff Clement
22.	(298)	Jon Rauch
23.	(319)	Dámaso Marte
24.	(326)	Octavio Dotel
25.	(347)	Pedro Feliz

My general strategy in a draft like this, with a bunch of newcomers is to draft value and make sure my team has enough of pretty much everything to be a factor. I also like to hold off on SP's because most inexperienced teams like to grab SP's before they are truly valuable.

Picking out of the 11th hole in a 14 teamer is definitely one of the worst spots in the draft. I might have made a mistake drafting Berkman 1st instead of Kinsler who went next. After that, grabbing Beltran and then Chipper Jones, both of these players are high on my list. I went Papelbon in the 4th, which is standard operating procedure for me, but I am starting to see the light about NOT spending such a high pick on a closer, even if he is a no brainer #1 closer.

Round 5, Joey Votto is on many of my teams, I am highly invested in him across most of my leagues...........same thing for Broxton in Round 8, who really should've been my first closer. Everything I have read and all of the projections I have seen show that Broxton really has top 5 closer potential, but is generally going off of the board much later than that group.

Round 11, Ricky Nolasco was an absolute steal, my only regret was not grabbing Josh Johnson in round 12 (he went in round 13).

Other notable picks, Cameron in the 15th, grabbing a 20/20 guy here, is absolutely insane, especially one with his consistent track record and a few more value pitchers with Meche in the 18th and Kuroda in the 20th, you are looking at solid guys who put together decent ratios, and in Meche's case 180K's, these guys should not be sitting there for a team that went with no premium arms to grab.

I might be a tad bit short on power as I don't have a guy like Adam Dunn to solidify my power, but I have enough balance that if I hit upside power on Bruce or Votto, I should be in decent shape.

Next up, AL and NL Only drafts

Sleeper & Bust are relative terms

2009-03-28T09:26:00.000-07:00

When it comes to fantasy articles and tv shows at the major media outlets, you hear the terms "Sleeper" and "Bust" more often than not. These are strictly buzz words that have little to no meaning...........we toss them around, but they lack substance, because a players relative fantasy value has to do with their Price. When I say Price, I mean the position/round in which you draft them (or don't draft them) or the amount you have to pay at auction for the player. Also, remember that leagues vary and roster sizes or rules or scoring systems can significantly change the value of a player.

I have read and heard in various places that Chris Davis 1B Texas Rangers is some people/outlets top sleeper. As of this morning, www.mockdraftcentral.com has a ADP (Average Draft Position) of 65. This means that in a standard 5 X 5 12 team rotisserie league, he is being drafted in the 6th round. In other words, he needs to hit the high end of his projections to even validate his draft position, hardly making him a value or a "Sleeper" as suggested by some.

Another website had Troy Percival RP Tampa Bay Rays as one of it's top "Busts" of 2009. I checked the average ADP for Percival this morning and it was 232, which means he would be picked in the 20th round, so towards the end of the draft. Even better is that he is the 33rd relief pitcher being taken. In other words, he could have his terrible predicted season, and really not hurt you at all given his price. He could also be an average reliever with a below average ERA and WHIP and a bunch of saves and help your team. Again, hardly a "Bust" given his price.

When going through a draft, you need to be constantly evaluating the Price of the player and give no thought to whether they are a "Sleeper" or a "Bust", at a certain price, everyone is valuable and at a certain price, mostly everyone isn't valuable.

League Draft #1

2009-03-26T04:39:00.000-07:00

Here is my first league draft of the year, it was held on March 4th, it is a Head to Head league, 10 teams that is 6 X 6 (the standard categories, including OBP for hitters and Holds for pitchers).

Here is my draft and the breakdown to follow

1.
(9)
Jimmy Rollins
2.
(12)
Prince Fielder
3.
(29)
Matt Holliday
4.
(32)
Jonathan Papelbon
5.
(49)
Dan Haren
6.
(52)
Aramis Ramírez
7.
(69)
Corey Hart
8.
(72)
Joey Votto
9.
(89)
Jonathan Broxton
10.
(92)
Chris Young
11.
(109)
Milton Bradley
12.
(112)
Javier Vázquez
13.
(129)
James Shields
14.
(132)
Carlos Delgado
15.
(149)
Rickie Weeks
16.
(152)
Jayson Werth
17.
(169)
Max Scherzer
18.
(172)
Ian Stewart
19.
(189)
Brett Myers
20.
(192)
Mark Reynolds
21.
(209)
J.J. Putz
22.
(212)
Frank Francisco
23.
(229)
Pablo Sandoval
24.
(232)
Hong-Chih Kuo
25.
(249)
Gary Sheffield

This league starts 12 hitters and 6 pitchers, so there is more of an emphasis on hitting. My league contains a group of people that I have played with for a few years and I know their tendencies, I know the teams that draft tons of pitching, the teams that like prospects and the teams that are generally using a value strategy, which is what I was using. My general strategy is to grab the best player on the board in rounds 1-5 (including position scarcity) and then take some upside gambles afterwards, or pick remaining values that are too good to be true.........at this size of a league, I do less as far as roster structuring and more as far as gathering value.

Some highlights.......

I was very pleased to grab Rollins at 9 overall, one team lunged for R Howard a little earlier than he normally goes, which allowed me to grab Rollins. Round 3 was fairly disappointing as Chipper Jones was grabbed right in front of me and in a league like this with a fairly decent sized bench (7 players and 2 DL spots) Chipper is very valuable as there is plenty of ability to plug in a reasonable player behind him. Rounds 4 & 5 I started grabbing pitchers and to be honest, I might be reaching on Papelbon a bit in the 4th round, when maybe I should be going with a big bat or a SP..............I really liked Haren in the 5th as he was the last of my top tier pitchers, so it was nice to pick him up at a value.

Round 7 is where I begin guys with incredible upside....as I grab Hart, Votto, Broxton and C Young OF................Hart is a perenial 20/20 guy, but he is going to be 30/30 one year, maybe it is this year...........Votto is primed for a big year after his break out year last year, he could be a top 5 1b by the seasons end.........Broxton is moving into the closer role full time for the first year and he is taking with him is 10+ K/9 ratio.............I think he has the potential to be a top 5 closer by year end..............rounding out this group is C Young, who is similar to Hart with 30/30 potential and an absolute steal in round 10.

Round 12 I started back with pitching as this league has a weekly IP minimum of 36, and I needed some solid starting pitching to back up Dan Haren..........I went with back to back undervalued starters in Vazquez and Shields............neither guy is going to win a Cy Young, but they are both consistent as hell and exactly the type of guys I need on a staff when I am not willing to draft out of high slots to get starting pitching. Round 14, I didn't need another power hitting 1b, but he was truly the only one left on the board with 30 HR, so I grabbed Carlos Delgado, because it never hurts to have more power.

My next 4 picks all are big question marks, but have a lot of upside, Weeks (the whole room laughed at me for this one), Werth, Scherzer and Stewart................Stewart wouldn't go here normally, but his 2b eligibility in Yahoo leagues makes him a reach worth taking...................the highest upside here is Scherzer and he carries the most risk, his peripherals would say that he is a top of the rotation type pitcher, but his injury risk is humongous, imagine if Rich Harden was even more injury prone, so the idea that I squeeze a full season out of him hasn't crossed my mind, but I was thinking more along the lines of roughly 120 innings of incredible stuff.

The final few rounds contain a few notable picks, Hong Chih Kuo is one, due to the alignment of this league for pitching SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P.............it is important to have a guy that can provide you great stats and slot in as a SP even though he is actually a reliever and Kuo's SP/RP eligibility does just that.................a few owners who have been in this league awhile had some not so nice things to say to me when I snatched him up right in front of them. Grabbing Brett Myers is a no brainer here, even though I despise the guy, I still need his 200K potential on my roster......a few more notables, Pablo Sandoval as my C, he is actually the regular 3b for the Giants, but he has C eligibility, so that means I get roughly 15% more production from him as he is an everyday player. The last guy that I'll mention is Mark Reynolds, because he was in my plans from the start (when I hoped I would get Chipper so that Reynolds could be his caddy), a couple of things on him, he hit 28 HR last year, he walks enough to be valuable even when hitting .239 as he did last year, and he sneakily stole 11 bases.............Reynolds is only 24 years old and grabbing basically Adam Dunn lite in the 20th with 3b eligibility is enough to make him a huge steal...........but even moreso is the fact that due to Arizona's overabundance of corners, Tracy, C Jackson and then 4th outfielder Eric Byrnes,.........they are toying with the idea of using Reynolds at 2b in certain lineups and adding 2b eligibility would make him a value similar to Dan Uggla....in otherwords a steal in this round.

Well, that's the first draft, I'll be back with a few mixed leagues and my AL and NL Only leagues

Drafts, Drafts, Drafts

2009-03-25T11:36:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

I hope to begin posting info from various drafts that I have been doing shortly. I will give you the basic rules of the league and my general strategy, along with my picks. I have 5 drafts (4 serpentine and 1 auction) in the bag, with a couple more to go, so it should be fun to critique.

My 100 characters of fame

2009-03-22T18:54:00.000-07:00

I had a fun time this week, showing my friends a post I made on the Baseball Prospectus website. I posted in the St Louis Cardinals team health report a point that I believe Will Carroll had missed in his injury risk grading. Will who is absolutely awesome and provides the best injury news on the web graded Cardinals prospective closer Jason Motte as a GREEN, which means that his risk is very low. I noticed this, inspite of the fact that Motte was a converted catcher and moving from one position to another is generally a significant risk. Carroll posted back that he had indeed missed this detail and that he thinks Motte will now show as YELLOW (which is some injury risk).

I felt very good and gloated all week................but seriously, Baseball Prospectus is the best and the business and anyone who is a baseball fan and doesn't subscribe to the site is missing out.

Chris Liss speaks to me.....

2009-03-20T19:11:00.000-07:00

I was reading through some Q&A on Yahoo's Friends and Family draft and came across this nugget from Chris Liss - Managing Editor of Rotowire

"And that was my strategy – to go safe for six rounds, then pay the vig for players who could be in the top 25 in next year’s drafts"

He was expounding on the question that asked why he selected Justin Upton in the 7th round of the 14 team mixed roto draft. In a subsequent Fantasy Focus podcast he went a little further with the idea. (Paraphrasing) In this particular draft, after I took Upton in round 7, I shifted gears and searched for guys that were close to that draft area that had large upside, Jayson Werth was another guy I grabbed shortly after because he has 30/30 potential. He later noted that a league of that size isn't necessarily the ideal league to do this in, as a smaller league would be better, one that had a reasonable talent in the free agent pool.

In other words, in a tougher league or a smaller league with more free agent talent, embrace variance and take guys with large upside potential. It could be the difference between finishing 4th and 5th consistently and finishing 1st or 7th.............I don't need to tell you which one pays better.

Fantasy Baseball Draft - Quick Observations

2009-03-14T05:15:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

It's been over a week since my last post, in that time I have drafted 3 fantasy leagues and have another draft on Thursday, here are some quick observations.

1) Power Hitting is scarce. People usually talk about position scarcity but 40 hr threats are real scarce and if any team can get 2 of them, they have a big leg up

2) SP has a deep middle. Don't overpay for too many aces, grab those hitters and then fill your staff with Zack Greinke's and Jon Sanchez's, young guys with big upsides, this is how the rich get richer in fantasy drafts

3) Deeper League require more refined strategies........until this year, the deepest league I played in was 12 team mixed roto............this year, I have already drafted 14 team mixed roto and an AL Only that had 9 teams (I have an NL Only that has 11 teams coming up).........positions scarcity plays and category scarcity also plays in these types of leagues, making them both more fun and more challenging.

4) VALUE, VALUE, VALUE.................you should search for value no matter what the format.......don't always get bogged down by the positional requirements, it is usually more valuable to grab the best bat instead of a back up at a scarce position .

Good luck with your drafts and I will be back in a few days to break down my teams/leagues

Fantasy Draft Day

2009-03-04T04:30:00.000-08:00

Today is the first of what I hope to be several fantasy baseball drafts.

A couple of notes for draft day........

1) Get a good nights sleep (I didn't, I was up most of the night with acid reflux, but tough shit, I don't need a lot of sleep to function, but most do).

2) By now, you should've done enough mock drafts to feel comfortable with the player pool and you should have your predraft rankings set in whatever software you are using. If you do not, time to cram for this exam.

3) Email other owners and find out what they are thinking today. I don't think this is critical, but it might give you a tip to a run that could occur that you could possibly prepare for, and it gives you insight into what an owner might think is valuable when you need to trade later.

I spoke to a few owners over the last week or so, and they have given me a few thoughts on their general strategy, nothing that will change any of my ideas, but it will give me a basis for their thinking later on.

4) DO NOT read anything, but current injury reports on players that you are following up on, or for players that have something consequential occur. Most reports are mainly noise and shouldn't supercede the work you have already done.

5) This is most important, LET THE MARKET DO WHAT IT WILL................Fantasy drafts are markets, allow them to act (often irrationally) and pick up the value where you can.

It is important to not worry about what others will think of your picks, I have been doing plenty of mocks to prepare for this draft and people have openly made fun of me selecting Rickie Weeks in the 16th round of a 10 team mixed. Based on our format, and his BP projections, he is of good value at this round. Just allow your analysis to guide you and don't panic at any point.

Happy Draft Day!

Fantasy Baseball - Leveraging your Disabled List

2009-02-28T06:55:00.000-08:00

Some leagues allow you to have a DL spot or two (the leagues I run allow for 2 DL spots). One idea that I have come up with this fantasy baseball season is the idea of leveraging your DL spots to increase/improve your roster.

The two players I have in mind, that perform in the top 1% of all players when healthy, but inevitably end up on the DL every single year are Rich Harden and Chipper Jones. I want to make the case for drafting these guys below their " if they never got hurt and played full time" draft value, but above their "normal everyday league, we know these guys will be injured at some point" draft value.

A couple of factors come into play,

1) Can you get these guys for reasonable value, assuming their playing time and their production? The answer is inevitably YES, this is not fantasy football, where avoiding ouchy running backs is an essential strategy..............when these guys play, they are the best of the best. Most people treat them like it is fantasy football and avoid at all cost, because they assume the correlation and maybe they just get heart broken.

2) Can you find a suitable replacement at a cheap price? MAYBE, obviously you don't get the same value as a cheap replacement, but this year, I believe both players can be reasonably replaced during injury with a very cheap player that won't hurt you during their down time. With Chipper, I see Mark Reynolds, Jorge Cantu and Adrian Beltre going very late in drafts, these guys are very reasonable replacements during the inevitable injury. With Harden, I see Gil Meche, Chris Young and Andy Pettitte going in the late middle rounds, these guys are all solid pitchers to plug in when a Rich Harden goes down, and the combination of the two probably gives you a very solid pitcher at a cheap price

Both of these players will be in my plans for this years fantasy drafts.

Fantasy Sports - Drafting vs Team Management

2009-02-27T05:23:00.000-08:00

I have been reading the book "The Baseball Economist", this is another in a long line of theorists who take statistics to examine baseball from various angles...................I like reading different theories and seeing how arguments come about, how problems are solved, etc...................an interesting theory question came about the other day at my condo that overlooks downtown Chicago.............a few other fantasy enthusiasts were sitting around talking shop, mainly baseball, but the topic shifted to basketball, a sport in which my brother and I have teamed up to dominate the regular season portion of a league. The playoffs are still to come and actually contain far less of the prize money............anywho........our whole idea coming in, was to focus less on basketball and more on math.............granted the math focus varied significantly............for me, it was the draft, putting together a giant matrix of a spreadsheet which analyzed the individual values of sed players and set up an easy method of drafting for us..................my brother's "math" was finding situational weekly angles in which to exploit other teams, his was a form of arbitrage as well...............taking advantage of less attentive owners and owners that just don't understand (I would be in this group as well) the subtleties of running a team once the draft (the initial arbitrage session) has concluded. The whole situation was a thing of beauty and I learned a ton about running a team................but it brought about one important question, which I had asked earlier in the season...............WHAT PERCENTAGE WOULD YOU ASSIGN TO DRAFTING AND WHAT PERCENTAGE WOULD YOU ASSIGN TO MANAGING? There is probably a way to quantify this, which would take gobs of time and might even be worth doing, but in the end, both are important to winning a title.............my brother and I could not have won our title (regular season) if it were not for the expertise of each other.............but my question was one of ideas and less of getting an actual answer..........................this leads me to my brother's bold statement at our recent get together,.............."I want to do a league where everyone drafts and I pick up players at the end to see if I can manage them to some form of success", little brother, I can answer now, you might be able to do this a tiny fraction of the time, but those times would be more luck than anything...................I guess I look at the problem from a different standpoint.................my ideas are..............

Every team, assuming average expertise by every single manager, should draft an around equal team and manage an around equal team and each team would finish .500..............now, lets move out a little further (and this exercise assumes even luck, because we know good and bad fortune change the landscape of any fantasy season)..............assuming that we have 8 or 10 teams of average expertise ............now we add some expertise to a two teams...............one of these teams has expertise in player pickups and trading players, as well as lineup substitutions...........the other team has expertise in the draft....................which one would win more..............or in other words..........in which situations are there more to gain, in the draft, or in daily day to day management. Much of my argument for the draft being more important probably stems from the fact that I work a lot of data analysis for drafts, do many mock drafts to track the temperature of the market and try to distinguish in those mocks, where the players shelfs are and where I can find excellent opportunities. I think the draft takes less time to analyze and take advantage of and for more gain. One of my principle beliefs in team management and why I thought it was less valuable than drafting is that most pick up situations are quite obvious and don't take much expertise..........oh, Joe Montana got hurt, pickup Steve Young,.............injuries create obvious value situations and are generally first come first serve...................another reason you make pickups is due to injuries.........oh, Randy Johnson is hurt, I'll pick up Micah Owings the rookie hot shot who is taking his place (these are just examples for effect).............those situations are mechanical, take no analysis whatsoever and are done by the first person to get there, or by the team who happens to have the devastating injury.......................but I have found out that my thinking on team management was incorrect, there are many situations in which owners can take full advantage of the rest of the league, with their abilities....................for those ideas, I'll need a ghost writer, as I have only seen the surface scratched for those (as I can't execute most of them anyway).

So who wins the argument..................well, probably nobody, but it is a fun one to have, as I think it spawns new ideas on both ends of the spectrum.

Fantasy Sports - High Risk High Reward

2009-02-21T12:43:00.000-08:00

A concept that I have been thinking about lately is high risk, high reward bets in fantasy sports.................I am a big fan of modelling and then taking value in each round of a draft.............unfortunately, there is a point in the draft where this becomes the incorrect strategy, when all of the assets become basically the same but with differing levels of variance........think about an example like this...............say, before last years draft, you had the opportunity to take Nate McLouth or Gary Matthews Jr.............before the season, models like PECOTA would have these two as both roughly very low end OF's for any fantasy draft that give you similar type numbers................only 1 difference, Gary Matthews Jr (assume, as you should that for probabilities, there are thousands and thousands of seasons running at the very same time to create these models) projection contains very little variance, his numbers (because of sample sizes already observed of his ability and his playing situation which is stable and likely unchanging) are relatively flat across all of the possibly seasons..............on the other hand, Nate McLouth's projections contain lots of situations in which he losses the CF job to Nyjer Morgan and is either a part time player or a full season minor leaguer and it also contains some situations in which he wins the job and has a nice shot at being a 20/20 candidate.

In an example like this, you want Nate McLouth every single time, because in the situations in which he succeeds, you have much larger value than most people in this round, in the situations in which he fails, you can easily pick up a replacement player whose value is not much less than the average player drafted in this round.

The obvious follow up question is,................when should I start the process of taking these types of gambles in a fantasy league....................in my estimation, the questions you should ask yourself are as follows...............

1) How good is the league I am in? Is this a very tough or very easy league? If the competition in your league is weak (generally), ie, guys show up to the draft with a magazine and pick from it, then you may not need to do this until the final couple of rounds.........if the league is much tougher, you will have to likely do this earlier as one big hit could help you win the league.

2) When does the talent flatten out? At the point in which the relative value of remaining players gets flat, is the time in which you should think about picking these types of players, as it makes for lower risk in choosing High Risk, High Reward type players

3) Do you have positional requirements/stat requirements remaining? If you have a major need in either a position in which you are sorely lacking or a statistic, you may try this earlier..........in other words, if you have a huge need for HR's, you might reach on a guy like Jack Cust, who could hit 40 HR or could end up in the minors by year end.

Fantasy Sports - Preseason Draft Rankings (Positions)

2009-02-18T05:15:00.001-08:00

For those of you that participate in Yahoo leagues, many players have multiple position eligibility. Because baseball is a sport in which positional issues are paramount and most players have only one position, you need to consider the effects of players with multiple position eligibility and how to value them.

1) When putting together projections, value the player at the weakest position that they play. An example is Adam Dunn who has 1b/of eligibility, but his projections show that he is more valuable at 1b (he rates 5th at 1b and 7th in the of).......these same things occur for most of the 1b/3b eligible players as they usually end up being a few spots more valuable at 3b

2) Consider how valuable a player playing multiple positions is for low traffic days. It is pretty likely that the examples above don't add much extra valuable on Thursdays (for example), but some positional eligibility does.....mainly guys that have C eligibility (Brandon Inge) or SS/2B eligibility (Alexei Ramirez & Mike Aviles). Guys that are eligible in the middle or at C provide extra value as they can get you key at bats on days when regulars are off, or when there aren't a lot of games going on. These players are valuable in Head to Head leagues and Roto leagues with more counting stats than metrics.

In closing, considering a players extra eligibility can add some value, but don't over do it, just because a guy plays two positions generally doesn't make him much better than his projection shows. Some teams overvalue these guys, don't be them, but understand where these players do help.

Pokerstars

2009-02-14T11:27:00.000-08:00

Continues to show why they are the best in the biz by offerring another reload bonus, the 2nd in 45 days.............this is for their 25 billionth hand. I was wanting to take advantage of a few other bonuses, but will be forced to log lots of hands on Stars to pick up the free monies

Fantasy Beisbols

2009-02-11T04:52:00.000-08:00

Yahoo just opened up their fantasy leagues for 2009, which means lots of analysis and mock drafting and talking with others who also play fantasy baseball. Of the fantasy sports, baseball is by far the best for the real fantasy geeks.............football is more accessible to the general public, but baseball can not be beat for the true geeks.

I will try to post various theories/ideas that i come up with along the way, along with older time tested thoughts, all the way up through opening day.

Perspective on Luck

2009-02-07T06:39:00.000-08:00

This chat log is from a $1/$2 Seven Card Stud hand that I played on Pokerstars, these are the types of things that allow successful gamblers to thrive.

Dealer: Game #24229672634: peeig wins pot ($16.05) with two pair, Jacks and Tens
DESKIN: nr had till then
peeig: you caught up on 6th?
DESKIN: yep
peeig: i got lucky then
DESKIN: poker have to love it

In this particular hand, I raised on 3rd with the best hand, bet all the way and made a 2nd pair on the river. My opponent called all along with a smaller pair, trying to improve, actually did improve on 6th and begrudged their bad luck on me beating them on the end by saying "nr" nice river.

After any gambling endeavor, win or lose, especially those with a close end result, you need to decide if you actually had the edge, or if you got lucky to win in the first place. It isn't always bad luck when you lose, sometimes it is bad play and you weren't unlucky at all.

Ex/This is my first year playing in a fantasy hockey league, I admittedly know nothing about hockey, but I do know about fantasy leagues............unfortunately things haven't worked out well and I am in the middle of the pack and will likely stay there through the end of the year. I could blame it on my top goalie getting hurt for more than half of the season.....but realistically, it was because, I didn't prepare properly for the draft, I left guys on the board in spots when I should've taken them (thinking they would last another round) and I gave up too early on a couple of players and cut them before they turned it around. In other words, my efforts were definitely -EV and I was NOT unlucky.

If you want a proper treatment of LUCK, please read Nassim Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness this book gives an excellent treatment of how luck is perceived and how luck actually effects your life.

Fantasy Sports - Misunderstood Concepts #3

2009-02-04T03:48:00.000-08:00

League Rules

Again, this is a separation of sharp and not sharp..............players values slide up and down based on the rules/roster requirements of a league..........also the format, Roto vs Weekly...........obviously some guys, like ARod, don't really move in value, they are great no matter what and should be picked #1 in most leagues (funny, because the guy I am going to pick on had the #1 pick in both of these leagues and made the no brainer choice of ARod)...........I have a friend that plays many fantasy leagues...........he usually doesn't do very well in the leagues in which I play in (along with a few other sharp players)........but claims to do well in his other leagues (he fibs, so I can only say he claims)...............but the reason he doesn't do well, is that he reads ESPN.com Insider and gets comfortable with a group of players..........the even funnier part of his futility and lack of usage of different rules and roster requirements to make decisions, is that he is a fucking math teacher.........but one of his limitations is that he was a good baseball player and do more looking than thinking when it comes to these things.............anywho, we drafted 2 leagues the last few weeks, a 10 team lineup league in which we used the following 6 categories W, SV, HLD, K, ERA, WHIP (and starting positions SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P)..............this league also contained a 40 IP weekly min, which means, assuming you have 4 relievers that average 3.5 innings a piece, you still need 26 IP from your starters, meaning at least 4 good starts, 5 decent starts and possibly 6 starts that include a couple of poor starts............my friend chose an excellent pitching staff, that was loaded with top starters, who's strikeout rates weren't all great (save Johan), but pitched a lot of innings and had decent ERA and WHIP for starters...........a really good staff for this league..................then, we chose an 8 team roto league, this league had the following 5 categories W SV KIP ERA WHIP, you notice, we change to KIP instead of K, and this roster can hold anywhere from 6 to 4 starters and 2 to 4 relievers..............only 900 innings total for the year (lower than the 40 IP/week)............you would think with these significant changes that a better strategy would be something closer to what I mentioned above..............but this guy took almost exactly the same staff.....(NO REGARD FOR LEAGUE RULES).

Factoring in Factors in a Poker (Tournament) Hand

2009-01-24T08:30:00.000-08:00

I played a poker tournament with some friends a few months ago, in which I played a very interesting hand. This hand has been interesting enough that it has been brought up in bar talk at least 3 times by people other than me, so I want to address the hand and some of the factors that I take into account when playing poker. For those of you that play poker and are a winning player, you won't really learn anything new, but for those of you that occassionally play poker, you might learn a thing or two.

I'll set the situation, it is the bubble of a tournament, in which the payouts are 3rd - 2 buyins, 2nd - 4 buyins, 1st - 7 buyins.

Factor #1 - The payout is top heavy, so we are playing more for 1st than in a normal sit n go where bubble play would be slightly different.

The other 3 players are known, 1 of them is solid, he is to my immediate left and is involved with me in this hand, the other two players are aggressive, one of them is extremely aggressive and plays these spots really well.................the other is aggressive, but doesn't play the bubble that well and is exploitable in some spots, but aggressive enough that I have to ramp up my aggression.

Factor #2 - This final 4 will be more aggressive than my usual home games, so I need to steal the blinds and antes whenever I can

There are T65,000 in play, at this point the blinds are 600/1200 ante 300, so the starting pot is T3000, roughly 4.5% of the chips in play, in other words, every pot you can win is very very valuable. Also, the stack sizes range from about 20k to 9k (smallest stack) so nobody is forced all in at this point, everyone can still fold hands (or feel like they can fold hands). Plus, with this being the bubble, people are playing tighter than normal.

Factor #3 - Bubble is always a spot where people play tighter (especially with their calling range), unless you are playing a very tough game, which this was not.

My table image with this group (my home game group) is one of being very tight and very solid...........also, the player to my left is pretty solid, respects my game and is willing to lay down hands to me and is unlikely to reraise me without an excellent hand.

Factor #4 - Take into account what other players think of you, remember in a game like No Limit Holdem, especially preflop, the only thing that people have to go on to define your hand is your image and your bet size.............this is an important element that is overlooked by most recreational players

Last but certainly not least, the math, with T3,000 in the pot to start, I raise to T2700 (T600 of which is in the sb) so my investment is T2100 to win T3000. So, lets assume that I have 2 napkins, that if the bb calls my raise, I can never win..............for this to be a break even play for me, I need him to fold 70% of the time..............this means that his calling range would need to be roughly 30% of the hands he is dealt preflop, which are roughly (using Pokerstove) all pairs, any suited Ace or King, and hands as bad as Q7s and J8s, or a hand like J9o.............knowing the player in question and his familiarity with me, this just isn't the case, he is probably calling with closer to the top 20 or 25% of hands..................so the play is profitable already, not even knowing my holecards...............but now, lets come back to reality and plug in my hole cards which were 9c2c (yeah, obviously an excellent holding) and see how well it does against the top 25% of hands (all in equity using pokerstove)..................in this spot, I have 32% equity vs this range of hands..............so add more +chip EV...............last but not least, some of the time when the flop comes down and my opponent would've won had it gotten to the river, I would bet the flop and win with a bluff.................as I am first to act after the flop and will continuation bet all but the scariest boards that come off...............so despite the fact that raising 92 sooted from the sb looks like a donkey play, when figuring in all of these factors, and in this particular game it is ++++EV.

Factor #5 - Do the math, away from the table, so you can guesstimate at the table (this calculation above is too complex for me to do at the table, but I have run simulations away from the table using pokerstove (free download) and excel to crunch some rough numbers. You don't have to be good at math to win in poker, you just need to be prepared at the table.

What ended up actually happening was a bit more fun than this explanation, I raised with this awesome hand and the bb actually called...................the flop rolled off Q, 9, 2 rainbow, making me bottom two pair, I lead at the flop (like I would if I missed completely) and my opponent moved in, to my snap call..............he felts QJ and the board eventually makes me a fullhouse and I double through...................much more exciting than the analysis.........

Final verdict is, you should always look for profitable situations in gambling, take into account all relevant factors and make the best decision and be happy with it.

Fantasy Sports - Misunderstood Concepts #2

2009-01-20T17:15:00.000-08:00

Positional Requirements

I had a discussion with a friend the other day, in which he presented a hypothetical question regarding the data analysis I work with (he is a semi believer, basically I think he wants to use data analysis to a lesser extent than I use it, because he has great feel for the game and would just love to have data as a back up or to break ties for him, which is fine and probably good use for him as his feel probably still puts him ahead of 75% of the group)................he said, if the top player in your analysis is an OF (say in the middle rounds) and you need a SS, but he is 5 players down on the schedule, do you take the OF, or the SS............I gave the short answer and said that using data is not absolute and that I would take the SS based on need. I also brought up a theoretical point...........if this were a league in which there were no positional requirements whatsoever, you could pick the guy with the best absolute value every single pick. The real or more detailed answer is that based on valuation metrics that rate the value of the related position, I would take whicher player had the best comparative value..............my comparative value was a way for putting a value on players playing different positions, which allows you to make the best choose (value wise) when making a decision..............this decision pointed me in the direction of Victor Martinez in round 4, when his absolute value was lower than many guys selected immediately after him..........his comparative value (by position) shot him above all others. Now, coupled with this is strategic factors regarding positional requirements..........remember we are choosing between best available players in my example when weighing positions..................if you want to weigh rostered strategic factors, you have to do a lot of mock drafts to determine market value (or go to www.mockdraftcentral.com and print their ADP reports)...............and use many different draft positions to see, on average, where players come off the board and what types of deficiencies a particular roster might have picking a certain way (this type of exercise is underperformed and takes practice to be able to accurately assess, even I don't have an entire grasp of this, but I have gotten better and have a beat on most leagues I play in, but new leagues will be harder).

Again, I digress..............my point is that, I have a metric set up to help distinguish value between positions in the leagues I play in, mainly because I don't think it is very easy to determine this factor...........I think a lot of people make mistakes in this area and grossly under or overvalue the difference in positions............I was just in a draft in which a player liked a pick due to position when the pick immediately after that was a player that, not only had a better projected overall value, but also had a better comparative positional value, but since the 1st player was a middle infielder, it was assumed that his subpar numbers belong there while the OF didnt............this is something that I need to study much much more and perfect, but it is safe to say that there is many opportunites to gain an edge...........

Fantasy Sports - Misunderstood Concepts #1

2009-01-17T07:37:00.000-08:00

This series was written in early 2008, but is certainly applicable to today and also to other forms of gamblings....enjoy

Decisions > Results

I play fantasy sports with an ever increasingly intelligent group...........most of my leagues consist of half sharp players and the other half dead money..........this makes the leagues both profitable and fun, because it is fun to match wits with the smart group and take money from the dead money half...........but regardless of how sharp the better players get, they focus more on the result, than on the decision.............this is a critical error especially in fantasy sports.........now, I understand that winning (the result) in the long run is most important, but most of the people who play fantasy leagues aren't looking at the long run, they are looking at this round, this draft, this season...........not, the decisions in tow, and learning from the mistakes and the non-mistakes................I consider a non-mistake, a decision that didn't work out, but was still the best decision at the time..............this is harder to determine than the decisions that you struck gold on. I just completed a draft in which I made a bunch of questionable decisions..............and by questionable, I chose to gobble up the following risky pitchers (I exclude Cole Hamels as he is of risk, but much less than the following).............Liriano, Lincecum, P Martinez, O Perez, BJ Ryan and Rafael Soriano..............now, in hindsight, or, sometime August, I will be commended for the ones that strike gold, but someone else will look at my draft and say, why did you pick BJ Ryan there, he only pitched part time and got 15 Saves............or why did you take Pedro, you knew he'd get hurt (after he goes down in late May and stays out the rest of the year)..................the bottom line is the strategy/method/decisions are what is right, the results don't mean much.....................the strategy is to take a pass on the high pick pitchers and stock up on hitters, especially in an 8 team league, you need lots of hitting to compete, and in a league where you can split relievers and starters 4/4 and where out of 5 categories, 3 are ratios, you only want those volatile/risky pitchers that either provide those ridiculous ratios, or get hurt/well underproduce and are easily cut and replaced with (another closer, a middler reliever or another starter that you didn't draft, but remained a free agent).

In 2007, my models told me to pick the following players.................Gary Sheffield and Julio Lugo..............both were drastically undervalued based on the market.............but most people look at our team last year and say, Sheff was a great pick in the 10th round.........and...........Lugo was such a bad pick in the 11th round, he had a terrible year................Lugo's projected line was something like 95/15/50 35SB's .275 that kind of season would get most middle infielders drafted in the top 5 rounds (Brian Roberts comes to mind).............but, Lugo's season tanked, while Sheff's season exceeded expectations (until he got injured near the end of the season). Both were quality decisions, but I have no problem proliferating that Lugo was a bad pick, if nothing else, for fun and to keep my opponents on their toes.

Food Poisoning

2009-01-14T16:15:00.000-08:00

In case you were wondering, Food Poisoning sucks.............I have been down for the count for 3 days, pretty much useless (even more so than usual).............this truly has nothing to do with gambling, unless you realize that in all of the meals I have had in my entire life, I have only had food poisoning twice and both times were asian cuisine (Chinese food and this most recent time, Thai food)............now, the probability of getting food poisoning is so amazingly low, that it won't stop me from ordering either of these in the future, but for some people it does and that is amazing.

Experience

2009-01-10T09:43:00.001-08:00

Quick hit,

I saw a post on 2+2 talking about the state of poker today from a player who hadn't played in a while...........it got me thinking how much experience matters in any gambling endeavor.

Experience only matters if you are actively learning and improving your game (whether it be poker, sports betting, horse betting, backgammon, fantasy sports, etc).........experience may not help you at all if you keep doing the same dumb things, and never try to learn/improve......ignorance is bliss, but it costs money too.

Be honest with yourself

2008-12-31T04:18:00.000-08:00

When gambling, it is imperative to be honest with yourself, whether it be Poker, Fantasy Sports, Betting Horses, Sports Betting, Casino Games, etc..........know why you are betting and embrace it. If you are betting for a profit, know how to beat the games you are playing and implement the proper analysis and execute proper bankroll management.............If you are betting for recreation, know how much money you can lose and also know that it won't effect you emotionally and make sure you withdraw the amount of enjoyment you seek.

I have a friend who claims to be a winner in sports betting, mind you, he may actually be a winner (although I highly doubt it), but he makes all of the wrong moves and every wager he makes sounds like he makes it for -EV reasons..............the other night he bought 3 points in an NBA game from +7.5 to +10.5. He doesn't understand edges, bet sizing, or any methods of generating a profit, he really doesn't even bet on more than one book. These are all the moves of a person who is betting for recreation..............which is fine, and if you can afford to do it, more power to you.............but just be honest with yourself and realize, I have money to burn, I like to put money on a game to have a little action and be done with it.

Just remember, if you think you can just look at a game and bet it with no research or analysis, don't you think lots of people would do this and don't you think the sports books in Vegas and offshore would be going broke.......YOU CAN'T and THERE NOT.

Positive Expected Utility - Emotional Hedges

2008-12-27T11:08:00.000-08:00

I am not a believer in emotional hedges, but I do believe in +EU (or Expected Utility). Utility is an economic term and measures the non-tangible value received from a decision. An example is you may like living in a city with a lot of sunny days because it effects your mood positively while forgoing living in a city where you could earn more money.

I have lots of friends that make emotional hedge bets (a hedge is a bet that may or may not be +EV {expected value}, but will help to minimize losses).

Ex/The beloved Chicago Bears have a Monday night tussle with the hated Green Bay Packers, you want the Bears to win so bad.............so you take an emotional hedge bet and bet on the Green Bay Packers to win the game..................what does this do? It effectively comforts your emotional loss (if the Bears lose) with an emotional win (cash).

Try it sometime if the thought of your beloved team is too much to bear, just remember these bets can only provide comfort and are not a sound way to make money.

Merry Xmas

2008-12-25T05:35:00.000-08:00

Merry Xmas all............if you can get a couple of minutes away from the family and the turkey, Full Tilt is offerring 3x points for the holiday, so play some hands and earn yourself a terrible hat or t-shirt.

Fantasy Sports - Nothing Trades

2008-12-23T19:04:00.000-08:00

This is a quick hit, but a point rarely mentioned.

A Nothing Trade would be defined as a trade that doesn't necessarily improve either team, but moves players (sometimes of the same position) and same relative value (generally both categorically and absolute) to other teams.

The reason to make these deals is more in the way of creating trading partners.................this is important, because when you do need something down the line, you have an open line of communication with the other team and can more easily create a deal.

I have considered making these types of deals with new teams in my league, mainly just to try and get them dealing. I think leagues function better when there is some trading going on, some ability to inneract with the other teams. If the league is strictly based on pickups and the draft, you really don't have a league that is fluid and therefore you probably aren't getting the most out of your league.

Consider making a nothing trade with another team, just see how it goes, and maybe you'll make them very happy with a new player of similar value, and later you can get a deal done that might help you get something you need.

Game Selection

2008-12-18T04:59:00.000-08:00

I wrote a series of blogs which I will repost here called "Things that aren't in Poker Books"

The following talks about game selection

Today's entry is on game selection......................most writers give you the stock answer on game selection, FIND A GOOD GAME, I am not sure what that means, so, since they didn't tell me, I will tell you.

Game selection depends on quite a few different factors...............Type of game, Your style, your mood, ante structure, time of day............etc...............

Personally, I consider myself at least moderately competent at a bunch of games, so I need to take all of these items into context when selecting a game.
Type of Game - If you are playing big bet poker (PLO, NLH, etc) you may want a loose passive game to allow you to control the action, even tight passive could work, if you are someone that likes to take control of the table and raise and reraise a lot, If you are playing limit poker, you may might want a loose aggressive game, that builds gigantic pots to allow your ability to understand the math of the game to take control.................

Your style - You ideally want a game that is the opposite of your style, this seems like common sense, but a good game to you, might be a horrible game to me...............example, if you are a loose aggressive player, you might not want a stud hi game like I played the other night on FT, in which the $1/$2 stud game had several pots over $40, you would ideally like the Stud 8 games on Stars that I sometimes frequent which allow enough stealing opportunities to be basically freerolling when you do have a contested pot. If you are a very tight player, a big bet game that is loose might be ideal, so that you can wait for quality hands and still get a lot of action

Your mood - This is rarely taken into account, but it can save you lots of money, everyone has sat down at the table and either felt really passive or really aggressive when they sat (regardless of their normal style), so sitting at tables that are the opposite of your mood is a very smart idea.......................I remember feeling really aggressive and sitting at a $1/$2 Stud8 table on Stars with a 24% 4th street %, which is really low for this level................I sat down and ran over the table and when I did make a hand, I got action because I was the crazy player..............very nice session................on the other hand, if you are feeling really passive, an aggressive Omaha 8 Limit table might be good, you can sit, wait for a huge hand and let the aggressive players build a pot for you

Ante Structure - This should be taken into account along with the items mentioned above...........I will give an example, if i jonesing to play stud, I have 2 options, the $1/$2 game on Stars which has a $.10 ante and $.50 bring in or the $1/$2 on FT which has a $.20 ante and $.25 bring in.................so, if I am feeling loose and gambley, I play on Full Tilt, due to the larger initial pot in a 8 handed game and my larger investment per round, if I am feeling really tight and only looking to play big paired hands then I go to Stars, it is important to know the difference

Time of Day - General rule is that mornings and afternoons are filled with people that are not intoxicated and generally play very nity, the night time (for me, especially the 3 hours after work in the US) or even the weekends are very loose and lots of times you will be playing with people who are having a few drinks to unwind.................see which spot you prefer

All of these factors should be considered when picking a game to play...............more on game selection at a later date (including tournaments)

Captain Obvious - Some Low Limit Poker Idears

2008-12-15T21:08:00.000-08:00

I have a friend that hates the way I play poker, he tells me, you play the hands so obviously and so straightforward, but everyone still pays you off.....................I read a lot of poker books that tell you to vary your play, mix up your play, blah, blah, blah....................this advice is only good in very specific situations that include 1) You are playing with the same group of people on a regular basis 2) They are good thinking players that pick up on patterns of hand play 3) You know how to play hands differently than optimally and still make money......................most of us do not run into these 3 things falling right in line........................the solution. Play every hand, the best way that it can be played, no matter how transparent you think it looks.................I remember early in my poker career, trying to play lots of hands tricky or to vary my play with the same hand......................Soon, I realized, that 1) I was playing a lot online and rarely knew my opponents 2) In my home game only about 5% of people would even notice I played a hand differently 3) my trickiness was not optimal and was losing me money................

This is when I came to the realization, that I should just play every hand optimally (or what I thought was optimal), that meant, if I flopped top 2 pair in Limit Holdem, I lead right out, no checks and mysterious check raises, just lead right out......................if I have split aces in stud high and a J raise and a K 3 bets, my split aces cap, no playing too tricky, just play it the best possible, you have the best of it, get more bets in................................this is not to say I don't play hands tricky, sometimes that is the best play, like flopping quads in PLO, it is best to play this hand slow and let someone make a fullhouse, so you can stack them.............................this is even more important with bad hands, just fold, no tricky bluffs or ridiculous 3 bets, just make the best play, which is usually folding.

Remember in low limit games, playing the hand the best way possible is always the goal, leave the donk that doesn't know any better to be tricky and then you can use it against him.

Fantasy Sports - Thinking Outside the Box

2008-12-12T15:48:00.000-08:00

In previous posts, I have written about using data analysis and arbitrage (in the non-traditional sense), and how it is talked about in Moneyball and various other books I have read, and how it can effectively be achieved in drafts in fantasy sports...............I have proven this time and again and so have some of the people who I work with. But I had an interesting discussion with my brother (who is usually my arch competitor, but sometimes collaborator in these leagues) about deal making in fantasy sports, the jist of the conversation was that you should make deals sometimes just to make deals, take the bottom runge of your roster and try and trade it for a similar player on another roster, just use it to open the lines of communication, just use it to get the other team comfortable with making trades with you. I thought about this and realized how this is a really good idea,.............but at the time I was told this, I really didn't join another thought, that was told to me by a different owner............another owner told me of performing pure arbitrage (flipping one player who you have just acquired for another asset and making a profit, ie, trade player C for player B and then trade player B for player A from another team)............this owner told me that it is almost impossible to immediately flip someone, because you have to think that they would've just made a direct deal with the other owner. At the time, being someone who thinks markets are at least semi-efficient, I thought this to make perfect sense.......................but then I got to thinking about it and realized this thought is severely flawed, for several reasons.........

1) Owners may not value all commodities equally. Being someone who uses data to calculate absolute values, at least for the first 2 months of a baseball season, barring major injury or major change in playing conditions (ie playing time severely cut or increased), I have a static value for each player, BUT, this might not be the same value other owners place on a player, so in my mind, in the trade highlighted above where player A may clearly be the best available player, the first owner I deal with might think player C is the most valuable and he may also think player B from his team is more valuable than player A from another team.

2) Not all owners are aggressive in dealing, I have a few owners in my leagues that NEVER offer trades, I mean NEVER, unless it is a draft pick trade, they don't really offer trades, they get their ESPN Insider subscription, read a few sleepers, draft their same old starting pitchers, fill it in with guys who had great fantasy value about 5 years ago and they are finished, never to be heard from again.................but, if you can get ahold of a player in a deal that they really love, you can flip that player immediately for instant value.

3) Personalities, in fantasy sports you are dealing with other owners and their personalities come with them, and possibly the two teams that should've made the deal, don't for some reason other than the fact that the deal makes sense............

So I have taken both bits of advice and decided to make some deals of equal value, just to get the communication lines open...............more on this later.

A Note on Fantasy Sports Blogs

2008-12-12T05:26:00.000-08:00

I will be providing a lot of ideas on fantasy sports, but I will not present much math or proprietary stuff like research, this is the type of stuff you will need to do on your own.............i will provide lots of ideas, but little actual execution, but if you read between the lines you will be able to grasp all of the concepts without the underlying maths.

Good day

Vegas Drink Equivalency

2008-12-10T17:00:00.000-08:00

Do you like to go to vegas? Do you like to drink alcholic beverages while gambling?

The link beneath is a Mr Delicious special, it shows the amount of drinks one needs to consume, per hour, by game, in order to break even with the casinos. If you are a low limit gambler, getting your max from the drink cart is key, because it is very likely that you are NOT going to get comped to go to N9NE or Delmonico's or even the lousy buffet at the Excalibur.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=per1zePUZBtBOnc3V5gh4bA&hl=en

Learn (ReLearning) Fantasy Sports

2008-12-09T19:29:00.001-08:00

I have been playing fantasy sports (mainly football) since the 1990's, back then the game wasn't as tough as it is today, or should I say, I perceived the game as very easy, when in fact it was not.

Fast forward to 2007, and I have played a lot of fantasy sports, doing considerably poorly and entering my 3rd year of fantasy baseball, in which I have 2 7th place finishes out of 8 teams.................this is when a watershed moment occurred in my fantasy sports career................it was actually the combination of 2 separate conjoining ideas that spawned the epiphany.......1) Moneyball Michael Lewis' excellent book got me thinking like a true GM, it was the first time (since I first read the book Fortune's Formula) that I had heard the word Arbitrage...........(arbitrage is basically securing a profit based on market ineffeciencies)........2) I had gotten deeper into poker and started to study gambling a little more diligently, the term +EV had recently popped up into my thick skull and I could not rid myself of it................the combination of the two got me thinking that Fantasy Sports are just gambling, with +EV situations (ie, opportunities to draft better, and win money in leagues)...........I realized that in fantasy sports (which is different from actual sports) drafts are the majority of the league...............sure, very occassionally, a team makes a great trade or pick up that propels them to a championship, but most times, the championship is won on Day 1, the draft. The funny thing about this most obvious idea is that almost nobody subscribes to it.......................even today, all the mags you read and ESPN (which sux by the way, but we'll get to that later) and the fantasy sites, etc, all tell you it is a long season, makes moves, stay up to date with your team.................all of this has some relevance, but you realistically need to win the league (or at least get into the money paying positions) on draft day..........................

HOW THE FUCK WAS I GOING TO DO THIS?????

Luckily for me, I had played a lot of poker, and I know people based on this fact, people who like to gamble..................plus, the first league I would try this in, I knew the cast of characters, making it easier.......................also, I had some people to bounce ideas off of.............well........not exactly I guess, I didn't really want people to know my ideas indepth, but I wanted to know theirs. See, one important aspect of gambling is that you take advantage of whatever edge an opponent provides you...........I play in a poker league and routinely, most of my opponents play too many hands, so the edge they give me is that they play weaker hands than I do, so when I do play, I can get lots of money in the pot, with a superior hand...................I felt some of the same types of edges would exist in fantasy sports. I, also am of a train of thought that the people winning fantasy leagues (or any game for that matter) are generally NOT LUCKY, they usually have a strategy that is superior to the other players and whether any of the parties realize exactly what that is, is irrelevant, the only point is that these strategies work. I digress.................so, my first plan was to study previous drafts from this league, as well as listen to anything that anyone (who has done this longer than me) had to say about fantasy baseball.............I studied not only the good teams (which I studied more carefully), but I also studied the teams will poor results, that I felt had knowledge of the particular sport (I could've studied myself in football to come up with the same ideas). JP (the person who runs and routinely wins this league) was nice enough to share all of the old drafts and other items with me, as well as act as a sounding board for some general ideas I threw around (some of which I felt might not be right)................see the idea of my study of this particular case was not only to see what the good teams were doing to win (that was the easy part), but to see where teams weaknesses were and how to exploit them................like in poker, or any gambling game, you need to find an edge.............in most poker games, you can find a few soft players who pay you off too much, or you can find players playing a game they are weaker at (trust me, I won many Pot Limit Omaha tourneys playing against clueless No Limit Holdem players).............

SUBJECTIVITY

After my study, I realized that subjectivity was the main culprit for certain people. These people are knowledgable about their sport, but they have selective memory and tend to believe rumors too readily.....................they won't pick a player because they had a bad year in which they were on this persons team (Don't get me started about Fred Taylor, yes, I am a member of Subjectivity city, or at least I was)................I realized that the worst thing you could say in fantasy sports is "I LIKE", because I LIKE is an irrelevant term................just because you like something, doesn't mean it helps.............I LIKE french fries, but they are about the last thing I need with my currently expanding waistline. Even better is I DON'T LIKE..............I don't like him, because he isn't this, or he isn't that, totally disregarding basic principles of fantasy sports. In order to beat others at fantasy sports, I needed to get rid of Subjectivity and move in with his arch rival objectivity

OBJECTIVITY

Once I realized that totally being objective was the right way to go, I could come up with a better understanding...................I had a meeting with my league partner Jon, about 1 month before the season started, our meeting was to discuss our first round draft pick, of which we had a list of about 10 people to consider............we broke down each player diligently, and figured out who would be best for us, given the many mock drafts we had done and given.................(OH, I almost forgot..........the child of objectivity for me, was statistical analysis, I think the Moneyball nerds used a bit of that)................and using my statistical analysis, we came up with a name, that particular year, the name was Chase Utley................that is hardly significant, what was significant was that we discovered something very important that day, something that should drive people to play fantasy sports better, but I am sure does not.....................when playing around with our database schedules, I mistakenly slide the column over the names...................in other words, just a position, a data line (which was an average of several projections) and a relative league value (remember every league is different, rules, amount of players, teams, etc, which is why fantasy magazines are complete garbage, but that is another tangent)............our players were nameless.................I can't remember who said it, but we agreed that the way to win leagues, is to draft without bias of the names and to take advantage of those who look at the names..................between our data analysis and totally blind (well not totally, but basically) name drafting, a system was born, we would take relative value, all throughout the draft and live with the results.....................this did two things for us.................1) It helped us to take advantage of the ever fluid market which is a fantasy draft..........players values are jumping all around throughout the draft, you see really good picks, really bad picks, you see solid values, huge gambles and the like............our ideals would allow us to take advantage of any situation that occurred. 2) We would never get trapped into a particular style, or get pushed out of one..................I have played in leagues with guys who decide, their strategy is to do A, B and C, unfortunately, everyone grabs the A's, the B's end being not as good as you thought, and the C's are so plentiful that the same caliber of player you drafted in the middle rounds, goes at the end as well.............a poor recipe.

I still remember the first draft that we used data analysis and our fluid market style.................not one person in the room (besides an onlooker) thought we had a snowballs chance in hell at putting together a good team..............anyone playing fantasy baseball in 2007 would realize that Sheffield in the 10th, Sabathia in the 12th and Beckett in the 18th are picks that help you win money.................but that is after the draft, at the time, we were grabbing up VALUE.

I'll have more fantasy sports theories and styles in future articles

This Blog

2008-12-09T19:09:00.000-08:00

Hi all, as this is my first foray into bloggings on the interwebs, I want to give you a quick summary of what this blog is about. I will be posting on all things gambling, whether it be poker, fantasy sports, casino games, sports betting, prop bets, backgammon, etc............I will do it from the standpoint of a low limit recreational player, trying to eek out some beer money and having fun doing it.

If you want to learn a few things about gamblings, this is the place for you.