Networking

Okay, almost no posts in the last calendar year, and now 3 in one day, wtf...........stfu.

Anywho, I have been thinking a lot more about networking.............when I say networking, I am thinking about all types, business, social, hobby, career, etc............I know that in the past when I have spent time on networking, it has been fruitful, not always in the manner in which I intended, but you get the second order effects that Nassim Taleb discusses in his books.

I see something like this as a venture with unlimited upside.............we shall see.

Risks......lmao

The longer I have been an advantage player, the more I notice certain things in life that seem ridiculous.

People in general don't understand risk or evaluate it correctly. Pretty much everyone is guilty of this in some respect and all we can really do is hope to realize it and adjust as much of it as possible.

In the past week, I have had conversations with people about others that are willing to take outlandish risks with potential harms to themselves and their family without considering or even stressing out about those risks..............mind you, these risks have a non-0 upside, but its really small, too small to measure. On the other hand, the same folks will worry endlessly about other risks that are inconsequential..............now, I am not talking about dread risk type stuff...........that stuff has some validity in life, I am talking about small stuff that shouldn't even register as risk.

Nobody thinks.........they just do

More and more I have been encountering real life examples as well as literature that notes that people don't make decisions/choices based on factual evidence, but on their own biases and opinions, regardless of what the evidence.

This somewhat shocks me from the point of view of someone who is a fan of economic theory.........we are all supposed to be incentivized to make the best choices for ourselves, but more and more it appears that this it he furthest thing from the truth.

While I still have no intention to point this out to anyone other than my readership (which is somewhere between 0 and less than 0), I do want to make note of this for my own life to ensure that I am at least considering the available info before doing whatever.

Home Poker

Due to the recent changes in the enforcement of US Laws, ie PokerStars and FullTilt being blasted off into Bolivia (per Mike Tyson).........I have decided to start up a home game. I have been searching around for information on how to run a home game properly, not necessarily rules and equipment, that sort of thing will bare itself out quickly. I am much more interested in how to get a good consistent pool of players to be interested and play and eventually move up stakes so that it is a worthwhile money making situation. I know one thing, I need to have free booze.

Kelly Betting

Today was the first time in a while that I was faced with a bet, that based on my kelly staking and the edge, made me feel uneasy...........it wasn't an astronomically huge bet based other advantage players.........but for me, it seemed large.

Thanks to Serbia for coming through versus Germany and covering.........glad I didn't get scared and hedge.

Learning to Learn

I just read a post on a gambling forum that is typical of the average person walking this earth. The poster wrote a paragraph how they want to cut through all of the BS and learn how to bet sports for a living from someone who knows what they are doing and can teach them, X, Y & Z. But the poster claimed they weren't looking for a handout.

These types of posts are symbolic of the human condition, at least in the small pool that I wade through (either the Chicago Metro area, or the interwebs)..........everyone WANTS to have a great body, everyone WANTS to make more money....yada, yada, yada........the list is endless of things people want to do............but actually doing......that means you need to learn how first. Learning to Learn. People really don't want to do that, for a myriad of reasons, but mostly because applying yourself is tough and you fail a lot in the process.

I was too upset by the posters utter lack of perspective on the situation (ie, asking for handout in a competitive market that only has a small float out there to begin with)..........but if I was going to give him a hint, it would be this.

"All the things you need are sitting out there on the internet, it takes a little digging, and the ability to learn, but you can find them. Judging by your post though, you won't. Good day."

Time Value of Money

A very wise person warned me that betting futures isn't generally the best allocation of funds for someone with a small bankroll (anything under 100k).

Of course, I didn't listen and plopped down $500 on a future wager on March 19, 2010. This wager will be settled September 1, 2010....and the wager had a 19% edge. Pretty substantial for any bet.............then I wanted to barf when thinking about this...............if I had simply NOT bet the future and bet on various other opportunities that came up over the course of the 23 weeks...........even at a conservative 2% advantage and rolling that $500 over once a week.........my $500 would have accrued an expected value of $288 ($788 total), instead of the $95 that I garnered with that future bet.

I should listen to those wiser than I