Finding Bets

Quick hit today about how to find +EV bets in sports betting............my sports betting mentor(s) claim that finding +EV bets is the easiest part of sports betting, while I don't disagree, I think some people could use a hint or two.

A particular bet that I have been focusing on lately are individual team totals in NBA. Everyone knows that there are over/under bets for totals in NBA....ex/Phoenix v New Orleans tonight, had a total of 213 for most of the day. Most books that have NBA team totals were hanging Phoenix 106 and New Orleans 107 (individual team totals). This makes sense, because New Orleans was a 1pt favorite and as you can see, the team totals reflect both the spread of 1pt and combining the team totals you get 213, which is the total for the game. These numbers seem accurate and efficient based on the market, but then...things happen............

About 15 minutes before gametime, the total decreased to 211 and the spread stayed at 1pt.......most sites decreased their team totals to 105 & 106 or 105.5 each (the spread was very close to pk)................but occassionally bookies, very focused on their game lines, forget about team totals and leave the old ones up........106 and 107.........both of these lines, particularly the 107 for New Orleans (since the game is going closer to a pk) have value. 1pt difference at this high of a total is worth approx 2% and that is for the game total...........the individual team total difference of 1pt is worth closer to 3.5%........enough to overcome -110 and even -115.