Regression and Appreciation

Regression and Appreciation of skills does not usually occur in a linear fashion.

When valuing a player for your fantasy baseball team, this is an important point to note. I took a look at many older players in this year's draft trying to find one thing, "Which older player, who's skills are potentially regressing is going to regress in a non-linear fashion and potentially have an uptick in numbers. This situation occurred last year with Carlos Delgado........after having a geriatric year in 2007, he had a huge year in 2008. I don't think a lot of people would disagree that his skills have regressed, and if you asked people after the 2007 season, they would've said his skills are on a downward path, but regresssion doesn't occur in a linear fashion, so while Delgado is regressing as age catches up with him, he (and others) have the chance to have an uptick in numbers during their regression and can be available at a fraction of the price that these type of numbers would normally cost.

The same goes for appreciation, young players sometimes appreciation in a rapid fashion instead of a linear one. This topic though has been hashed and rehashed, which is why you hear the theory of the 27 year old season and the break out season. But few people focus on those older players that will have a non-linear regression (in a positive manner, as players could fall off a cliff and become horrible quickly also, like Mo Vaughn did). The players who provide a positive uptick can make the difference between winning your league and floating in mediocrity.

Here is a group of players to watch for an uptick in numbers due to a non-linear regression

Paul Konerko
Luis Castillo
Miguel Tejada
Scott Rolen
Todd Helton
Ken Griffey Jr
Jason Varitek
Nomar Garciaparra
Gary Sheffield