Hindsight Bias

Hindsight bias is the inclination to see events that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place.

I included a sentence definition for emphasis, but really what I am trying to alert the readers to is that Hindsight bias is useless, often harmful. In gambling, hindsight bias, has absolutely no place, making the best decision, with the available information is the end all be all. The reason I bring this up, is I all too often here people say, especially after picking a side in a sporting event, or picking their fantasy team "Well, we will see how it turns out" .............actually, how it turns out is just a tiny piece of the long run, what is really important is making the best choice at the time and place in which you do it. Just because you win a sports bet or your fantasy team does well, doesn't mean you made the best choices possible. In betting sports, you could've taken a line that was significantly worse than market, but still won..........when putting your fantasy team together you could've made egregious errors in drafting and had a couple of guys come out of nowhere to help you out. In a poker game you could get the money in badly several times in a row and win.............so "How it turns out" doesn't have much to do with making good decisions.