I was out yesterday having a few adult beverages and watching my beloved Bears.......a few of my friends know about my "hobbies" and one of them asked me how I was doing on the props I bet as results were coming in..........it was a comedy of errors as I told him my wins and losses because after each win he would comment "I would've bet that too" and after each loss he would comment "Oh, I don't like that bet"........lets disregard the fact that some of the wins, the market closed against me or neutral.......ie, I bet at -115 and the line closed at -115 or -105 or +110.........and some of the losses I bet at -115 and they closed at -130 or -150 or -180.......my friend has a wicked case of hindsight bias.
Hindsight bias is incredibly dangerous in all walks of life, but definitely in gambling........if you have a case of hindsight bias, please either read NNT's boox or DON'T TAKE MANY RISKS.
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