Okay, almost no posts in the last calendar year, and now 3 in one day, wtf...........stfu.
Anywho, I have been thinking a lot more about networking.............when I say networking, I am thinking about all types, business, social, hobby, career, etc............I know that in the past when I have spent time on networking, it has been fruitful, not always in the manner in which I intended, but you get the second order effects that Nassim Taleb discusses in his books.
I see something like this as a venture with unlimited upside.............we shall see.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Risks......lmao
The longer I have been an advantage player, the more I notice certain things in life that seem ridiculous.
People in general don't understand risk or evaluate it correctly. Pretty much everyone is guilty of this in some respect and all we can really do is hope to realize it and adjust as much of it as possible.
In the past week, I have had conversations with people about others that are willing to take outlandish risks with potential harms to themselves and their family without considering or even stressing out about those risks..............mind you, these risks have a non-0 upside, but its really small, too small to measure. On the other hand, the same folks will worry endlessly about other risks that are inconsequential..............now, I am not talking about dread risk type stuff...........that stuff has some validity in life, I am talking about small stuff that shouldn't even register as risk.
People in general don't understand risk or evaluate it correctly. Pretty much everyone is guilty of this in some respect and all we can really do is hope to realize it and adjust as much of it as possible.
In the past week, I have had conversations with people about others that are willing to take outlandish risks with potential harms to themselves and their family without considering or even stressing out about those risks..............mind you, these risks have a non-0 upside, but its really small, too small to measure. On the other hand, the same folks will worry endlessly about other risks that are inconsequential..............now, I am not talking about dread risk type stuff...........that stuff has some validity in life, I am talking about small stuff that shouldn't even register as risk.
Nobody thinks.........they just do
More and more I have been encountering real life examples as well as literature that notes that people don't make decisions/choices based on factual evidence, but on their own biases and opinions, regardless of what the evidence.
This somewhat shocks me from the point of view of someone who is a fan of economic theory.........we are all supposed to be incentivized to make the best choices for ourselves, but more and more it appears that this it he furthest thing from the truth.
While I still have no intention to point this out to anyone other than my readership (which is somewhere between 0 and less than 0), I do want to make note of this for my own life to ensure that I am at least considering the available info before doing whatever.
This somewhat shocks me from the point of view of someone who is a fan of economic theory.........we are all supposed to be incentivized to make the best choices for ourselves, but more and more it appears that this it he furthest thing from the truth.
While I still have no intention to point this out to anyone other than my readership (which is somewhere between 0 and less than 0), I do want to make note of this for my own life to ensure that I am at least considering the available info before doing whatever.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Home Poker
Due to the recent changes in the enforcement of US Laws, ie PokerStars and FullTilt being blasted off into Bolivia (per Mike Tyson).........I have decided to start up a home game. I have been searching around for information on how to run a home game properly, not necessarily rules and equipment, that sort of thing will bare itself out quickly. I am much more interested in how to get a good consistent pool of players to be interested and play and eventually move up stakes so that it is a worthwhile money making situation. I know one thing, I need to have free booze.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Kelly Betting
Today was the first time in a while that I was faced with a bet, that based on my kelly staking and the edge, made me feel uneasy...........it wasn't an astronomically huge bet based other advantage players.........but for me, it seemed large.
Thanks to Serbia for coming through versus Germany and covering.........glad I didn't get scared and hedge.
Thanks to Serbia for coming through versus Germany and covering.........glad I didn't get scared and hedge.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Learning to Learn
I just read a post on a gambling forum that is typical of the average person walking this earth. The poster wrote a paragraph how they want to cut through all of the BS and learn how to bet sports for a living from someone who knows what they are doing and can teach them, X, Y & Z. But the poster claimed they weren't looking for a handout.
These types of posts are symbolic of the human condition, at least in the small pool that I wade through (either the Chicago Metro area, or the interwebs)..........everyone WANTS to have a great body, everyone WANTS to make more money....yada, yada, yada........the list is endless of things people want to do............but actually doing......that means you need to learn how first. Learning to Learn. People really don't want to do that, for a myriad of reasons, but mostly because applying yourself is tough and you fail a lot in the process.
I was too upset by the posters utter lack of perspective on the situation (ie, asking for handout in a competitive market that only has a small float out there to begin with)..........but if I was going to give him a hint, it would be this.
"All the things you need are sitting out there on the internet, it takes a little digging, and the ability to learn, but you can find them. Judging by your post though, you won't. Good day."
These types of posts are symbolic of the human condition, at least in the small pool that I wade through (either the Chicago Metro area, or the interwebs)..........everyone WANTS to have a great body, everyone WANTS to make more money....yada, yada, yada........the list is endless of things people want to do............but actually doing......that means you need to learn how first. Learning to Learn. People really don't want to do that, for a myriad of reasons, but mostly because applying yourself is tough and you fail a lot in the process.
I was too upset by the posters utter lack of perspective on the situation (ie, asking for handout in a competitive market that only has a small float out there to begin with)..........but if I was going to give him a hint, it would be this.
"All the things you need are sitting out there on the internet, it takes a little digging, and the ability to learn, but you can find them. Judging by your post though, you won't. Good day."
Monday, May 10, 2010
Time Value of Money
A very wise person warned me that betting futures isn't generally the best allocation of funds for someone with a small bankroll (anything under 100k).
Of course, I didn't listen and plopped down $500 on a future wager on March 19, 2010. This wager will be settled September 1, 2010....and the wager had a 19% edge. Pretty substantial for any bet.............then I wanted to barf when thinking about this...............if I had simply NOT bet the future and bet on various other opportunities that came up over the course of the 23 weeks...........even at a conservative 2% advantage and rolling that $500 over once a week.........my $500 would have accrued an expected value of $288 ($788 total), instead of the $95 that I garnered with that future bet.
I should listen to those wiser than I
Of course, I didn't listen and plopped down $500 on a future wager on March 19, 2010. This wager will be settled September 1, 2010....and the wager had a 19% edge. Pretty substantial for any bet.............then I wanted to barf when thinking about this...............if I had simply NOT bet the future and bet on various other opportunities that came up over the course of the 23 weeks...........even at a conservative 2% advantage and rolling that $500 over once a week.........my $500 would have accrued an expected value of $288 ($788 total), instead of the $95 that I garnered with that future bet.
I should listen to those wiser than I
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
F Balance/Cover, Play Optimally!
I just listened to a great podcast on DeucePlays which is on www.deucescracked.com
The show is hosted by Bart Hanson and is a spinoff of his old show on PokerRoad, called Cash Plays. This podcast is from September and features a professional poker player nicknamed Limon on 2+2. He is mainly a live player in LA and he discusses many informative issues for the advantage player (even though currently his main focus is poker). One particular item struck a chord with me and it is something it took me a long time to figure out. A lot of podcasts, books, articles tend to talk about deception as an important part of any advantage play, whether it be balancing in poker, cover plays in blackjack or sportsbetting, etc..........but Limon has a different take.......
(Paraphrased)......I don't worry about my image and I don't have a set preflop raise amount either, I just make the most optimal play everytime, assuming that the play will never get exploited.........if the play does get exploited, then I figure out what adjustments I need to make........but most people you play against won't be able to figure out what you are doing and your play won't need any adjustments.
This is an important concept, in poker, blackjack or sportsbetting.........its probably best to make the most optimal play, until it doesn't work anymore because your opponents, the pit or the bookmaker figure it out and stop you from doing so. In all of these advantage plays, there are work arounds after you are figured out, so why leave money on the table in these situations when there is a chance you may not be figured out.
The show is hosted by Bart Hanson and is a spinoff of his old show on PokerRoad, called Cash Plays. This podcast is from September and features a professional poker player nicknamed Limon on 2+2. He is mainly a live player in LA and he discusses many informative issues for the advantage player (even though currently his main focus is poker). One particular item struck a chord with me and it is something it took me a long time to figure out. A lot of podcasts, books, articles tend to talk about deception as an important part of any advantage play, whether it be balancing in poker, cover plays in blackjack or sportsbetting, etc..........but Limon has a different take.......
(Paraphrased)......I don't worry about my image and I don't have a set preflop raise amount either, I just make the most optimal play everytime, assuming that the play will never get exploited.........if the play does get exploited, then I figure out what adjustments I need to make........but most people you play against won't be able to figure out what you are doing and your play won't need any adjustments.
This is an important concept, in poker, blackjack or sportsbetting.........its probably best to make the most optimal play, until it doesn't work anymore because your opponents, the pit or the bookmaker figure it out and stop you from doing so. In all of these advantage plays, there are work arounds after you are figured out, so why leave money on the table in these situations when there is a chance you may not be figured out.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Longtime without a post.....
I have had a long time off since last posting. Rest assure, fun stuff will be on the way. My wife and I have been adjusting to our new life with our daughter Olivia........this really doesn't have much to do with gambling, but it does have to do with my lack of posting.
Currently, I am cruising right along, betting sports as a 2nd job...........and I am currently trying to decide if I want to add poker back into the mix. The game I am considering learning is Pot Limit Omaha - cash. Still not sure if I want to spend the time, or just goof off all summer while I wait for football to come back and provide infinitely more betting opportunities than I have right now.
Currently, I am cruising right along, betting sports as a 2nd job...........and I am currently trying to decide if I want to add poker back into the mix. The game I am considering learning is Pot Limit Omaha - cash. Still not sure if I want to spend the time, or just goof off all summer while I wait for football to come back and provide infinitely more betting opportunities than I have right now.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Finding Bets
Quick hit today about how to find +EV bets in sports betting............my sports betting mentor(s) claim that finding +EV bets is the easiest part of sports betting, while I don't disagree, I think some people could use a hint or two.
A particular bet that I have been focusing on lately are individual team totals in NBA. Everyone knows that there are over/under bets for totals in NBA....ex/Phoenix v New Orleans tonight, had a total of 213 for most of the day. Most books that have NBA team totals were hanging Phoenix 106 and New Orleans 107 (individual team totals). This makes sense, because New Orleans was a 1pt favorite and as you can see, the team totals reflect both the spread of 1pt and combining the team totals you get 213, which is the total for the game. These numbers seem accurate and efficient based on the market, but then...things happen............
About 15 minutes before gametime, the total decreased to 211 and the spread stayed at 1pt.......most sites decreased their team totals to 105 & 106 or 105.5 each (the spread was very close to pk)................but occassionally bookies, very focused on their game lines, forget about team totals and leave the old ones up........106 and 107.........both of these lines, particularly the 107 for New Orleans (since the game is going closer to a pk) have value. 1pt difference at this high of a total is worth approx 2% and that is for the game total...........the individual team total difference of 1pt is worth closer to 3.5%........enough to overcome -110 and even -115.
A particular bet that I have been focusing on lately are individual team totals in NBA. Everyone knows that there are over/under bets for totals in NBA....ex/Phoenix v New Orleans tonight, had a total of 213 for most of the day. Most books that have NBA team totals were hanging Phoenix 106 and New Orleans 107 (individual team totals). This makes sense, because New Orleans was a 1pt favorite and as you can see, the team totals reflect both the spread of 1pt and combining the team totals you get 213, which is the total for the game. These numbers seem accurate and efficient based on the market, but then...things happen............
About 15 minutes before gametime, the total decreased to 211 and the spread stayed at 1pt.......most sites decreased their team totals to 105 & 106 or 105.5 each (the spread was very close to pk)................but occassionally bookies, very focused on their game lines, forget about team totals and leave the old ones up........106 and 107.........both of these lines, particularly the 107 for New Orleans (since the game is going closer to a pk) have value. 1pt difference at this high of a total is worth approx 2% and that is for the game total...........the individual team total difference of 1pt is worth closer to 3.5%........enough to overcome -110 and even -115.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Clairvoyance, Ignorance and Work Ethic
Clairvoyance
I keep up with the ongoings of various internet forums that relate to gambling. At the heart of every gambling endeavor is cold, hard, numeros........other factors do exist and should be considered, but in most gambling markets if you can crunch the numbers you can find out your edge and bet it. Recently there has been a thread on an internet forum where a person is claiming clairvoyance (I think) as their method of beating the market of sportsbetting. While I don't doubt that this sort of thing is possible (its very hard to refute things as impossible, by nature)..........I don't see why/where it belongs in a forum. In my opinion, forums are there to help people understand things, ask questions, relay information..........this really does nothing, but claim clairvoyance, a talent that isn't replicable, therefore adding nothing with the exception of humor to the thread.
I don't doubt the existence of said skills, but if you have these types of skills, it shouldn't be hard to turn them into riches..........so save the chatter on internet forums and collect money.
Ignorance
I told a relative recently that I make money betting sports. I wasn't surprised that it was met with ignorance, but it was funny how the methods weren't questioned at all.........one thing you can count on, with 99.9% of the population is that they believe what they believe and haven't learned to ask appropriate questions to problems. Even if something seems unlikely, you should always question it, get more information,.......there may be fundamental concepts to the endeavor that you never thought of............everyone has a level of ignorance.............but you can fight against it by being aware and questioning things. I know for some topics myself, I really have almost no opinion because I might "feel" a certain way, but I haven't absorbed enough on the topic to understand even the most fundamental concepts related to it.
Work Ethic
I had a few drinks with another Advantage Player last weekend. I am fairly new to the game and although this person is younger than I, this person is much more senior in AP. We began discussing work ethic and how betting can be a grind. I think people visualize AP's as just raking in cash with little or no effort. This is not the case, it requires a work ethic much like many other professions and although I DO NOT gamble professionally, I realize that is the case. I remember reading, many moons ago, a poster on one forum was answering a question of another poster about going pro in poker. The veteran poster (and professional) alerted the poster that it takes the same work ethic and discipline as other professions where you could potentially make more money with less risk. Pretty simple, there is no free lunch and you have to earn what you get.
lastly, I am going to try and post more regularly, and even though my wife and I have a baby on the way (due in 8 days)..........I am going to try to stay on topic and provide gambling content.
I keep up with the ongoings of various internet forums that relate to gambling. At the heart of every gambling endeavor is cold, hard, numeros........other factors do exist and should be considered, but in most gambling markets if you can crunch the numbers you can find out your edge and bet it. Recently there has been a thread on an internet forum where a person is claiming clairvoyance (I think) as their method of beating the market of sportsbetting. While I don't doubt that this sort of thing is possible (its very hard to refute things as impossible, by nature)..........I don't see why/where it belongs in a forum. In my opinion, forums are there to help people understand things, ask questions, relay information..........this really does nothing, but claim clairvoyance, a talent that isn't replicable, therefore adding nothing with the exception of humor to the thread.
I don't doubt the existence of said skills, but if you have these types of skills, it shouldn't be hard to turn them into riches..........so save the chatter on internet forums and collect money.
Ignorance
I told a relative recently that I make money betting sports. I wasn't surprised that it was met with ignorance, but it was funny how the methods weren't questioned at all.........one thing you can count on, with 99.9% of the population is that they believe what they believe and haven't learned to ask appropriate questions to problems. Even if something seems unlikely, you should always question it, get more information,.......there may be fundamental concepts to the endeavor that you never thought of............everyone has a level of ignorance.............but you can fight against it by being aware and questioning things. I know for some topics myself, I really have almost no opinion because I might "feel" a certain way, but I haven't absorbed enough on the topic to understand even the most fundamental concepts related to it.
Work Ethic
I had a few drinks with another Advantage Player last weekend. I am fairly new to the game and although this person is younger than I, this person is much more senior in AP. We began discussing work ethic and how betting can be a grind. I think people visualize AP's as just raking in cash with little or no effort. This is not the case, it requires a work ethic much like many other professions and although I DO NOT gamble professionally, I realize that is the case. I remember reading, many moons ago, a poster on one forum was answering a question of another poster about going pro in poker. The veteran poster (and professional) alerted the poster that it takes the same work ethic and discipline as other professions where you could potentially make more money with less risk. Pretty simple, there is no free lunch and you have to earn what you get.
lastly, I am going to try and post more regularly, and even though my wife and I have a baby on the way (due in 8 days)..........I am going to try to stay on topic and provide gambling content.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
What to do?
I have found myself in a quandry.........I have found a very profitable situation, in which a counterparty will take my bets (at least for now) in a very, very advantageous situation for me. You are probably asking, "How is this a problem?"..........well, as we all know, if someone is willing to bet with you and suddenly find themselves with little or no money from these transactions, they will soon stop engaging in these activities with you..........its kinda like how my home poker game died.........anyway........I need to find a solution.......the way I see it, I have a few options
1) Max bet this situation until it is dead, dead, dead......either the bet stops being offerred, or the counterparty tells me to go away
2) Bet less than the max and hope that not only will I fly under the radar, but the bet will continue to be offerred in perpetuity and I can continue to collect currency
3) Alternative methods and disguises (if you know what I am talking about, then giggle to yourself, if you don't, just know that this is a riskier method, but may be worth it).
My gut tells me I should probably do #1, but my mind says that #2 or #3 are better.....only time will tell
1) Max bet this situation until it is dead, dead, dead......either the bet stops being offerred, or the counterparty tells me to go away
2) Bet less than the max and hope that not only will I fly under the radar, but the bet will continue to be offerred in perpetuity and I can continue to collect currency
3) Alternative methods and disguises (if you know what I am talking about, then giggle to yourself, if you don't, just know that this is a riskier method, but may be worth it).
My gut tells me I should probably do #1, but my mind says that #2 or #3 are better.....only time will tell
Friday, November 20, 2009
Jimmy "the Greek" Snyder
ESPN is airing a special about Jimmy "the Greek" Snyder, basically a "life and times" type special. I watched it the other night and noted a few inconsistencies with the gambling information they provided.
Bookmakers set betting lines to get even action on both sides
While this is usually true for most bookmaking businesses, it is not always true. Books will line shade (shading the line against a public favorite that will likely get bet more than an underdog) and take a position if they believe it is profitable. The idea that a bookmaker can't also be a gambling venture is incorrect. While lots of bookmaking operations will strive for equal action, this is not always the case.
Jimmy the Greek mentions betting his entire bankroll on a bet many times during his career
I am not challenging the validity of this statement, I merely want to note that in a non-perfect arbitrage situation, your expected growth on a bet where you wager your entire bankroll is -X (where X is your bankroll).........meaning, these bets will make an advantage gambler go broke.
Jimmy's story is both interesting and complex. I enjoyed watching the piece, it was clear that he understood how to gain an edge (in various walks of life), but he misunderstood risk management (ie making comments that lead to his demise). I think people should watch it and understand how helpful the NFL Today was in getting Professional Football to the forefront of the American Sports lexicon.
Bookmakers set betting lines to get even action on both sides
While this is usually true for most bookmaking businesses, it is not always true. Books will line shade (shading the line against a public favorite that will likely get bet more than an underdog) and take a position if they believe it is profitable. The idea that a bookmaker can't also be a gambling venture is incorrect. While lots of bookmaking operations will strive for equal action, this is not always the case.
Jimmy the Greek mentions betting his entire bankroll on a bet many times during his career
I am not challenging the validity of this statement, I merely want to note that in a non-perfect arbitrage situation, your expected growth on a bet where you wager your entire bankroll is -X (where X is your bankroll).........meaning, these bets will make an advantage gambler go broke.
Jimmy's story is both interesting and complex. I enjoyed watching the piece, it was clear that he understood how to gain an edge (in various walks of life), but he misunderstood risk management (ie making comments that lead to his demise). I think people should watch it and understand how helpful the NFL Today was in getting Professional Football to the forefront of the American Sports lexicon.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Fantasy Football update
As there is a calling for the current mobnies won in my league (we pay some funds out weekly), I will list them here.
Bigos $20
Rogocki $17
Vinny $20.50
Jonny ATM ($3)
Mickey $12
Chris & Adam $9
Delicious ($1)
JP $16
Petey $7
Bob $22.50
Bigos $20
Rogocki $17
Vinny $20.50
Jonny ATM ($3)
Mickey $12
Chris & Adam $9
Delicious ($1)
JP $16
Petey $7
Bob $22.50
Monday, November 2, 2009
Hindsight Bias
I was out yesterday having a few adult beverages and watching my beloved Bears.......a few of my friends know about my "hobbies" and one of them asked me how I was doing on the props I bet as results were coming in..........it was a comedy of errors as I told him my wins and losses because after each win he would comment "I would've bet that too" and after each loss he would comment "Oh, I don't like that bet"........lets disregard the fact that some of the wins, the market closed against me or neutral.......ie, I bet at -115 and the line closed at -115 or -105 or +110.........and some of the losses I bet at -115 and they closed at -130 or -150 or -180.......my friend has a wicked case of hindsight bias.
Hindsight bias is incredibly dangerous in all walks of life, but definitely in gambling........if you have a case of hindsight bias, please either read NNT's boox or DON'T TAKE MANY RISKS.
Hindsight bias is incredibly dangerous in all walks of life, but definitely in gambling........if you have a case of hindsight bias, please either read NNT's boox or DON'T TAKE MANY RISKS.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Oops!!
In a quest to deposit freely to the various offshore sportsbooks across this planet to pick up bonus money and soft betting lines, I decided to start buying Visa Gift Cards.............unfortunately, I failed to realize that only "International" Visa Gift Cards would serve the purpose of allowing me to do this.
A couple of things I learned today............Sportsbetting is work, and you will fail occassionally (see my example above where I bought a US Only Visa Gift Card that will not help in my quest of mucho depositos)......Finding arbs in derivative or prop markets is pretty easy............if I never truly learn to handicap anything but props, I can keep making small amounts of money in this game.....................If you decide to try and do this (make money at Sportsbetting) don't try and explain the methods to most people, they will mainly give you blank stares as they either think that you are insane and that all sports bettors are degens, or they assume that you are some sports genius...........
In closing, I thought to myself today, all you are really doing is picking up the money that other people are too distracted to see on the ground..............carry on.
A couple of things I learned today............Sportsbetting is work, and you will fail occassionally (see my example above where I bought a US Only Visa Gift Card that will not help in my quest of mucho depositos)......Finding arbs in derivative or prop markets is pretty easy............if I never truly learn to handicap anything but props, I can keep making small amounts of money in this game.....................If you decide to try and do this (make money at Sportsbetting) don't try and explain the methods to most people, they will mainly give you blank stares as they either think that you are insane and that all sports bettors are degens, or they assume that you are some sports genius...........
In closing, I thought to myself today, all you are really doing is picking up the money that other people are too distracted to see on the ground..............carry on.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Arbs and Middles or both....
As I mentioned in the previous post, I am starting to get into sports betting a bit.............not what you usually think of sports betting, my main focus are props and other mathematical type bets.........one example is an Arb (short for Arbitrage), this is a position in which you make 2 bets, and between the two bets you secure a profit...here is an example from about a month ago.....Book A had this line Albert Pujols under 2.5 Hits, Runs, RBI +110, Book B had this line Albert Pujols over 2.5 Hits, Runs, RBI +110, in this example, you could bet both of these lines, in equal increments and guarantee a profit.
Here is an example of a middle.....Book A has Team X -2.5 +105, Book B has Team Y +3.5 -105, bet in proper increments this is a perfect middle in which you can not lose, but you can possibly win both bets if Team X wins by exactly 3 (which in the NFL happens roughly 9.5% of the time and in NCAAF happens around 9.0% of the time).
This weekend, I found a few prop arbs, that also included very tiny middles with them, like this one that I found for the Sunday night game, Book A - Hines Ward under 69.5 rec yds +120 & Book B - Hines Ward over 67.5 yds rec -115, bet in proper increments, this is roughly a 1% arbitrage opportunity...............but it also contains a tiny middle............if Hines Ward has 68 or 69 yds worth of receptions in tonights game, you would hit both sides. This type of bet has a guaranteed profit with the chance for a very big gain if you hit a very slim middle.
The next time you are searching your favorite online books be on the outlook for arbs that contain tiny middles to add additional EV to your gamblings.
Here is an example of a middle.....Book A has Team X -2.5 +105, Book B has Team Y +3.5 -105, bet in proper increments this is a perfect middle in which you can not lose, but you can possibly win both bets if Team X wins by exactly 3 (which in the NFL happens roughly 9.5% of the time and in NCAAF happens around 9.0% of the time).
This weekend, I found a few prop arbs, that also included very tiny middles with them, like this one that I found for the Sunday night game, Book A - Hines Ward under 69.5 rec yds +120 & Book B - Hines Ward over 67.5 yds rec -115, bet in proper increments, this is roughly a 1% arbitrage opportunity...............but it also contains a tiny middle............if Hines Ward has 68 or 69 yds worth of receptions in tonights game, you would hit both sides. This type of bet has a guaranteed profit with the chance for a very big gain if you hit a very slim middle.
The next time you are searching your favorite online books be on the outlook for arbs that contain tiny middles to add additional EV to your gamblings.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Sportsbetting Noob
I have started to dabble in sports betting............right now, I am betting in the fairly small NFL prop betting market........mostly yardage props, but some reception props and other player related stuff.
Props are more easily beatable than game lines for a few reasons
1. The limits are much lower, this creates a much less efficient market as the "smart money" (ie, the pros/syndicates) don't usually bother with these sorts of bets
2. Due to the lower limits, the books don't spend nearly the amount of time they spend handicapping a game line or a derivative of a game line (like a halftime or 1Q line).
3. Since they have a small limit and are offerred often at square books, they are usually shaded in a direction in which the public might want to bet.
A few early observations................
The prop betting market seems to do the follow in the first few weeks
1) Unders seem to be the way to go...............I have found much more value in under bets. My guess is that 75-80% of the bets I have placed have been on unders.
2) Players that the general public doesn't really know, but that the fantasy football geek might know are generally underrated. An example of this is Darren McFadden...........I have been taking over lines on him all season as the books have been offerring very favorable lines on him. Not sure how long that will last, but I am sure others will appear.
3) The books will sometimes offer very profitable under bets on players who have just had an excellent week, but don't truly project to be as good for the rest of the year. Enter, Benjamin Watson, who in week 1, scored 2 TD's in dramatic fashion in a NE victory on Monday night vs Buffalo. Before week 2, I found this bet, Benjamin Watson - Will He Score a TD? NO -155. Basically, the bookmaker priced this prop as if Benjamin Watson scores in roughly 40% of his games. I thought this had to be off, because I just hadn't seen a projection for him to score 7 TD's this year. Then I took a look at his historical numbers......it turns out that in the he hasn't scored 7 TD in a year in his last 5 seasons.
When trying to add a little +EV to your gambling portfolio, try putting a little work/analysis into player props.
Props are more easily beatable than game lines for a few reasons
1. The limits are much lower, this creates a much less efficient market as the "smart money" (ie, the pros/syndicates) don't usually bother with these sorts of bets
2. Due to the lower limits, the books don't spend nearly the amount of time they spend handicapping a game line or a derivative of a game line (like a halftime or 1Q line).
3. Since they have a small limit and are offerred often at square books, they are usually shaded in a direction in which the public might want to bet.
A few early observations................
The prop betting market seems to do the follow in the first few weeks
1) Unders seem to be the way to go...............I have found much more value in under bets. My guess is that 75-80% of the bets I have placed have been on unders.
2) Players that the general public doesn't really know, but that the fantasy football geek might know are generally underrated. An example of this is Darren McFadden...........I have been taking over lines on him all season as the books have been offerring very favorable lines on him. Not sure how long that will last, but I am sure others will appear.
3) The books will sometimes offer very profitable under bets on players who have just had an excellent week, but don't truly project to be as good for the rest of the year. Enter, Benjamin Watson, who in week 1, scored 2 TD's in dramatic fashion in a NE victory on Monday night vs Buffalo. Before week 2, I found this bet, Benjamin Watson - Will He Score a TD? NO -155. Basically, the bookmaker priced this prop as if Benjamin Watson scores in roughly 40% of his games. I thought this had to be off, because I just hadn't seen a projection for him to score 7 TD's this year. Then I took a look at his historical numbers......it turns out that in the he hasn't scored 7 TD in a year in his last 5 seasons.
When trying to add a little +EV to your gambling portfolio, try putting a little work/analysis into player props.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
An Unremarkable Tournament Win
This past Saturday, I won a $4.40 180 man sng on PokerStars. These tournaments run around the clock and a new one starts every time the previous one fills. They are a great training ground for learning tournament poker from a strategy standpoint and from a time commitment standpoint (they generally finish in 4 hours). I would recommend these to anyone looking to learn tournaments or sharpen there tournament skills as you can multitable them and get to a meaningful sample size sooner.
The tournament that I won was completely unremarkable, I didn't make any miraculous plays, I didn't flop top set vs 2nd set to win a big pot. Most of the poker I played was solid, not too tricky and pretty much standard. I did however pay very careful attention to my final table mates and was able to avoid some tough situations and capitalize on others inability to adjust their formulaic ways. Paying careful attention at the final table is far more important than paying additional attention at earlier tables because of the significant differences in payouts at the final table.
I am giving myself a gold star for each of these observations, but realistically, this is something that should always be done.
GOLDSTAR #1 - There was an opponent at my table who seemed pretty solid, played his hands well, and was generally fairly tight. I wasn't particularly watching him to start as he wasn't opening too many pots when we were 8 and 9 handed.........as the play got shorter handed, and I was short stacked so I was observing more than playing flops........I noticed that he began making proper strategy adjustments and opened many more pots............I did notice, however that 2 times, he open limped (when he had otherwise opened with a raise) and in every one of these situations, he overbet the flop. ALARMS were blarring in my head, THIS GUY OPEN LIMPS HIS BIG HANDS,...............fast forward to later in the tournament, we are now 4 handed and pretty evenly stacked (I think i have a slight chip lead), the enemy open limps on my big blind.............I have 88, now normally, against your usual weak tight final table opponent, i would raise this 4 to 5X and pick up the pot...........but I remembered my opponents obvious betting tell and realized that if I raised, he would probably reraise and I would be forced to fold, or if the reraise was small I would have a substantial portion of my stack in the pot in a very tough situation...............so i checked................as if the poker gods were looking down, I got a glorious flop 9,8,2, giving me a set of 8's...........(we are all sitting behind 30 to 40 bb's), I checked, he overbet the pot, I jammed and he called, felting (interwebally) AA, as expected............the board blanked and he berated me for sucking out on him :)
GOLDSTAR #2 - I had a very very tight player to my immediate right when we got 3 handed, which meant, I was on the button when he was on the bb.............when this situation occurs, I find any reason to open the pot with a raise on his bb.............having the biggest stack, the other player stayed out of my way, so I raised liberally, probably over 90% of the time (I am talking the ugliest of hands, like J2, Q4, 10,5 etc).........if he played back, I folded, if he opened a pot on me, I folded...............EZPZ
GOLDSTAR #3 - After the uber-tight player was eliminated, I was left with a loose aggressive opponent as my heads up mate.................I played for a little while with him and realized that he would repop my raise almost 50% of the time and then follow with a continuation bet........one time I even saw him jam the flop when I called his continuation bet..............I wasn't sure if he had anything, but I felt this would be my way to win................I pick up J10s on the button and raise, he obligatorily 3 bets.............and I turn to my wife (who was watching) and tell her.............I have a strong heads up hand with a lot of drawing power.........I am going to flat call and if I hit anything I will win the tournament.................the flop comes Q, 10, 2..............my opponent lobs out a pot sized bet............at this point, I like the flop, but want to reevaluate on the turn, I also want to see how my opponent acts towards me calling...........I call.............turn is a Q, the best card in the deck for me................this means that it is highly improbable that he has a Q, meaning only AA, KK and JJ, a 10 with a better kicker or very rarely 222 has me beat...........I check, my opponent jams the river, and I instacall..........he felts K3s, no pair, no draw and the river blanks.
Playing unremarkably is a good thing most of the time, making the most obvious play is generally best in low limit tournament poker. Also, overlooked is the attention to detail that is necessary when playing a final table, observing opponents and making tough decisions for most of the money is key in tourney poker.
Remember these keys the next donkament you get deep in................
The tournament that I won was completely unremarkable, I didn't make any miraculous plays, I didn't flop top set vs 2nd set to win a big pot. Most of the poker I played was solid, not too tricky and pretty much standard. I did however pay very careful attention to my final table mates and was able to avoid some tough situations and capitalize on others inability to adjust their formulaic ways. Paying careful attention at the final table is far more important than paying additional attention at earlier tables because of the significant differences in payouts at the final table.
I am giving myself a gold star for each of these observations, but realistically, this is something that should always be done.
GOLDSTAR #1 - There was an opponent at my table who seemed pretty solid, played his hands well, and was generally fairly tight. I wasn't particularly watching him to start as he wasn't opening too many pots when we were 8 and 9 handed.........as the play got shorter handed, and I was short stacked so I was observing more than playing flops........I noticed that he began making proper strategy adjustments and opened many more pots............I did notice, however that 2 times, he open limped (when he had otherwise opened with a raise) and in every one of these situations, he overbet the flop. ALARMS were blarring in my head, THIS GUY OPEN LIMPS HIS BIG HANDS,...............fast forward to later in the tournament, we are now 4 handed and pretty evenly stacked (I think i have a slight chip lead), the enemy open limps on my big blind.............I have 88, now normally, against your usual weak tight final table opponent, i would raise this 4 to 5X and pick up the pot...........but I remembered my opponents obvious betting tell and realized that if I raised, he would probably reraise and I would be forced to fold, or if the reraise was small I would have a substantial portion of my stack in the pot in a very tough situation...............so i checked................as if the poker gods were looking down, I got a glorious flop 9,8,2, giving me a set of 8's...........(we are all sitting behind 30 to 40 bb's), I checked, he overbet the pot, I jammed and he called, felting (interwebally) AA, as expected............the board blanked and he berated me for sucking out on him :)
GOLDSTAR #2 - I had a very very tight player to my immediate right when we got 3 handed, which meant, I was on the button when he was on the bb.............when this situation occurs, I find any reason to open the pot with a raise on his bb.............having the biggest stack, the other player stayed out of my way, so I raised liberally, probably over 90% of the time (I am talking the ugliest of hands, like J2, Q4, 10,5 etc).........if he played back, I folded, if he opened a pot on me, I folded...............EZPZ
GOLDSTAR #3 - After the uber-tight player was eliminated, I was left with a loose aggressive opponent as my heads up mate.................I played for a little while with him and realized that he would repop my raise almost 50% of the time and then follow with a continuation bet........one time I even saw him jam the flop when I called his continuation bet..............I wasn't sure if he had anything, but I felt this would be my way to win................I pick up J10s on the button and raise, he obligatorily 3 bets.............and I turn to my wife (who was watching) and tell her.............I have a strong heads up hand with a lot of drawing power.........I am going to flat call and if I hit anything I will win the tournament.................the flop comes Q, 10, 2..............my opponent lobs out a pot sized bet............at this point, I like the flop, but want to reevaluate on the turn, I also want to see how my opponent acts towards me calling...........I call.............turn is a Q, the best card in the deck for me................this means that it is highly improbable that he has a Q, meaning only AA, KK and JJ, a 10 with a better kicker or very rarely 222 has me beat...........I check, my opponent jams the river, and I instacall..........he felts K3s, no pair, no draw and the river blanks.
Playing unremarkably is a good thing most of the time, making the most obvious play is generally best in low limit tournament poker. Also, overlooked is the attention to detail that is necessary when playing a final table, observing opponents and making tough decisions for most of the money is key in tourney poker.
Remember these keys the next donkament you get deep in................
Monday, August 31, 2009
FF Drafting Ideology
When preparing for fantasy football drafts, I have a small outline that I consider my ideology for drafting......
1) In the early rounds (roughly rounds 1 & 2 or 1, 2 & 3) draft high floors, dependable players
2) Pick value, let everyone else make mistakes and you pick up the value left ........having no plan is better than having a plan as things happen that are hard to anticipate
3) At the end of the draft, pick players who will either make a big impact or will be easy to cut, fungible, but potentially potent........
The reason I emphasis these points is that over and above the projections I will use to calculate players values, these 3 guidelines help me to manage risk effectively. With Point 1, I am trying to avoid losing the league, taking safe players, with reasonable injury histories, players that might not be the #1 pick in the near future, but are likely to remain close to this years draft position in future drafts.
Point 2 is basically to remind myself to go with the flow and allow the market to provide opportunities. It is a point that many people have issues with as they like to have a plan of what positions they will draft when and who will be on their team..........not following #2 often ends up costing more than helping..............you might like a certain player and draft that player too early, you might panic during a run, etc..........no need to paint yourself in a corner early.
Point 3 is another that I see as rarely used........in the last third of your draft, you should be selecting the obligatory, K, TE & DEF, as well as players who will either be cut, or make a big difference in your league. In this years draft there are a ton of rookie or 2nd year runningbacks that will either be the starter shortly into the season, get a share of the carries as the #2 or be in prime position to start should an injury prone starter go down. Constantly I see the old stand by wide receiver with very low ceiling being drafted ahead of the high risk high reward rb.........remember, you are buying lottery tix at the end of the draft.
keep these points in mind when undertaking your next draft....
1) In the early rounds (roughly rounds 1 & 2 or 1, 2 & 3) draft high floors, dependable players
2) Pick value, let everyone else make mistakes and you pick up the value left ........having no plan is better than having a plan as things happen that are hard to anticipate
3) At the end of the draft, pick players who will either make a big impact or will be easy to cut, fungible, but potentially potent........
The reason I emphasis these points is that over and above the projections I will use to calculate players values, these 3 guidelines help me to manage risk effectively. With Point 1, I am trying to avoid losing the league, taking safe players, with reasonable injury histories, players that might not be the #1 pick in the near future, but are likely to remain close to this years draft position in future drafts.
Point 2 is basically to remind myself to go with the flow and allow the market to provide opportunities. It is a point that many people have issues with as they like to have a plan of what positions they will draft when and who will be on their team..........not following #2 often ends up costing more than helping..............you might like a certain player and draft that player too early, you might panic during a run, etc..........no need to paint yourself in a corner early.
Point 3 is another that I see as rarely used........in the last third of your draft, you should be selecting the obligatory, K, TE & DEF, as well as players who will either be cut, or make a big difference in your league. In this years draft there are a ton of rookie or 2nd year runningbacks that will either be the starter shortly into the season, get a share of the carries as the #2 or be in prime position to start should an injury prone starter go down. Constantly I see the old stand by wide receiver with very low ceiling being drafted ahead of the high risk high reward rb.........remember, you are buying lottery tix at the end of the draft.
keep these points in mind when undertaking your next draft....
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