Quick hit today about how to find +EV bets in sports betting............my sports betting mentor(s) claim that finding +EV bets is the easiest part of sports betting, while I don't disagree, I think some people could use a hint or two.
A particular bet that I have been focusing on lately are individual team totals in NBA. Everyone knows that there are over/under bets for totals in NBA....ex/Phoenix v New Orleans tonight, had a total of 213 for most of the day. Most books that have NBA team totals were hanging Phoenix 106 and New Orleans 107 (individual team totals). This makes sense, because New Orleans was a 1pt favorite and as you can see, the team totals reflect both the spread of 1pt and combining the team totals you get 213, which is the total for the game. These numbers seem accurate and efficient based on the market, but then...things happen............
About 15 minutes before gametime, the total decreased to 211 and the spread stayed at 1pt.......most sites decreased their team totals to 105 & 106 or 105.5 each (the spread was very close to pk)................but occassionally bookies, very focused on their game lines, forget about team totals and leave the old ones up........106 and 107.........both of these lines, particularly the 107 for New Orleans (since the game is going closer to a pk) have value. 1pt difference at this high of a total is worth approx 2% and that is for the game total...........the individual team total difference of 1pt is worth closer to 3.5%........enough to overcome -110 and even -115.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Monday, January 11, 2010
Clairvoyance, Ignorance and Work Ethic
Clairvoyance
I keep up with the ongoings of various internet forums that relate to gambling. At the heart of every gambling endeavor is cold, hard, numeros........other factors do exist and should be considered, but in most gambling markets if you can crunch the numbers you can find out your edge and bet it. Recently there has been a thread on an internet forum where a person is claiming clairvoyance (I think) as their method of beating the market of sportsbetting. While I don't doubt that this sort of thing is possible (its very hard to refute things as impossible, by nature)..........I don't see why/where it belongs in a forum. In my opinion, forums are there to help people understand things, ask questions, relay information..........this really does nothing, but claim clairvoyance, a talent that isn't replicable, therefore adding nothing with the exception of humor to the thread.
I don't doubt the existence of said skills, but if you have these types of skills, it shouldn't be hard to turn them into riches..........so save the chatter on internet forums and collect money.
Ignorance
I told a relative recently that I make money betting sports. I wasn't surprised that it was met with ignorance, but it was funny how the methods weren't questioned at all.........one thing you can count on, with 99.9% of the population is that they believe what they believe and haven't learned to ask appropriate questions to problems. Even if something seems unlikely, you should always question it, get more information,.......there may be fundamental concepts to the endeavor that you never thought of............everyone has a level of ignorance.............but you can fight against it by being aware and questioning things. I know for some topics myself, I really have almost no opinion because I might "feel" a certain way, but I haven't absorbed enough on the topic to understand even the most fundamental concepts related to it.
Work Ethic
I had a few drinks with another Advantage Player last weekend. I am fairly new to the game and although this person is younger than I, this person is much more senior in AP. We began discussing work ethic and how betting can be a grind. I think people visualize AP's as just raking in cash with little or no effort. This is not the case, it requires a work ethic much like many other professions and although I DO NOT gamble professionally, I realize that is the case. I remember reading, many moons ago, a poster on one forum was answering a question of another poster about going pro in poker. The veteran poster (and professional) alerted the poster that it takes the same work ethic and discipline as other professions where you could potentially make more money with less risk. Pretty simple, there is no free lunch and you have to earn what you get.
lastly, I am going to try and post more regularly, and even though my wife and I have a baby on the way (due in 8 days)..........I am going to try to stay on topic and provide gambling content.
I keep up with the ongoings of various internet forums that relate to gambling. At the heart of every gambling endeavor is cold, hard, numeros........other factors do exist and should be considered, but in most gambling markets if you can crunch the numbers you can find out your edge and bet it. Recently there has been a thread on an internet forum where a person is claiming clairvoyance (I think) as their method of beating the market of sportsbetting. While I don't doubt that this sort of thing is possible (its very hard to refute things as impossible, by nature)..........I don't see why/where it belongs in a forum. In my opinion, forums are there to help people understand things, ask questions, relay information..........this really does nothing, but claim clairvoyance, a talent that isn't replicable, therefore adding nothing with the exception of humor to the thread.
I don't doubt the existence of said skills, but if you have these types of skills, it shouldn't be hard to turn them into riches..........so save the chatter on internet forums and collect money.
Ignorance
I told a relative recently that I make money betting sports. I wasn't surprised that it was met with ignorance, but it was funny how the methods weren't questioned at all.........one thing you can count on, with 99.9% of the population is that they believe what they believe and haven't learned to ask appropriate questions to problems. Even if something seems unlikely, you should always question it, get more information,.......there may be fundamental concepts to the endeavor that you never thought of............everyone has a level of ignorance.............but you can fight against it by being aware and questioning things. I know for some topics myself, I really have almost no opinion because I might "feel" a certain way, but I haven't absorbed enough on the topic to understand even the most fundamental concepts related to it.
Work Ethic
I had a few drinks with another Advantage Player last weekend. I am fairly new to the game and although this person is younger than I, this person is much more senior in AP. We began discussing work ethic and how betting can be a grind. I think people visualize AP's as just raking in cash with little or no effort. This is not the case, it requires a work ethic much like many other professions and although I DO NOT gamble professionally, I realize that is the case. I remember reading, many moons ago, a poster on one forum was answering a question of another poster about going pro in poker. The veteran poster (and professional) alerted the poster that it takes the same work ethic and discipline as other professions where you could potentially make more money with less risk. Pretty simple, there is no free lunch and you have to earn what you get.
lastly, I am going to try and post more regularly, and even though my wife and I have a baby on the way (due in 8 days)..........I am going to try to stay on topic and provide gambling content.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
What to do?
I have found myself in a quandry.........I have found a very profitable situation, in which a counterparty will take my bets (at least for now) in a very, very advantageous situation for me. You are probably asking, "How is this a problem?"..........well, as we all know, if someone is willing to bet with you and suddenly find themselves with little or no money from these transactions, they will soon stop engaging in these activities with you..........its kinda like how my home poker game died.........anyway........I need to find a solution.......the way I see it, I have a few options
1) Max bet this situation until it is dead, dead, dead......either the bet stops being offerred, or the counterparty tells me to go away
2) Bet less than the max and hope that not only will I fly under the radar, but the bet will continue to be offerred in perpetuity and I can continue to collect currency
3) Alternative methods and disguises (if you know what I am talking about, then giggle to yourself, if you don't, just know that this is a riskier method, but may be worth it).
My gut tells me I should probably do #1, but my mind says that #2 or #3 are better.....only time will tell
1) Max bet this situation until it is dead, dead, dead......either the bet stops being offerred, or the counterparty tells me to go away
2) Bet less than the max and hope that not only will I fly under the radar, but the bet will continue to be offerred in perpetuity and I can continue to collect currency
3) Alternative methods and disguises (if you know what I am talking about, then giggle to yourself, if you don't, just know that this is a riskier method, but may be worth it).
My gut tells me I should probably do #1, but my mind says that #2 or #3 are better.....only time will tell
Friday, November 20, 2009
Jimmy "the Greek" Snyder
ESPN is airing a special about Jimmy "the Greek" Snyder, basically a "life and times" type special. I watched it the other night and noted a few inconsistencies with the gambling information they provided.
Bookmakers set betting lines to get even action on both sides
While this is usually true for most bookmaking businesses, it is not always true. Books will line shade (shading the line against a public favorite that will likely get bet more than an underdog) and take a position if they believe it is profitable. The idea that a bookmaker can't also be a gambling venture is incorrect. While lots of bookmaking operations will strive for equal action, this is not always the case.
Jimmy the Greek mentions betting his entire bankroll on a bet many times during his career
I am not challenging the validity of this statement, I merely want to note that in a non-perfect arbitrage situation, your expected growth on a bet where you wager your entire bankroll is -X (where X is your bankroll).........meaning, these bets will make an advantage gambler go broke.
Jimmy's story is both interesting and complex. I enjoyed watching the piece, it was clear that he understood how to gain an edge (in various walks of life), but he misunderstood risk management (ie making comments that lead to his demise). I think people should watch it and understand how helpful the NFL Today was in getting Professional Football to the forefront of the American Sports lexicon.
Bookmakers set betting lines to get even action on both sides
While this is usually true for most bookmaking businesses, it is not always true. Books will line shade (shading the line against a public favorite that will likely get bet more than an underdog) and take a position if they believe it is profitable. The idea that a bookmaker can't also be a gambling venture is incorrect. While lots of bookmaking operations will strive for equal action, this is not always the case.
Jimmy the Greek mentions betting his entire bankroll on a bet many times during his career
I am not challenging the validity of this statement, I merely want to note that in a non-perfect arbitrage situation, your expected growth on a bet where you wager your entire bankroll is -X (where X is your bankroll).........meaning, these bets will make an advantage gambler go broke.
Jimmy's story is both interesting and complex. I enjoyed watching the piece, it was clear that he understood how to gain an edge (in various walks of life), but he misunderstood risk management (ie making comments that lead to his demise). I think people should watch it and understand how helpful the NFL Today was in getting Professional Football to the forefront of the American Sports lexicon.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Fantasy Football update
As there is a calling for the current mobnies won in my league (we pay some funds out weekly), I will list them here.
Bigos $20
Rogocki $17
Vinny $20.50
Jonny ATM ($3)
Mickey $12
Chris & Adam $9
Delicious ($1)
JP $16
Petey $7
Bob $22.50
Bigos $20
Rogocki $17
Vinny $20.50
Jonny ATM ($3)
Mickey $12
Chris & Adam $9
Delicious ($1)
JP $16
Petey $7
Bob $22.50
Monday, November 2, 2009
Hindsight Bias
I was out yesterday having a few adult beverages and watching my beloved Bears.......a few of my friends know about my "hobbies" and one of them asked me how I was doing on the props I bet as results were coming in..........it was a comedy of errors as I told him my wins and losses because after each win he would comment "I would've bet that too" and after each loss he would comment "Oh, I don't like that bet"........lets disregard the fact that some of the wins, the market closed against me or neutral.......ie, I bet at -115 and the line closed at -115 or -105 or +110.........and some of the losses I bet at -115 and they closed at -130 or -150 or -180.......my friend has a wicked case of hindsight bias.
Hindsight bias is incredibly dangerous in all walks of life, but definitely in gambling........if you have a case of hindsight bias, please either read NNT's boox or DON'T TAKE MANY RISKS.
Hindsight bias is incredibly dangerous in all walks of life, but definitely in gambling........if you have a case of hindsight bias, please either read NNT's boox or DON'T TAKE MANY RISKS.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Oops!!
In a quest to deposit freely to the various offshore sportsbooks across this planet to pick up bonus money and soft betting lines, I decided to start buying Visa Gift Cards.............unfortunately, I failed to realize that only "International" Visa Gift Cards would serve the purpose of allowing me to do this.
A couple of things I learned today............Sportsbetting is work, and you will fail occassionally (see my example above where I bought a US Only Visa Gift Card that will not help in my quest of mucho depositos)......Finding arbs in derivative or prop markets is pretty easy............if I never truly learn to handicap anything but props, I can keep making small amounts of money in this game.....................If you decide to try and do this (make money at Sportsbetting) don't try and explain the methods to most people, they will mainly give you blank stares as they either think that you are insane and that all sports bettors are degens, or they assume that you are some sports genius...........
In closing, I thought to myself today, all you are really doing is picking up the money that other people are too distracted to see on the ground..............carry on.
A couple of things I learned today............Sportsbetting is work, and you will fail occassionally (see my example above where I bought a US Only Visa Gift Card that will not help in my quest of mucho depositos)......Finding arbs in derivative or prop markets is pretty easy............if I never truly learn to handicap anything but props, I can keep making small amounts of money in this game.....................If you decide to try and do this (make money at Sportsbetting) don't try and explain the methods to most people, they will mainly give you blank stares as they either think that you are insane and that all sports bettors are degens, or they assume that you are some sports genius...........
In closing, I thought to myself today, all you are really doing is picking up the money that other people are too distracted to see on the ground..............carry on.
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