1 month in.....trade values

BUY LOW, SELL HIGH............this is a phrase commonly used in conjunction with every commodity and is no different in fantasy sports. I had an email discussion with a friend who I have played fantasy sports with for many years. The basis of the discussion is how some players values have fluctuated significantly 1 month into the season and other players values haven't moved much even though you would think their performance would lead you to believe otherwise.

I'll take one step back, in this entry, when I discuss trades I am only discussing a players absolute value. This will make this entry more focused, because a players categorical value to your team may exceed his absolute value and thus change the context of the discussion (also, I want to write extensively about this in later entries).

The main player we discussed in this exchange was Jimmy Rollins. My friend felt that even though he has gotten off to an awful start, (hitting around .200 with an obp below .300 and only 1 HR and 1 SB in the first month) his trade value hadn't decreased at all in the leagues he is in. He proclaimed to me "A person would be foolish to pay full price for Rollins".

While I agree with him about paying full price (I hate to do that in any trade I make)............I want to dig into some ideas here.

PERCEIVED VALUE

A players perceived value can change based on various things, from a hot/cold start, comments by a manager, an adjustment to his place in the batting order, a piece of news about his health, valid or not, (remember the Pujols news last year) a change in his role/usage, an adjustment in skill set (various items, too many to name), etc. All of these items combine to create a perceived value for owners in a particular league.

Of these items, a few of them can change a players actual value.

Adjustment in batting order position - Could increase/decrease RBI/R opportunities, could also lead to more or less SB opportunities, or in the extreme case of a player changing from lead off to 8th in the NL, could lead to a lot more walks and less power (Cameron Maybin)

News about a players health - this one is difficult to judge because it tends to be very noisy and often unreliable.........plus, some players play just fine with pain, Carlos Zambrano has pitched through a painful shoulder for 3 years now, Albert Pujols has put up gigantic numbers with a bum elbow for his entire career

Adjustment in role/usage - This is probably the most reliable of the adjustments, but also the most widely available information as well. If Manny Corpas is no longer the closer, then his value takes a huge decrease

Adjustment in skill set - very difficult to judge and can only be relied upon through 1 month of data in extreme cases

In the case of our Jimmy Rollins discussion, yes he is in a terrible slump, his BABIP is almost 70 points lower than his career average (currently at .233 for the 2009 campaign and his career is .299) and while his LD% is lower than his career (with his GB% up) this could just be a short term anomaly.............his K% is right on with his career numbers......and his BB% is low, but again it is still early. The lack of running might be a direct result of his lack of actually being on base. So I don't necessarily fault owners who aren't ready to give up on a top 3 SS with 1 month of poor results.

I do not think Rollins is hurt, that his skill set has changed, or that Charlie Manuel plans to use him in any capacity different than normal (although on Saturday vs Oliver Perez, he hit Rollins 5th)

Back to the discussion............while we hope that perceived value increases the value of our lower round picks and decreases the value of other teams top picks, it doesn't always do that...........we are searching for those fleeting opportunities.............and they do sometimes arise. In my experience you need to find guys that people have been predicting to break out and who have for the 1st month...........

Potential Sell High's Curtis Granderson, Zack Greinke, Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Hill, Adam Jones, Adam Lind, Andre Either, Yovanni Gallardo, Johnny Cueto, Josh Johnson..............these players could all represent sell high opportunites.

On the flip side, to buy low, you need to find those guys that people have been predicting breakdown for and who look like they are breaking down or who's skills are regressing in the 1st month.............

Potential Buy Low's CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Holliday, Alexei Ramirez, David Ortiz, Geovanny Soto, Derrek Lee, Chris Young, Mike Aviles........

These are a collection of injury risks, players with skill regression risks, or career year risks......

All in all, the correct way to value trades at this point is to lop off 1/6 of the projection from all of the players involved and go with it. Unless you see an actual adjustment in value for a player that you believe to be true, this is the most prudent way to attack trading at the 1 month pole.

So to answer the question, most owners who are being cautious with Rollins are probably right to do so and shouldn't just give him up for Nelson Cruz and Felipe Lopez (which is how I acquired him a week ago).