Sunday, May 31, 2009

Taking Stock after 2 Months

Okay, as we approach June 1, we all inevitably have teams that are out in 1st and looking great, but we also have teams that aren't looking so good, maybe you have Manny Ramirez and he is suspended, maybe you have Joey Votto and his puzzling ailments.........maybe you drafted a group of starters like Lester, Liriano, Baker, Nolasco and Webb.......and now are sunk in the pitching categories even though you spent a bunch on these guys. It is time to take stock in our teams and decide a course of action.

1) What are our weaknesses? It is important to assess these and it takes more than looking at league standings. I have a team that is woeful in SB's (mainly because I needed Cameron Maybin to help), and I am also last in that category in my league, but that might not be the case in all scenarios. Maybe you have a very solid R,HR,RBI team, but they have just underproduced in the early term, so you can afford to sit tight and be patient. Maybe you are shy in SB's, but you have Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, guys who always run a lot, but just haven't gotten going yet. You might have a void in Saves, which is common and have been unable to land a good speculative play for saves up to this point. When assessing, make rough calculations to see how many points you could acquire if you grab a player or two to help these numbers based on the 1st 1/3 of the year.

2) What categories are most vulnerable in my league? This is something you can look at that standings and other rosters and figure out quite quickly. Maybe you are devoit in Saves and 4 other teams are hovering right about you, then you could make 1 move and grab 4 points quickly. Maybe runs is something to attack as your league is tightly bunched, you might give excess elsewhere to get a high runs guy to fill in, or you could go out and grab a guy like Ryan Sweeney who is available in the majority of non-AL Only leagues and is producing runs quite nicely. This is very important analysis, because you could be low in a category and have no real chance to gain many points already. I am in an NL Only league in which one team has a .213 batting average......this is 40 points behind the next team and way out of contention of scoring more points in this league. If that is the case, time to punt and go after other categories.

3) What do I have to exchange to get what I need? One caveat, if what you need is readily available on the free agent market, it is important to assess the droppability of certain players (categorically as the value to your team or other teams might exceed your needs), this is food for an entire different blog, so I will stop here with this thought, but be sure to weigh your options carefully. If you have excess of something, maybe you are in a deep league and have 3 closers, then you have a trading chip to gather what you need. Take a look at your excesses and any players that you feel are fungible and find what you need in the market.

4) When possible, make small trades over big trades. I am stealing this thought from Jon Williams who's excellent blog Advanced Fantasy Baseball tackles this idea in more detail. You can often get a lot done by making a few small deals instead of 1 big deal. Most owners are more than willing to deal smaller pieces for other smaller pieces. Remember, some owners treat their top picks like their children....it is hard to buy most people's children.

5) Don't be afraid to overpay!!! I can't stress this enough, if you are a good drafter of value, then you should be fine overpaying to get what you need. I am in a 10 team head to head league and I had 5 closers (kinda ridiculous, I know)..........I decided to trade Jon Papelbon, and was willing to take a significant discount to get a power hitter. I ended up landing exactly the guy I wanted, Carlos Quentin (unfortunately his injury creeped up again), although I was willing to pay much less to get a need.

In closing, take stock in your team now, and be ready to move when you get the chance, remember, the goal is to win (or at least finish in the money position in) your league, so don't be afraid to make brash, calculated adjustments to your roster.

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