This blog isn't just about fantasy sports, I want to keep all of my casino gamblers interested here. Here are is a short list of easy advantage plays.
1) Taking someone elses double down - this play works with a novice BlackJack player who may be too afraid to double down. You offer to pay the double down, making you partners on the hand..............what lots of people don't realize is that the reason you double down is that the hand match ups in which it is called for are +EV for the player, so getting more money out there is advantageous...
2) Gambling Coupons - Casino Royale is one of my favorite Las Vegas Strip Casinos because once a month they hand you a fist full of coupons including BlackJacks pay 2 to 1, or various hand pays on Video Poker machines. The EV of various coupons differ, but they are generally positive EV............Buying the American Casino Guide or a subscription to Las Vegas Advisor would give you enough coupons to satisfy a beginners coupon playing itch.
3) Free drinks - in moderation obviously, or if you are playing a game that doesn't have a varying edge based on skill.............if you can bet $5 on the pass line of a craps game and get 2 call drinks in an hour, you are beating the game.
I'll get into more ways to enjoy your gambling experience, but these are a few to wet your whistle.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Friday, June 12, 2009
Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias is the inclination to see events that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place.
I included a sentence definition for emphasis, but really what I am trying to alert the readers to is that Hindsight bias is useless, often harmful. In gambling, hindsight bias, has absolutely no place, making the best decision, with the available information is the end all be all. The reason I bring this up, is I all too often here people say, especially after picking a side in a sporting event, or picking their fantasy team "Well, we will see how it turns out" .............actually, how it turns out is just a tiny piece of the long run, what is really important is making the best choice at the time and place in which you do it. Just because you win a sports bet or your fantasy team does well, doesn't mean you made the best choices possible. In betting sports, you could've taken a line that was significantly worse than market, but still won..........when putting your fantasy team together you could've made egregious errors in drafting and had a couple of guys come out of nowhere to help you out. In a poker game you could get the money in badly several times in a row and win.............so "How it turns out" doesn't have much to do with making good decisions.
I included a sentence definition for emphasis, but really what I am trying to alert the readers to is that Hindsight bias is useless, often harmful. In gambling, hindsight bias, has absolutely no place, making the best decision, with the available information is the end all be all. The reason I bring this up, is I all too often here people say, especially after picking a side in a sporting event, or picking their fantasy team "Well, we will see how it turns out" .............actually, how it turns out is just a tiny piece of the long run, what is really important is making the best choice at the time and place in which you do it. Just because you win a sports bet or your fantasy team does well, doesn't mean you made the best choices possible. In betting sports, you could've taken a line that was significantly worse than market, but still won..........when putting your fantasy team together you could've made egregious errors in drafting and had a couple of guys come out of nowhere to help you out. In a poker game you could get the money in badly several times in a row and win.............so "How it turns out" doesn't have much to do with making good decisions.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Fantasy Baseball - Nothing Trades
Earlier this week, I offerred a Nothing Trade to another team. I consider these an important part of fantasy team management.
A Nothing Trade would be defined as a trade that doesn't necessarily improve either team, but moves players (sometimes of the same position) and similar relative value (generally both categorically and absolute) to other teams. The reason to make these deals is more in the way of creating trading partners.................this is important, because when you do need something down the line, you have an open line of communication with the other team and can more easily create a deal.
I generally try making these types of deals with new teams in my league, mainly just to try and get them dealing. I think leagues function better when there is some trading going on, some ability to inneract with the other teams. If the league is strictly based on pickups and the draft, you really don't have a league that is fluid and therefore you probably aren't getting the most out of your league.
Consider making a nothing trade with another team, just see how it goes, and maybe you'll make them very happy with a new player of similar value, and later you can get a deal done that might help you get something you need.
A Nothing Trade would be defined as a trade that doesn't necessarily improve either team, but moves players (sometimes of the same position) and similar relative value (generally both categorically and absolute) to other teams. The reason to make these deals is more in the way of creating trading partners.................this is important, because when you do need something down the line, you have an open line of communication with the other team and can more easily create a deal.
I generally try making these types of deals with new teams in my league, mainly just to try and get them dealing. I think leagues function better when there is some trading going on, some ability to inneract with the other teams. If the league is strictly based on pickups and the draft, you really don't have a league that is fluid and therefore you probably aren't getting the most out of your league.
Consider making a nothing trade with another team, just see how it goes, and maybe you'll make them very happy with a new player of similar value, and later you can get a deal done that might help you get something you need.
Friday, June 5, 2009
Dumpster Divin'
The last few weeks I have been dumpster divin' in various leagues. What is that you say? I have been trading for or picking up another man's trash. Instead of buying low, I am buying real low in hopes to find a treasure. In the past week or so, I have grabbed up the following players in 12 to 15 team leagues, in hopes of a big payoff
David Ortiz
Garrett Atkins
Scott Baker (multiple times)
Francisco Liriano
Conor Jackson (yes I know he has Valley Fever)
and shortly Ricky Nolasco
The moral of the story is, sometimes you want to grab a very cheap commodity for the chance at one large strike. It is kind of like buying out of the money options, or like buying lottery tickets, you know your probability might not be that high, but if you hit, it will pay huge dividends.
In the coming weeks, start looking at the changing of situations, ie, who are contenders and who aren't (mostly who aren't) as their lineups will change and players who are widely available now, might be a very valuable. Matt LaPorta and Travis Snider being prime examples.
David Ortiz
Garrett Atkins
Scott Baker (multiple times)
Francisco Liriano
Conor Jackson (yes I know he has Valley Fever)
and shortly Ricky Nolasco
The moral of the story is, sometimes you want to grab a very cheap commodity for the chance at one large strike. It is kind of like buying out of the money options, or like buying lottery tickets, you know your probability might not be that high, but if you hit, it will pay huge dividends.
In the coming weeks, start looking at the changing of situations, ie, who are contenders and who aren't (mostly who aren't) as their lineups will change and players who are widely available now, might be a very valuable. Matt LaPorta and Travis Snider being prime examples.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Taking Stock after 2 Months
Okay, as we approach June 1, we all inevitably have teams that are out in 1st and looking great, but we also have teams that aren't looking so good, maybe you have Manny Ramirez and he is suspended, maybe you have Joey Votto and his puzzling ailments.........maybe you drafted a group of starters like Lester, Liriano, Baker, Nolasco and Webb.......and now are sunk in the pitching categories even though you spent a bunch on these guys. It is time to take stock in our teams and decide a course of action.
1) What are our weaknesses? It is important to assess these and it takes more than looking at league standings. I have a team that is woeful in SB's (mainly because I needed Cameron Maybin to help), and I am also last in that category in my league, but that might not be the case in all scenarios. Maybe you have a very solid R,HR,RBI team, but they have just underproduced in the early term, so you can afford to sit tight and be patient. Maybe you are shy in SB's, but you have Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, guys who always run a lot, but just haven't gotten going yet. You might have a void in Saves, which is common and have been unable to land a good speculative play for saves up to this point. When assessing, make rough calculations to see how many points you could acquire if you grab a player or two to help these numbers based on the 1st 1/3 of the year.
2) What categories are most vulnerable in my league? This is something you can look at that standings and other rosters and figure out quite quickly. Maybe you are devoit in Saves and 4 other teams are hovering right about you, then you could make 1 move and grab 4 points quickly. Maybe runs is something to attack as your league is tightly bunched, you might give excess elsewhere to get a high runs guy to fill in, or you could go out and grab a guy like Ryan Sweeney who is available in the majority of non-AL Only leagues and is producing runs quite nicely. This is very important analysis, because you could be low in a category and have no real chance to gain many points already. I am in an NL Only league in which one team has a .213 batting average......this is 40 points behind the next team and way out of contention of scoring more points in this league. If that is the case, time to punt and go after other categories.
3) What do I have to exchange to get what I need? One caveat, if what you need is readily available on the free agent market, it is important to assess the droppability of certain players (categorically as the value to your team or other teams might exceed your needs), this is food for an entire different blog, so I will stop here with this thought, but be sure to weigh your options carefully. If you have excess of something, maybe you are in a deep league and have 3 closers, then you have a trading chip to gather what you need. Take a look at your excesses and any players that you feel are fungible and find what you need in the market.
4) When possible, make small trades over big trades. I am stealing this thought from Jon Williams who's excellent blog Advanced Fantasy Baseball tackles this idea in more detail. You can often get a lot done by making a few small deals instead of 1 big deal. Most owners are more than willing to deal smaller pieces for other smaller pieces. Remember, some owners treat their top picks like their children....it is hard to buy most people's children.
5) Don't be afraid to overpay!!! I can't stress this enough, if you are a good drafter of value, then you should be fine overpaying to get what you need. I am in a 10 team head to head league and I had 5 closers (kinda ridiculous, I know)..........I decided to trade Jon Papelbon, and was willing to take a significant discount to get a power hitter. I ended up landing exactly the guy I wanted, Carlos Quentin (unfortunately his injury creeped up again), although I was willing to pay much less to get a need.
In closing, take stock in your team now, and be ready to move when you get the chance, remember, the goal is to win (or at least finish in the money position in) your league, so don't be afraid to make brash, calculated adjustments to your roster.
1) What are our weaknesses? It is important to assess these and it takes more than looking at league standings. I have a team that is woeful in SB's (mainly because I needed Cameron Maybin to help), and I am also last in that category in my league, but that might not be the case in all scenarios. Maybe you have a very solid R,HR,RBI team, but they have just underproduced in the early term, so you can afford to sit tight and be patient. Maybe you are shy in SB's, but you have Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, guys who always run a lot, but just haven't gotten going yet. You might have a void in Saves, which is common and have been unable to land a good speculative play for saves up to this point. When assessing, make rough calculations to see how many points you could acquire if you grab a player or two to help these numbers based on the 1st 1/3 of the year.
2) What categories are most vulnerable in my league? This is something you can look at that standings and other rosters and figure out quite quickly. Maybe you are devoit in Saves and 4 other teams are hovering right about you, then you could make 1 move and grab 4 points quickly. Maybe runs is something to attack as your league is tightly bunched, you might give excess elsewhere to get a high runs guy to fill in, or you could go out and grab a guy like Ryan Sweeney who is available in the majority of non-AL Only leagues and is producing runs quite nicely. This is very important analysis, because you could be low in a category and have no real chance to gain many points already. I am in an NL Only league in which one team has a .213 batting average......this is 40 points behind the next team and way out of contention of scoring more points in this league. If that is the case, time to punt and go after other categories.
3) What do I have to exchange to get what I need? One caveat, if what you need is readily available on the free agent market, it is important to assess the droppability of certain players (categorically as the value to your team or other teams might exceed your needs), this is food for an entire different blog, so I will stop here with this thought, but be sure to weigh your options carefully. If you have excess of something, maybe you are in a deep league and have 3 closers, then you have a trading chip to gather what you need. Take a look at your excesses and any players that you feel are fungible and find what you need in the market.
4) When possible, make small trades over big trades. I am stealing this thought from Jon Williams who's excellent blog Advanced Fantasy Baseball tackles this idea in more detail. You can often get a lot done by making a few small deals instead of 1 big deal. Most owners are more than willing to deal smaller pieces for other smaller pieces. Remember, some owners treat their top picks like their children....it is hard to buy most people's children.
5) Don't be afraid to overpay!!! I can't stress this enough, if you are a good drafter of value, then you should be fine overpaying to get what you need. I am in a 10 team head to head league and I had 5 closers (kinda ridiculous, I know)..........I decided to trade Jon Papelbon, and was willing to take a significant discount to get a power hitter. I ended up landing exactly the guy I wanted, Carlos Quentin (unfortunately his injury creeped up again), although I was willing to pay much less to get a need.
In closing, take stock in your team now, and be ready to move when you get the chance, remember, the goal is to win (or at least finish in the money position in) your league, so don't be afraid to make brash, calculated adjustments to your roster.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Daily Transaction Leagues
A quick note on daily transaction/lineup change leagues.......
I know people don't always have time to check their lineup and bench a player that is sitting that night and start a bench player, but in shallow leagues, think of the effect of doing this. Lets say that you are in a 10 teamer and you have player A on your bench, he is an average bench player in a 10 teamer. This player (assume he only plays OF for simplicity), over the course of a full season, assume 500+ at bats, will get you 75/20/75/8 .275............a decent player, certainly nothing you would need to start everyday, but a decent player. Now, think about if you could find a way to insert this player in your lineup for players that are getting a normal day off, even twice a week (between your OF and Util spots)...........so 8 at bats x 25 weeks of the regular season (I shaved off one week for simplicity) = 200 AB's. This means that you are subbing in an extra 40% of his total line or roughly 30/8/30/3 .275. This is assuming you only add the sub twice a week, which is pretty easy to assume is possibly even if you know of scheduled off days and can do it ahead of time. That additional line could be worth very valuable points in a roto league. Remember to use any advantage you have to maximize your chances of winning your league.
I know people don't always have time to check their lineup and bench a player that is sitting that night and start a bench player, but in shallow leagues, think of the effect of doing this. Lets say that you are in a 10 teamer and you have player A on your bench, he is an average bench player in a 10 teamer. This player (assume he only plays OF for simplicity), over the course of a full season, assume 500+ at bats, will get you 75/20/75/8 .275............a decent player, certainly nothing you would need to start everyday, but a decent player. Now, think about if you could find a way to insert this player in your lineup for players that are getting a normal day off, even twice a week (between your OF and Util spots)...........so 8 at bats x 25 weeks of the regular season (I shaved off one week for simplicity) = 200 AB's. This means that you are subbing in an extra 40% of his total line or roughly 30/8/30/3 .275. This is assuming you only add the sub twice a week, which is pretty easy to assume is possibly even if you know of scheduled off days and can do it ahead of time. That additional line could be worth very valuable points in a roto league. Remember to use any advantage you have to maximize your chances of winning your league.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Article on FantasyBaseball365 is up...and other stuff
Hi all, my article has been posted http://fantasybaseball365.com/
Thanks again to Charlie for having me at his site.
A few other things, if you are a recreational sports bettor and just looking for some small action, you need to check out http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=403093 this is a free betting site where they give you $.10 starting bankroll that you can bet as you wish and when you bust your bankroll, they give you another $.10.
Also, I have an Orlando futures ticket at 10-1 to win the NBA title........to hedge or not to hedge, feel free to leave comments.
As we have reached the 1/4 pole in the fantasy baseball season, my next few posts will be regarding in season team management and what positions you might want to take at this point.
Thanks again to Charlie for having me at his site.
A few other things, if you are a recreational sports bettor and just looking for some small action, you need to check out http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=403093 this is a free betting site where they give you $.10 starting bankroll that you can bet as you wish and when you bust your bankroll, they give you another $.10.
Also, I have an Orlando futures ticket at 10-1 to win the NBA title........to hedge or not to hedge, feel free to leave comments.
As we have reached the 1/4 pole in the fantasy baseball season, my next few posts will be regarding in season team management and what positions you might want to take at this point.
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