This blog isn't just about fantasy sports, I want to keep all of my casino gamblers interested here. Here are is a short list of easy advantage plays.
1) Taking someone elses double down - this play works with a novice BlackJack player who may be too afraid to double down. You offer to pay the double down, making you partners on the hand..............what lots of people don't realize is that the reason you double down is that the hand match ups in which it is called for are +EV for the player, so getting more money out there is advantageous...
2) Gambling Coupons - Casino Royale is one of my favorite Las Vegas Strip Casinos because once a month they hand you a fist full of coupons including BlackJacks pay 2 to 1, or various hand pays on Video Poker machines. The EV of various coupons differ, but they are generally positive EV............Buying the American Casino Guide or a subscription to Las Vegas Advisor would give you enough coupons to satisfy a beginners coupon playing itch.
3) Free drinks - in moderation obviously, or if you are playing a game that doesn't have a varying edge based on skill.............if you can bet $5 on the pass line of a craps game and get 2 call drinks in an hour, you are beating the game.
I'll get into more ways to enjoy your gambling experience, but these are a few to wet your whistle.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Friday, June 12, 2009
Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias is the inclination to see events that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place.
I included a sentence definition for emphasis, but really what I am trying to alert the readers to is that Hindsight bias is useless, often harmful. In gambling, hindsight bias, has absolutely no place, making the best decision, with the available information is the end all be all. The reason I bring this up, is I all too often here people say, especially after picking a side in a sporting event, or picking their fantasy team "Well, we will see how it turns out" .............actually, how it turns out is just a tiny piece of the long run, what is really important is making the best choice at the time and place in which you do it. Just because you win a sports bet or your fantasy team does well, doesn't mean you made the best choices possible. In betting sports, you could've taken a line that was significantly worse than market, but still won..........when putting your fantasy team together you could've made egregious errors in drafting and had a couple of guys come out of nowhere to help you out. In a poker game you could get the money in badly several times in a row and win.............so "How it turns out" doesn't have much to do with making good decisions.
I included a sentence definition for emphasis, but really what I am trying to alert the readers to is that Hindsight bias is useless, often harmful. In gambling, hindsight bias, has absolutely no place, making the best decision, with the available information is the end all be all. The reason I bring this up, is I all too often here people say, especially after picking a side in a sporting event, or picking their fantasy team "Well, we will see how it turns out" .............actually, how it turns out is just a tiny piece of the long run, what is really important is making the best choice at the time and place in which you do it. Just because you win a sports bet or your fantasy team does well, doesn't mean you made the best choices possible. In betting sports, you could've taken a line that was significantly worse than market, but still won..........when putting your fantasy team together you could've made egregious errors in drafting and had a couple of guys come out of nowhere to help you out. In a poker game you could get the money in badly several times in a row and win.............so "How it turns out" doesn't have much to do with making good decisions.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Fantasy Baseball - Nothing Trades
Earlier this week, I offerred a Nothing Trade to another team. I consider these an important part of fantasy team management.
A Nothing Trade would be defined as a trade that doesn't necessarily improve either team, but moves players (sometimes of the same position) and similar relative value (generally both categorically and absolute) to other teams. The reason to make these deals is more in the way of creating trading partners.................this is important, because when you do need something down the line, you have an open line of communication with the other team and can more easily create a deal.
I generally try making these types of deals with new teams in my league, mainly just to try and get them dealing. I think leagues function better when there is some trading going on, some ability to inneract with the other teams. If the league is strictly based on pickups and the draft, you really don't have a league that is fluid and therefore you probably aren't getting the most out of your league.
Consider making a nothing trade with another team, just see how it goes, and maybe you'll make them very happy with a new player of similar value, and later you can get a deal done that might help you get something you need.
A Nothing Trade would be defined as a trade that doesn't necessarily improve either team, but moves players (sometimes of the same position) and similar relative value (generally both categorically and absolute) to other teams. The reason to make these deals is more in the way of creating trading partners.................this is important, because when you do need something down the line, you have an open line of communication with the other team and can more easily create a deal.
I generally try making these types of deals with new teams in my league, mainly just to try and get them dealing. I think leagues function better when there is some trading going on, some ability to inneract with the other teams. If the league is strictly based on pickups and the draft, you really don't have a league that is fluid and therefore you probably aren't getting the most out of your league.
Consider making a nothing trade with another team, just see how it goes, and maybe you'll make them very happy with a new player of similar value, and later you can get a deal done that might help you get something you need.
Friday, June 5, 2009
Dumpster Divin'
The last few weeks I have been dumpster divin' in various leagues. What is that you say? I have been trading for or picking up another man's trash. Instead of buying low, I am buying real low in hopes to find a treasure. In the past week or so, I have grabbed up the following players in 12 to 15 team leagues, in hopes of a big payoff
David Ortiz
Garrett Atkins
Scott Baker (multiple times)
Francisco Liriano
Conor Jackson (yes I know he has Valley Fever)
and shortly Ricky Nolasco
The moral of the story is, sometimes you want to grab a very cheap commodity for the chance at one large strike. It is kind of like buying out of the money options, or like buying lottery tickets, you know your probability might not be that high, but if you hit, it will pay huge dividends.
In the coming weeks, start looking at the changing of situations, ie, who are contenders and who aren't (mostly who aren't) as their lineups will change and players who are widely available now, might be a very valuable. Matt LaPorta and Travis Snider being prime examples.
David Ortiz
Garrett Atkins
Scott Baker (multiple times)
Francisco Liriano
Conor Jackson (yes I know he has Valley Fever)
and shortly Ricky Nolasco
The moral of the story is, sometimes you want to grab a very cheap commodity for the chance at one large strike. It is kind of like buying out of the money options, or like buying lottery tickets, you know your probability might not be that high, but if you hit, it will pay huge dividends.
In the coming weeks, start looking at the changing of situations, ie, who are contenders and who aren't (mostly who aren't) as their lineups will change and players who are widely available now, might be a very valuable. Matt LaPorta and Travis Snider being prime examples.
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