Jimmy "the Greek" Snyder

ESPN is airing a special about Jimmy "the Greek" Snyder, basically a "life and times" type special. I watched it the other night and noted a few inconsistencies with the gambling information they provided.

Bookmakers set betting lines to get even action on both sides

While this is usually true for most bookmaking businesses, it is not always true. Books will line shade (shading the line against a public favorite that will likely get bet more than an underdog) and take a position if they believe it is profitable. The idea that a bookmaker can't also be a gambling venture is incorrect. While lots of bookmaking operations will strive for equal action, this is not always the case.

Jimmy the Greek mentions betting his entire bankroll on a bet many times during his career

I am not challenging the validity of this statement, I merely want to note that in a non-perfect arbitrage situation, your expected growth on a bet where you wager your entire bankroll is -X (where X is your bankroll).........meaning, these bets will make an advantage gambler go broke.

Jimmy's story is both interesting and complex. I enjoyed watching the piece, it was clear that he understood how to gain an edge (in various walks of life), but he misunderstood risk management (ie making comments that lead to his demise). I think people should watch it and understand how helpful the NFL Today was in getting Professional Football to the forefront of the American Sports lexicon.

Fantasy Football update

As there is a calling for the current mobnies won in my league (we pay some funds out weekly), I will list them here.

Bigos $20
Rogocki $17
Vinny $20.50
Jonny ATM ($3)
Mickey $12
Chris & Adam $9
Delicious ($1)
JP $16
Petey $7
Bob $22.50

Hindsight Bias

I was out yesterday having a few adult beverages and watching my beloved Bears.......a few of my friends know about my "hobbies" and one of them asked me how I was doing on the props I bet as results were coming in..........it was a comedy of errors as I told him my wins and losses because after each win he would comment "I would've bet that too" and after each loss he would comment "Oh, I don't like that bet"........lets disregard the fact that some of the wins, the market closed against me or neutral.......ie, I bet at -115 and the line closed at -115 or -105 or +110.........and some of the losses I bet at -115 and they closed at -130 or -150 or -180.......my friend has a wicked case of hindsight bias.

Hindsight bias is incredibly dangerous in all walks of life, but definitely in gambling........if you have a case of hindsight bias, please either read NNT's boox or DON'T TAKE MANY RISKS.