Today was the first time in a while that I was faced with a bet, that based on my kelly staking and the edge, made me feel uneasy...........it wasn't an astronomically huge bet based other advantage players.........but for me, it seemed large.
Thanks to Serbia for coming through versus Germany and covering.........glad I didn't get scared and hedge.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Learning to Learn
I just read a post on a gambling forum that is typical of the average person walking this earth. The poster wrote a paragraph how they want to cut through all of the BS and learn how to bet sports for a living from someone who knows what they are doing and can teach them, X, Y & Z. But the poster claimed they weren't looking for a handout.
These types of posts are symbolic of the human condition, at least in the small pool that I wade through (either the Chicago Metro area, or the interwebs)..........everyone WANTS to have a great body, everyone WANTS to make more money....yada, yada, yada........the list is endless of things people want to do............but actually doing......that means you need to learn how first. Learning to Learn. People really don't want to do that, for a myriad of reasons, but mostly because applying yourself is tough and you fail a lot in the process.
I was too upset by the posters utter lack of perspective on the situation (ie, asking for handout in a competitive market that only has a small float out there to begin with)..........but if I was going to give him a hint, it would be this.
"All the things you need are sitting out there on the internet, it takes a little digging, and the ability to learn, but you can find them. Judging by your post though, you won't. Good day."
These types of posts are symbolic of the human condition, at least in the small pool that I wade through (either the Chicago Metro area, or the interwebs)..........everyone WANTS to have a great body, everyone WANTS to make more money....yada, yada, yada........the list is endless of things people want to do............but actually doing......that means you need to learn how first. Learning to Learn. People really don't want to do that, for a myriad of reasons, but mostly because applying yourself is tough and you fail a lot in the process.
I was too upset by the posters utter lack of perspective on the situation (ie, asking for handout in a competitive market that only has a small float out there to begin with)..........but if I was going to give him a hint, it would be this.
"All the things you need are sitting out there on the internet, it takes a little digging, and the ability to learn, but you can find them. Judging by your post though, you won't. Good day."
Monday, May 10, 2010
Time Value of Money
A very wise person warned me that betting futures isn't generally the best allocation of funds for someone with a small bankroll (anything under 100k).
Of course, I didn't listen and plopped down $500 on a future wager on March 19, 2010. This wager will be settled September 1, 2010....and the wager had a 19% edge. Pretty substantial for any bet.............then I wanted to barf when thinking about this...............if I had simply NOT bet the future and bet on various other opportunities that came up over the course of the 23 weeks...........even at a conservative 2% advantage and rolling that $500 over once a week.........my $500 would have accrued an expected value of $288 ($788 total), instead of the $95 that I garnered with that future bet.
I should listen to those wiser than I
Of course, I didn't listen and plopped down $500 on a future wager on March 19, 2010. This wager will be settled September 1, 2010....and the wager had a 19% edge. Pretty substantial for any bet.............then I wanted to barf when thinking about this...............if I had simply NOT bet the future and bet on various other opportunities that came up over the course of the 23 weeks...........even at a conservative 2% advantage and rolling that $500 over once a week.........my $500 would have accrued an expected value of $288 ($788 total), instead of the $95 that I garnered with that future bet.
I should listen to those wiser than I
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
F Balance/Cover, Play Optimally!
I just listened to a great podcast on DeucePlays which is on www.deucescracked.com
The show is hosted by Bart Hanson and is a spinoff of his old show on PokerRoad, called Cash Plays. This podcast is from September and features a professional poker player nicknamed Limon on 2+2. He is mainly a live player in LA and he discusses many informative issues for the advantage player (even though currently his main focus is poker). One particular item struck a chord with me and it is something it took me a long time to figure out. A lot of podcasts, books, articles tend to talk about deception as an important part of any advantage play, whether it be balancing in poker, cover plays in blackjack or sportsbetting, etc..........but Limon has a different take.......
(Paraphrased)......I don't worry about my image and I don't have a set preflop raise amount either, I just make the most optimal play everytime, assuming that the play will never get exploited.........if the play does get exploited, then I figure out what adjustments I need to make........but most people you play against won't be able to figure out what you are doing and your play won't need any adjustments.
This is an important concept, in poker, blackjack or sportsbetting.........its probably best to make the most optimal play, until it doesn't work anymore because your opponents, the pit or the bookmaker figure it out and stop you from doing so. In all of these advantage plays, there are work arounds after you are figured out, so why leave money on the table in these situations when there is a chance you may not be figured out.
The show is hosted by Bart Hanson and is a spinoff of his old show on PokerRoad, called Cash Plays. This podcast is from September and features a professional poker player nicknamed Limon on 2+2. He is mainly a live player in LA and he discusses many informative issues for the advantage player (even though currently his main focus is poker). One particular item struck a chord with me and it is something it took me a long time to figure out. A lot of podcasts, books, articles tend to talk about deception as an important part of any advantage play, whether it be balancing in poker, cover plays in blackjack or sportsbetting, etc..........but Limon has a different take.......
(Paraphrased)......I don't worry about my image and I don't have a set preflop raise amount either, I just make the most optimal play everytime, assuming that the play will never get exploited.........if the play does get exploited, then I figure out what adjustments I need to make........but most people you play against won't be able to figure out what you are doing and your play won't need any adjustments.
This is an important concept, in poker, blackjack or sportsbetting.........its probably best to make the most optimal play, until it doesn't work anymore because your opponents, the pit or the bookmaker figure it out and stop you from doing so. In all of these advantage plays, there are work arounds after you are figured out, so why leave money on the table in these situations when there is a chance you may not be figured out.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Longtime without a post.....
I have had a long time off since last posting. Rest assure, fun stuff will be on the way. My wife and I have been adjusting to our new life with our daughter Olivia........this really doesn't have much to do with gambling, but it does have to do with my lack of posting.
Currently, I am cruising right along, betting sports as a 2nd job...........and I am currently trying to decide if I want to add poker back into the mix. The game I am considering learning is Pot Limit Omaha - cash. Still not sure if I want to spend the time, or just goof off all summer while I wait for football to come back and provide infinitely more betting opportunities than I have right now.
Currently, I am cruising right along, betting sports as a 2nd job...........and I am currently trying to decide if I want to add poker back into the mix. The game I am considering learning is Pot Limit Omaha - cash. Still not sure if I want to spend the time, or just goof off all summer while I wait for football to come back and provide infinitely more betting opportunities than I have right now.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Finding Bets
Quick hit today about how to find +EV bets in sports betting............my sports betting mentor(s) claim that finding +EV bets is the easiest part of sports betting, while I don't disagree, I think some people could use a hint or two.
A particular bet that I have been focusing on lately are individual team totals in NBA. Everyone knows that there are over/under bets for totals in NBA....ex/Phoenix v New Orleans tonight, had a total of 213 for most of the day. Most books that have NBA team totals were hanging Phoenix 106 and New Orleans 107 (individual team totals). This makes sense, because New Orleans was a 1pt favorite and as you can see, the team totals reflect both the spread of 1pt and combining the team totals you get 213, which is the total for the game. These numbers seem accurate and efficient based on the market, but then...things happen............
About 15 minutes before gametime, the total decreased to 211 and the spread stayed at 1pt.......most sites decreased their team totals to 105 & 106 or 105.5 each (the spread was very close to pk)................but occassionally bookies, very focused on their game lines, forget about team totals and leave the old ones up........106 and 107.........both of these lines, particularly the 107 for New Orleans (since the game is going closer to a pk) have value. 1pt difference at this high of a total is worth approx 2% and that is for the game total...........the individual team total difference of 1pt is worth closer to 3.5%........enough to overcome -110 and even -115.
A particular bet that I have been focusing on lately are individual team totals in NBA. Everyone knows that there are over/under bets for totals in NBA....ex/Phoenix v New Orleans tonight, had a total of 213 for most of the day. Most books that have NBA team totals were hanging Phoenix 106 and New Orleans 107 (individual team totals). This makes sense, because New Orleans was a 1pt favorite and as you can see, the team totals reflect both the spread of 1pt and combining the team totals you get 213, which is the total for the game. These numbers seem accurate and efficient based on the market, but then...things happen............
About 15 minutes before gametime, the total decreased to 211 and the spread stayed at 1pt.......most sites decreased their team totals to 105 & 106 or 105.5 each (the spread was very close to pk)................but occassionally bookies, very focused on their game lines, forget about team totals and leave the old ones up........106 and 107.........both of these lines, particularly the 107 for New Orleans (since the game is going closer to a pk) have value. 1pt difference at this high of a total is worth approx 2% and that is for the game total...........the individual team total difference of 1pt is worth closer to 3.5%........enough to overcome -110 and even -115.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Clairvoyance, Ignorance and Work Ethic
Clairvoyance
I keep up with the ongoings of various internet forums that relate to gambling. At the heart of every gambling endeavor is cold, hard, numeros........other factors do exist and should be considered, but in most gambling markets if you can crunch the numbers you can find out your edge and bet it. Recently there has been a thread on an internet forum where a person is claiming clairvoyance (I think) as their method of beating the market of sportsbetting. While I don't doubt that this sort of thing is possible (its very hard to refute things as impossible, by nature)..........I don't see why/where it belongs in a forum. In my opinion, forums are there to help people understand things, ask questions, relay information..........this really does nothing, but claim clairvoyance, a talent that isn't replicable, therefore adding nothing with the exception of humor to the thread.
I don't doubt the existence of said skills, but if you have these types of skills, it shouldn't be hard to turn them into riches..........so save the chatter on internet forums and collect money.
Ignorance
I told a relative recently that I make money betting sports. I wasn't surprised that it was met with ignorance, but it was funny how the methods weren't questioned at all.........one thing you can count on, with 99.9% of the population is that they believe what they believe and haven't learned to ask appropriate questions to problems. Even if something seems unlikely, you should always question it, get more information,.......there may be fundamental concepts to the endeavor that you never thought of............everyone has a level of ignorance.............but you can fight against it by being aware and questioning things. I know for some topics myself, I really have almost no opinion because I might "feel" a certain way, but I haven't absorbed enough on the topic to understand even the most fundamental concepts related to it.
Work Ethic
I had a few drinks with another Advantage Player last weekend. I am fairly new to the game and although this person is younger than I, this person is much more senior in AP. We began discussing work ethic and how betting can be a grind. I think people visualize AP's as just raking in cash with little or no effort. This is not the case, it requires a work ethic much like many other professions and although I DO NOT gamble professionally, I realize that is the case. I remember reading, many moons ago, a poster on one forum was answering a question of another poster about going pro in poker. The veteran poster (and professional) alerted the poster that it takes the same work ethic and discipline as other professions where you could potentially make more money with less risk. Pretty simple, there is no free lunch and you have to earn what you get.
lastly, I am going to try and post more regularly, and even though my wife and I have a baby on the way (due in 8 days)..........I am going to try to stay on topic and provide gambling content.
I keep up with the ongoings of various internet forums that relate to gambling. At the heart of every gambling endeavor is cold, hard, numeros........other factors do exist and should be considered, but in most gambling markets if you can crunch the numbers you can find out your edge and bet it. Recently there has been a thread on an internet forum where a person is claiming clairvoyance (I think) as their method of beating the market of sportsbetting. While I don't doubt that this sort of thing is possible (its very hard to refute things as impossible, by nature)..........I don't see why/where it belongs in a forum. In my opinion, forums are there to help people understand things, ask questions, relay information..........this really does nothing, but claim clairvoyance, a talent that isn't replicable, therefore adding nothing with the exception of humor to the thread.
I don't doubt the existence of said skills, but if you have these types of skills, it shouldn't be hard to turn them into riches..........so save the chatter on internet forums and collect money.
Ignorance
I told a relative recently that I make money betting sports. I wasn't surprised that it was met with ignorance, but it was funny how the methods weren't questioned at all.........one thing you can count on, with 99.9% of the population is that they believe what they believe and haven't learned to ask appropriate questions to problems. Even if something seems unlikely, you should always question it, get more information,.......there may be fundamental concepts to the endeavor that you never thought of............everyone has a level of ignorance.............but you can fight against it by being aware and questioning things. I know for some topics myself, I really have almost no opinion because I might "feel" a certain way, but I haven't absorbed enough on the topic to understand even the most fundamental concepts related to it.
Work Ethic
I had a few drinks with another Advantage Player last weekend. I am fairly new to the game and although this person is younger than I, this person is much more senior in AP. We began discussing work ethic and how betting can be a grind. I think people visualize AP's as just raking in cash with little or no effort. This is not the case, it requires a work ethic much like many other professions and although I DO NOT gamble professionally, I realize that is the case. I remember reading, many moons ago, a poster on one forum was answering a question of another poster about going pro in poker. The veteran poster (and professional) alerted the poster that it takes the same work ethic and discipline as other professions where you could potentially make more money with less risk. Pretty simple, there is no free lunch and you have to earn what you get.
lastly, I am going to try and post more regularly, and even though my wife and I have a baby on the way (due in 8 days)..........I am going to try to stay on topic and provide gambling content.
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