Saturday, October 31, 2009

Oops!!

In a quest to deposit freely to the various offshore sportsbooks across this planet to pick up bonus money and soft betting lines, I decided to start buying Visa Gift Cards.............unfortunately, I failed to realize that only "International" Visa Gift Cards would serve the purpose of allowing me to do this.

A couple of things I learned today............Sportsbetting is work, and you will fail occassionally (see my example above where I bought a US Only Visa Gift Card that will not help in my quest of mucho depositos)......Finding arbs in derivative or prop markets is pretty easy............if I never truly learn to handicap anything but props, I can keep making small amounts of money in this game.....................If you decide to try and do this (make money at Sportsbetting) don't try and explain the methods to most people, they will mainly give you blank stares as they either think that you are insane and that all sports bettors are degens, or they assume that you are some sports genius...........

In closing, I thought to myself today, all you are really doing is picking up the money that other people are too distracted to see on the ground..............carry on.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Arbs and Middles or both....

As I mentioned in the previous post, I am starting to get into sports betting a bit.............not what you usually think of sports betting, my main focus are props and other mathematical type bets.........one example is an Arb (short for Arbitrage), this is a position in which you make 2 bets, and between the two bets you secure a profit...here is an example from about a month ago.....Book A had this line Albert Pujols under 2.5 Hits, Runs, RBI +110, Book B had this line Albert Pujols over 2.5 Hits, Runs, RBI +110, in this example, you could bet both of these lines, in equal increments and guarantee a profit.

Here is an example of a middle.....Book A has Team X -2.5 +105, Book B has Team Y +3.5 -105, bet in proper increments this is a perfect middle in which you can not lose, but you can possibly win both bets if Team X wins by exactly 3 (which in the NFL happens roughly 9.5% of the time and in NCAAF happens around 9.0% of the time).

This weekend, I found a few prop arbs, that also included very tiny middles with them, like this one that I found for the Sunday night game, Book A - Hines Ward under 69.5 rec yds +120 & Book B - Hines Ward over 67.5 yds rec -115, bet in proper increments, this is roughly a 1% arbitrage opportunity...............but it also contains a tiny middle............if Hines Ward has 68 or 69 yds worth of receptions in tonights game, you would hit both sides. This type of bet has a guaranteed profit with the chance for a very big gain if you hit a very slim middle.

The next time you are searching your favorite online books be on the outlook for arbs that contain tiny middles to add additional EV to your gamblings.