Some leagues allow you to have a DL spot or two (the leagues I run allow for 2 DL spots). One idea that I have come up with this fantasy baseball season is the idea of leveraging your DL spots to increase/improve your roster.
The two players I have in mind, that perform in the top 1% of all players when healthy, but inevitably end up on the DL every single year are Rich Harden and Chipper Jones. I want to make the case for drafting these guys below their " if they never got hurt and played full time" draft value, but above their "normal everyday league, we know these guys will be injured at some point" draft value.
A couple of factors come into play,
1) Can you get these guys for reasonable value, assuming their playing time and their production? The answer is inevitably YES, this is not fantasy football, where avoiding ouchy running backs is an essential strategy..............when these guys play, they are the best of the best. Most people treat them like it is fantasy football and avoid at all cost, because they assume the correlation and maybe they just get heart broken.
2) Can you find a suitable replacement at a cheap price? MAYBE, obviously you don't get the same value as a cheap replacement, but this year, I believe both players can be reasonably replaced during injury with a very cheap player that won't hurt you during their down time. With Chipper, I see Mark Reynolds, Jorge Cantu and Adrian Beltre going very late in drafts, these guys are very reasonable replacements during the inevitable injury. With Harden, I see Gil Meche, Chris Young and Andy Pettitte going in the late middle rounds, these guys are all solid pitchers to plug in when a Rich Harden goes down, and the combination of the two probably gives you a very solid pitcher at a cheap price
Both of these players will be in my plans for this years fantasy drafts.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Friday, February 27, 2009
Fantasy Sports - Drafting vs Team Management
I have been reading the book "The Baseball Economist", this is another in a long line of theorists who take statistics to examine baseball from various angles...................I like reading different theories and seeing how arguments come about, how problems are solved, etc...................an interesting theory question came about the other day at my condo that overlooks downtown Chicago.............a few other fantasy enthusiasts were sitting around talking shop, mainly baseball, but the topic shifted to basketball, a sport in which my brother and I have teamed up to dominate the regular season portion of a league. The playoffs are still to come and actually contain far less of the prize money............anywho........our whole idea coming in, was to focus less on basketball and more on math.............granted the math focus varied significantly............for me, it was the draft, putting together a giant matrix of a spreadsheet which analyzed the individual values of sed players and set up an easy method of drafting for us..................my brother's "math" was finding situational weekly angles in which to exploit other teams, his was a form of arbitrage as well...............taking advantage of less attentive owners and owners that just don't understand (I would be in this group as well) the subtleties of running a team once the draft (the initial arbitrage session) has concluded. The whole situation was a thing of beauty and I learned a ton about running a team................but it brought about one important question, which I had asked earlier in the season...............WHAT PERCENTAGE WOULD YOU ASSIGN TO DRAFTING AND WHAT PERCENTAGE WOULD YOU ASSIGN TO MANAGING? There is probably a way to quantify this, which would take gobs of time and might even be worth doing, but in the end, both are important to winning a title.............my brother and I could not have won our title (regular season) if it were not for the expertise of each other.............but my question was one of ideas and less of getting an actual answer..........................this leads me to my brother's bold statement at our recent get together,.............."I want to do a league where everyone drafts and I pick up players at the end to see if I can manage them to some form of success", little brother, I can answer now, you might be able to do this a tiny fraction of the time, but those times would be more luck than anything...................I guess I look at the problem from a different standpoint.................my ideas are..............
Every team, assuming average expertise by every single manager, should draft an around equal team and manage an around equal team and each team would finish .500..............now, lets move out a little further (and this exercise assumes even luck, because we know good and bad fortune change the landscape of any fantasy season)..............assuming that we have 8 or 10 teams of average expertise ............now we add some expertise to a two teams...............one of these teams has expertise in player pickups and trading players, as well as lineup substitutions...........the other team has expertise in the draft....................which one would win more..............or in other words..........in which situations are there more to gain, in the draft, or in daily day to day management. Much of my argument for the draft being more important probably stems from the fact that I work a lot of data analysis for drafts, do many mock drafts to track the temperature of the market and try to distinguish in those mocks, where the players shelfs are and where I can find excellent opportunities. I think the draft takes less time to analyze and take advantage of and for more gain. One of my principle beliefs in team management and why I thought it was less valuable than drafting is that most pick up situations are quite obvious and don't take much expertise..........oh, Joe Montana got hurt, pickup Steve Young,.............injuries create obvious value situations and are generally first come first serve...................another reason you make pickups is due to injuries.........oh, Randy Johnson is hurt, I'll pick up Micah Owings the rookie hot shot who is taking his place (these are just examples for effect).............those situations are mechanical, take no analysis whatsoever and are done by the first person to get there, or by the team who happens to have the devastating injury.......................but I have found out that my thinking on team management was incorrect, there are many situations in which owners can take full advantage of the rest of the league, with their abilities....................for those ideas, I'll need a ghost writer, as I have only seen the surface scratched for those (as I can't execute most of them anyway).
So who wins the argument..................well, probably nobody, but it is a fun one to have, as I think it spawns new ideas on both ends of the spectrum.
Every team, assuming average expertise by every single manager, should draft an around equal team and manage an around equal team and each team would finish .500..............now, lets move out a little further (and this exercise assumes even luck, because we know good and bad fortune change the landscape of any fantasy season)..............assuming that we have 8 or 10 teams of average expertise ............now we add some expertise to a two teams...............one of these teams has expertise in player pickups and trading players, as well as lineup substitutions...........the other team has expertise in the draft....................which one would win more..............or in other words..........in which situations are there more to gain, in the draft, or in daily day to day management. Much of my argument for the draft being more important probably stems from the fact that I work a lot of data analysis for drafts, do many mock drafts to track the temperature of the market and try to distinguish in those mocks, where the players shelfs are and where I can find excellent opportunities. I think the draft takes less time to analyze and take advantage of and for more gain. One of my principle beliefs in team management and why I thought it was less valuable than drafting is that most pick up situations are quite obvious and don't take much expertise..........oh, Joe Montana got hurt, pickup Steve Young,.............injuries create obvious value situations and are generally first come first serve...................another reason you make pickups is due to injuries.........oh, Randy Johnson is hurt, I'll pick up Micah Owings the rookie hot shot who is taking his place (these are just examples for effect).............those situations are mechanical, take no analysis whatsoever and are done by the first person to get there, or by the team who happens to have the devastating injury.......................but I have found out that my thinking on team management was incorrect, there are many situations in which owners can take full advantage of the rest of the league, with their abilities....................for those ideas, I'll need a ghost writer, as I have only seen the surface scratched for those (as I can't execute most of them anyway).
So who wins the argument..................well, probably nobody, but it is a fun one to have, as I think it spawns new ideas on both ends of the spectrum.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Fantasy Sports - High Risk High Reward
A concept that I have been thinking about lately is high risk, high reward bets in fantasy sports.................I am a big fan of modelling and then taking value in each round of a draft.............unfortunately, there is a point in the draft where this becomes the incorrect strategy, when all of the assets become basically the same but with differing levels of variance........think about an example like this...............say, before last years draft, you had the opportunity to take Nate McLouth or Gary Matthews Jr.............before the season, models like PECOTA would have these two as both roughly very low end OF's for any fantasy draft that give you similar type numbers................only 1 difference, Gary Matthews Jr (assume, as you should that for probabilities, there are thousands and thousands of seasons running at the very same time to create these models) projection contains very little variance, his numbers (because of sample sizes already observed of his ability and his playing situation which is stable and likely unchanging) are relatively flat across all of the possibly seasons..............on the other hand, Nate McLouth's projections contain lots of situations in which he losses the CF job to Nyjer Morgan and is either a part time player or a full season minor leaguer and it also contains some situations in which he wins the job and has a nice shot at being a 20/20 candidate.
In an example like this, you want Nate McLouth every single time, because in the situations in which he succeeds, you have much larger value than most people in this round, in the situations in which he fails, you can easily pick up a replacement player whose value is not much less than the average player drafted in this round.
The obvious follow up question is,................when should I start the process of taking these types of gambles in a fantasy league....................in my estimation, the questions you should ask yourself are as follows...............
1) How good is the league I am in? Is this a very tough or very easy league? If the competition in your league is weak (generally), ie, guys show up to the draft with a magazine and pick from it, then you may not need to do this until the final couple of rounds.........if the league is much tougher, you will have to likely do this earlier as one big hit could help you win the league.
2) When does the talent flatten out? At the point in which the relative value of remaining players gets flat, is the time in which you should think about picking these types of players, as it makes for lower risk in choosing High Risk, High Reward type players
3) Do you have positional requirements/stat requirements remaining? If you have a major need in either a position in which you are sorely lacking or a statistic, you may try this earlier..........in other words, if you have a huge need for HR's, you might reach on a guy like Jack Cust, who could hit 40 HR or could end up in the minors by year end.
In an example like this, you want Nate McLouth every single time, because in the situations in which he succeeds, you have much larger value than most people in this round, in the situations in which he fails, you can easily pick up a replacement player whose value is not much less than the average player drafted in this round.
The obvious follow up question is,................when should I start the process of taking these types of gambles in a fantasy league....................in my estimation, the questions you should ask yourself are as follows...............
1) How good is the league I am in? Is this a very tough or very easy league? If the competition in your league is weak (generally), ie, guys show up to the draft with a magazine and pick from it, then you may not need to do this until the final couple of rounds.........if the league is much tougher, you will have to likely do this earlier as one big hit could help you win the league.
2) When does the talent flatten out? At the point in which the relative value of remaining players gets flat, is the time in which you should think about picking these types of players, as it makes for lower risk in choosing High Risk, High Reward type players
3) Do you have positional requirements/stat requirements remaining? If you have a major need in either a position in which you are sorely lacking or a statistic, you may try this earlier..........in other words, if you have a huge need for HR's, you might reach on a guy like Jack Cust, who could hit 40 HR or could end up in the minors by year end.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Fantasy Sports - Preseason Draft Rankings (Positions)
For those of you that participate in Yahoo leagues, many players have multiple position eligibility. Because baseball is a sport in which positional issues are paramount and most players have only one position, you need to consider the effects of players with multiple position eligibility and how to value them.
1) When putting together projections, value the player at the weakest position that they play. An example is Adam Dunn who has 1b/of eligibility, but his projections show that he is more valuable at 1b (he rates 5th at 1b and 7th in the of).......these same things occur for most of the 1b/3b eligible players as they usually end up being a few spots more valuable at 3b
2) Consider how valuable a player playing multiple positions is for low traffic days. It is pretty likely that the examples above don't add much extra valuable on Thursdays (for example), but some positional eligibility does.....mainly guys that have C eligibility (Brandon Inge) or SS/2B eligibility (Alexei Ramirez & Mike Aviles). Guys that are eligible in the middle or at C provide extra value as they can get you key at bats on days when regulars are off, or when there aren't a lot of games going on. These players are valuable in Head to Head leagues and Roto leagues with more counting stats than metrics.
In closing, considering a players extra eligibility can add some value, but don't over do it, just because a guy plays two positions generally doesn't make him much better than his projection shows. Some teams overvalue these guys, don't be them, but understand where these players do help.
1) When putting together projections, value the player at the weakest position that they play. An example is Adam Dunn who has 1b/of eligibility, but his projections show that he is more valuable at 1b (he rates 5th at 1b and 7th in the of).......these same things occur for most of the 1b/3b eligible players as they usually end up being a few spots more valuable at 3b
2) Consider how valuable a player playing multiple positions is for low traffic days. It is pretty likely that the examples above don't add much extra valuable on Thursdays (for example), but some positional eligibility does.....mainly guys that have C eligibility (Brandon Inge) or SS/2B eligibility (Alexei Ramirez & Mike Aviles). Guys that are eligible in the middle or at C provide extra value as they can get you key at bats on days when regulars are off, or when there aren't a lot of games going on. These players are valuable in Head to Head leagues and Roto leagues with more counting stats than metrics.
In closing, considering a players extra eligibility can add some value, but don't over do it, just because a guy plays two positions generally doesn't make him much better than his projection shows. Some teams overvalue these guys, don't be them, but understand where these players do help.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Pokerstars
Continues to show why they are the best in the biz by offerring another reload bonus, the 2nd in 45 days.............this is for their 25 billionth hand. I was wanting to take advantage of a few other bonuses, but will be forced to log lots of hands on Stars to pick up the free monies
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Fantasy Beisbols
Yahoo just opened up their fantasy leagues for 2009, which means lots of analysis and mock drafting and talking with others who also play fantasy baseball. Of the fantasy sports, baseball is by far the best for the real fantasy geeks.............football is more accessible to the general public, but baseball can not be beat for the true geeks.
I will try to post various theories/ideas that i come up with along the way, along with older time tested thoughts, all the way up through opening day.
I will try to post various theories/ideas that i come up with along the way, along with older time tested thoughts, all the way up through opening day.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Perspective on Luck
This chat log is from a $1/$2 Seven Card Stud hand that I played on Pokerstars, these are the types of things that allow successful gamblers to thrive.
Dealer: Game #24229672634: peeig wins pot ($16.05) with two pair, Jacks and Tens
DESKIN: nr had till then
peeig: you caught up on 6th?
DESKIN: yep
peeig: i got lucky then
DESKIN: poker have to love it
In this particular hand, I raised on 3rd with the best hand, bet all the way and made a 2nd pair on the river. My opponent called all along with a smaller pair, trying to improve, actually did improve on 6th and begrudged their bad luck on me beating them on the end by saying "nr" nice river.
After any gambling endeavor, win or lose, especially those with a close end result, you need to decide if you actually had the edge, or if you got lucky to win in the first place. It isn't always bad luck when you lose, sometimes it is bad play and you weren't unlucky at all.
Ex/This is my first year playing in a fantasy hockey league, I admittedly know nothing about hockey, but I do know about fantasy leagues............unfortunately things haven't worked out well and I am in the middle of the pack and will likely stay there through the end of the year. I could blame it on my top goalie getting hurt for more than half of the season.....but realistically, it was because, I didn't prepare properly for the draft, I left guys on the board in spots when I should've taken them (thinking they would last another round) and I gave up too early on a couple of players and cut them before they turned it around. In other words, my efforts were definitely -EV and I was NOT unlucky.
If you want a proper treatment of LUCK, please read Nassim Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness this book gives an excellent treatment of how luck is perceived and how luck actually effects your life.
Dealer: Game #24229672634: peeig wins pot ($16.05) with two pair, Jacks and Tens
DESKIN: nr had till then
peeig: you caught up on 6th?
DESKIN: yep
peeig: i got lucky then
DESKIN: poker have to love it
In this particular hand, I raised on 3rd with the best hand, bet all the way and made a 2nd pair on the river. My opponent called all along with a smaller pair, trying to improve, actually did improve on 6th and begrudged their bad luck on me beating them on the end by saying "nr" nice river.
After any gambling endeavor, win or lose, especially those with a close end result, you need to decide if you actually had the edge, or if you got lucky to win in the first place. It isn't always bad luck when you lose, sometimes it is bad play and you weren't unlucky at all.
Ex/This is my first year playing in a fantasy hockey league, I admittedly know nothing about hockey, but I do know about fantasy leagues............unfortunately things haven't worked out well and I am in the middle of the pack and will likely stay there through the end of the year. I could blame it on my top goalie getting hurt for more than half of the season.....but realistically, it was because, I didn't prepare properly for the draft, I left guys on the board in spots when I should've taken them (thinking they would last another round) and I gave up too early on a couple of players and cut them before they turned it around. In other words, my efforts were definitely -EV and I was NOT unlucky.
If you want a proper treatment of LUCK, please read Nassim Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness this book gives an excellent treatment of how luck is perceived and how luck actually effects your life.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Fantasy Sports - Misunderstood Concepts #3
League Rules
Again, this is a separation of sharp and not sharp..............players values slide up and down based on the rules/roster requirements of a league..........also the format, Roto vs Weekly...........obviously some guys, like ARod, don't really move in value, they are great no matter what and should be picked #1 in most leagues (funny, because the guy I am going to pick on had the #1 pick in both of these leagues and made the no brainer choice of ARod)...........I have a friend that plays many fantasy leagues...........he usually doesn't do very well in the leagues in which I play in (along with a few other sharp players)........but claims to do well in his other leagues (he fibs, so I can only say he claims)...............but the reason he doesn't do well, is that he reads ESPN.com Insider and gets comfortable with a group of players..........the even funnier part of his futility and lack of usage of different rules and roster requirements to make decisions, is that he is a fucking math teacher.........but one of his limitations is that he was a good baseball player and do more looking than thinking when it comes to these things.............anywho, we drafted 2 leagues the last few weeks, a 10 team lineup league in which we used the following 6 categories W, SV, HLD, K, ERA, WHIP (and starting positions SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P)..............this league also contained a 40 IP weekly min, which means, assuming you have 4 relievers that average 3.5 innings a piece, you still need 26 IP from your starters, meaning at least 4 good starts, 5 decent starts and possibly 6 starts that include a couple of poor starts............my friend chose an excellent pitching staff, that was loaded with top starters, who's strikeout rates weren't all great (save Johan), but pitched a lot of innings and had decent ERA and WHIP for starters...........a really good staff for this league..................then, we chose an 8 team roto league, this league had the following 5 categories W SV KIP ERA WHIP, you notice, we change to KIP instead of K, and this roster can hold anywhere from 6 to 4 starters and 2 to 4 relievers..............only 900 innings total for the year (lower than the 40 IP/week)............you would think with these significant changes that a better strategy would be something closer to what I mentioned above..............but this guy took almost exactly the same staff.....(NO REGARD FOR LEAGUE RULES).
Again, this is a separation of sharp and not sharp..............players values slide up and down based on the rules/roster requirements of a league..........also the format, Roto vs Weekly...........obviously some guys, like ARod, don't really move in value, they are great no matter what and should be picked #1 in most leagues (funny, because the guy I am going to pick on had the #1 pick in both of these leagues and made the no brainer choice of ARod)...........I have a friend that plays many fantasy leagues...........he usually doesn't do very well in the leagues in which I play in (along with a few other sharp players)........but claims to do well in his other leagues (he fibs, so I can only say he claims)...............but the reason he doesn't do well, is that he reads ESPN.com Insider and gets comfortable with a group of players..........the even funnier part of his futility and lack of usage of different rules and roster requirements to make decisions, is that he is a fucking math teacher.........but one of his limitations is that he was a good baseball player and do more looking than thinking when it comes to these things.............anywho, we drafted 2 leagues the last few weeks, a 10 team lineup league in which we used the following 6 categories W, SV, HLD, K, ERA, WHIP (and starting positions SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P)..............this league also contained a 40 IP weekly min, which means, assuming you have 4 relievers that average 3.5 innings a piece, you still need 26 IP from your starters, meaning at least 4 good starts, 5 decent starts and possibly 6 starts that include a couple of poor starts............my friend chose an excellent pitching staff, that was loaded with top starters, who's strikeout rates weren't all great (save Johan), but pitched a lot of innings and had decent ERA and WHIP for starters...........a really good staff for this league..................then, we chose an 8 team roto league, this league had the following 5 categories W SV KIP ERA WHIP, you notice, we change to KIP instead of K, and this roster can hold anywhere from 6 to 4 starters and 2 to 4 relievers..............only 900 innings total for the year (lower than the 40 IP/week)............you would think with these significant changes that a better strategy would be something closer to what I mentioned above..............but this guy took almost exactly the same staff.....(NO REGARD FOR LEAGUE RULES).
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