Taking Stock after 2 Months

Okay, as we approach June 1, we all inevitably have teams that are out in 1st and looking great, but we also have teams that aren't looking so good, maybe you have Manny Ramirez and he is suspended, maybe you have Joey Votto and his puzzling ailments.........maybe you drafted a group of starters like Lester, Liriano, Baker, Nolasco and Webb.......and now are sunk in the pitching categories even though you spent a bunch on these guys. It is time to take stock in our teams and decide a course of action.

1) What are our weaknesses? It is important to assess these and it takes more than looking at league standings. I have a team that is woeful in SB's (mainly because I needed Cameron Maybin to help), and I am also last in that category in my league, but that might not be the case in all scenarios. Maybe you have a very solid R,HR,RBI team, but they have just underproduced in the early term, so you can afford to sit tight and be patient. Maybe you are shy in SB's, but you have Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, guys who always run a lot, but just haven't gotten going yet. You might have a void in Saves, which is common and have been unable to land a good speculative play for saves up to this point. When assessing, make rough calculations to see how many points you could acquire if you grab a player or two to help these numbers based on the 1st 1/3 of the year.

2) What categories are most vulnerable in my league? This is something you can look at that standings and other rosters and figure out quite quickly. Maybe you are devoit in Saves and 4 other teams are hovering right about you, then you could make 1 move and grab 4 points quickly. Maybe runs is something to attack as your league is tightly bunched, you might give excess elsewhere to get a high runs guy to fill in, or you could go out and grab a guy like Ryan Sweeney who is available in the majority of non-AL Only leagues and is producing runs quite nicely. This is very important analysis, because you could be low in a category and have no real chance to gain many points already. I am in an NL Only league in which one team has a .213 batting average......this is 40 points behind the next team and way out of contention of scoring more points in this league. If that is the case, time to punt and go after other categories.

3) What do I have to exchange to get what I need? One caveat, if what you need is readily available on the free agent market, it is important to assess the droppability of certain players (categorically as the value to your team or other teams might exceed your needs), this is food for an entire different blog, so I will stop here with this thought, but be sure to weigh your options carefully. If you have excess of something, maybe you are in a deep league and have 3 closers, then you have a trading chip to gather what you need. Take a look at your excesses and any players that you feel are fungible and find what you need in the market.

4) When possible, make small trades over big trades. I am stealing this thought from Jon Williams who's excellent blog Advanced Fantasy Baseball tackles this idea in more detail. You can often get a lot done by making a few small deals instead of 1 big deal. Most owners are more than willing to deal smaller pieces for other smaller pieces. Remember, some owners treat their top picks like their children....it is hard to buy most people's children.

5) Don't be afraid to overpay!!! I can't stress this enough, if you are a good drafter of value, then you should be fine overpaying to get what you need. I am in a 10 team head to head league and I had 5 closers (kinda ridiculous, I know)..........I decided to trade Jon Papelbon, and was willing to take a significant discount to get a power hitter. I ended up landing exactly the guy I wanted, Carlos Quentin (unfortunately his injury creeped up again), although I was willing to pay much less to get a need.

In closing, take stock in your team now, and be ready to move when you get the chance, remember, the goal is to win (or at least finish in the money position in) your league, so don't be afraid to make brash, calculated adjustments to your roster.

Daily Transaction Leagues

A quick note on daily transaction/lineup change leagues.......

I know people don't always have time to check their lineup and bench a player that is sitting that night and start a bench player, but in shallow leagues, think of the effect of doing this. Lets say that you are in a 10 teamer and you have player A on your bench, he is an average bench player in a 10 teamer. This player (assume he only plays OF for simplicity), over the course of a full season, assume 500+ at bats, will get you 75/20/75/8 .275............a decent player, certainly nothing you would need to start everyday, but a decent player. Now, think about if you could find a way to insert this player in your lineup for players that are getting a normal day off, even twice a week (between your OF and Util spots)...........so 8 at bats x 25 weeks of the regular season (I shaved off one week for simplicity) = 200 AB's. This means that you are subbing in an extra 40% of his total line or roughly 30/8/30/3 .275. This is assuming you only add the sub twice a week, which is pretty easy to assume is possibly even if you know of scheduled off days and can do it ahead of time. That additional line could be worth very valuable points in a roto league. Remember to use any advantage you have to maximize your chances of winning your league.

Article on FantasyBaseball365 is up...and other stuff

Hi all, my article has been posted http://fantasybaseball365.com/

Thanks again to Charlie for having me at his site.

A few other things, if you are a recreational sports bettor and just looking for some small action, you need to check out http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=403093 this is a free betting site where they give you $.10 starting bankroll that you can bet as you wish and when you bust your bankroll, they give you another $.10.

Also, I have an Orlando futures ticket at 10-1 to win the NBA title........to hedge or not to hedge, feel free to leave comments.

As we have reached the 1/4 pole in the fantasy baseball season, my next few posts will be regarding in season team management and what positions you might want to take at this point.

Beyond Counting

fyi, James Grojean's out of print cult classic is being re-released to the public via his website http://www.beyondcounting.com/

This updated version is going for $250 a copy (the original sometimes sells on Ebay in excess of 1k)...........this is the creme de la creme of advantage player books. I haven't read it, nor have I logged enough time counting cards for it to ultimately be beneficial to my own activities, but I heard that it elludes to many little known advantage techniques as well as putting the reader in the frame of mind to figure out how to attack games from an advantage players point of view.

Take a look at the website even if you have no interest in the book as he has a great article that breaks down the use of gambling coupons

Don't Watch the Screen

Well, you can watch it, but don't worry about it................yesterday I watched one of my teams start the day 1/17 and saw them end the day without a HR and with only 2 RBI. Just remember that these types of days are a drop in the bucket and don't matter much in the grand scheme of a fantasy baseball season. Unlike football, one day won't really kill ya.

DISCLAIMER: If you are in a Head to Head league, please ignore this post and go find a bucket to throw up in, Immediately!!!!

FantasyBaseball365

Quick hit, I will be writing an article for Charlie Saponara at FantasyBaseball365, it will be published on Tuesday May 26th, so watch out for that.

Also, I am on twitter, follow me if you dare http://twitter.com/MrDelicious13

Last but not least, for a little comic relief and Vegas info, go visit my pal Matt at www.cheapovegas.com the best, unbiased info on Vegas Hotel Casinos on the web

NFBC Satellite Draft

This year, I decided to test the waters in the NFBC, I wasn't quite ready to jump into a $1,300 main event league team, or even a $325 online team............so I settled for the $125 satellite. My intentions are to learn the system, which has NO TRADES, Free Agent Bidding, and Weekly Lineups.............all things I am not particularly familiar with. The winner of the 15 team satellite gets an entry into the 2010 Main Event, which, if I won, is no problem, since one of the drafting cities, is the Second City and that's where I reside.

Onto the draft, with 15 teams, no trades and 30 man rosters, it is important to draft EVERYTHING you are going to need to compete. The free agent pool isn't likely to have a ton of value in it, although there will be some gems out there. My goal was to be more focused on SP than usual and grab a couple of top arms, along with a few good but underrated arms. As for bats, I wanted to get SB's early and then grab undervalued bats later to fill in the roster.


1
Jose Reyes
SS
2
Prince Fielder
1B
3
Tim Lincecum
SP
4
Chipper Jones
3B
5
Dan Uggla
2B
6
Adam Dunn
LF
7
Chad Billingsley
SP
8
Brian Fuentes
CL
9
Milton Bradley
RF
10
Justin Upton
RF
11
Mark Reynolds
3B
12
Justin Verlander
SP
13
Joel Hanrahan
CL
14
Felipe Lopez
2B
15
Aaron Harang
SP
16
Mike Cameron
CF
17
J.J. Putz
MR
18
Chris Snyder
C
19
Jeff Francoeur
RF
20
Kelvim Escobar
MR
21
Nick Johnson
1B
22
Matt LaPorta
RF
23
Miguel Olivo
C
24
Brian Giles
RF
25
Clay Buchholz
SP
26
Hong-Chih Kuo
MR
27
Chris Duncan
LF
28
Dallas Braden
SP
29
Erick Aybar
SS
30
Jeff Niemann
SP


I loved getting Lincecum in the 3rd and Billingsley in the 7th....also delighted to grab Verlander and Harang in the 12th and 15th respectively, for a league like this, it is insane to be able to grab grab 2 guys with 200K and 15 win potential. If I made one major mistake it was not getting at least one top 15 catcher. In a league like this with 2 starting catchers and really no free agent pool at the position, it is important to grab at least one top 15 player at that position.

Nick Johnson in the 21st and Chris Duncan in the 27th have been huge for me especially with the slow starts of Milton Bradley and Justin Upton, I had the depth to absorb it. At the time of the draft I felt both Fuentes and Hanrahan were undervalued (it hasn't looked that way now that they have started playing).

I am excited to see how this team turns out and if I like the NFBC style..........

Win by a little.....

This topic crosses widely across all forms of gambling, but I will quickly address for fantasy sports. When making trades/deals, you are obviously trying to get the best of the deal, but you shouldn't be trying to rob your opponents, as I like to say, you should try to "Win by a little" when you make these transactions.......here is why

1) Your opponent won't feel cheated/swindelled/robbed/hood-winked or suckered
2) Other teams/people will see that you make "fair" trades/transactions and would like to be involved in deals with you
3) Even though you have a small edge in the deal, your partners will sometimes "WIN" the trades, reinforcing the fact that they should be willing to deal with you

The idea is to pile up tiny edges with these deals that add up to a substantial WIN. While it will be negligible to the naked eye on a deal by deal basis, the sum of your deals will give you a nice edge.

Here is an example of what I am talking about. Say player A is struggling to start the year, this player is a top player and his rating (on your pointed based private rating scale) is 100............instead of offerring a player that has a rating of (roughly 1/5th of the value of the other player) 20, but has had a good start, you might want to offer a player who has a rating of (75% to 80% of the player) 75 or 80, but has had a good start. You make a small victory that seems more fair.

This is a good way to handle all gambling dealings, you want to be welcomed to gamble with your edge and not have to worry about being shunned for gauging those edges.

Streaming Hitters????

Quick hit: Lots of people stream pitchers in daily moves leagues, or pick up 2 start sp's in weekly leagues. In this post, I want to advocate streaming hitters early in a shallow to medium league. In leagues with bench spots and a deep free agent pool, it is often advantages in the early season to bench your top players on their off days and add in decent replacement players. Ex/You have Ryan Howard as your 1B in a 10 teamer, but he has Monday off, so on Sunday night, you scoop up Adam LaRoche (who is playing on Monday) and drop the bottom player on your roster (someone who is likely easily replaceable through the free agent market), then bench Howard (on his off day) and throw LaRoche into your lineup to get 4 valuable AB's........

This strategy compounds itself very quickly, if you can add even 12 extra at bats a week, you can add a significant amount of numbers early in the season.

Every little edge helps....

1 month in.....trade values

BUY LOW, SELL HIGH............this is a phrase commonly used in conjunction with every commodity and is no different in fantasy sports. I had an email discussion with a friend who I have played fantasy sports with for many years. The basis of the discussion is how some players values have fluctuated significantly 1 month into the season and other players values haven't moved much even though you would think their performance would lead you to believe otherwise.

I'll take one step back, in this entry, when I discuss trades I am only discussing a players absolute value. This will make this entry more focused, because a players categorical value to your team may exceed his absolute value and thus change the context of the discussion (also, I want to write extensively about this in later entries).

The main player we discussed in this exchange was Jimmy Rollins. My friend felt that even though he has gotten off to an awful start, (hitting around .200 with an obp below .300 and only 1 HR and 1 SB in the first month) his trade value hadn't decreased at all in the leagues he is in. He proclaimed to me "A person would be foolish to pay full price for Rollins".

While I agree with him about paying full price (I hate to do that in any trade I make)............I want to dig into some ideas here.

PERCEIVED VALUE

A players perceived value can change based on various things, from a hot/cold start, comments by a manager, an adjustment to his place in the batting order, a piece of news about his health, valid or not, (remember the Pujols news last year) a change in his role/usage, an adjustment in skill set (various items, too many to name), etc. All of these items combine to create a perceived value for owners in a particular league.

Of these items, a few of them can change a players actual value.

Adjustment in batting order position - Could increase/decrease RBI/R opportunities, could also lead to more or less SB opportunities, or in the extreme case of a player changing from lead off to 8th in the NL, could lead to a lot more walks and less power (Cameron Maybin)

News about a players health - this one is difficult to judge because it tends to be very noisy and often unreliable.........plus, some players play just fine with pain, Carlos Zambrano has pitched through a painful shoulder for 3 years now, Albert Pujols has put up gigantic numbers with a bum elbow for his entire career

Adjustment in role/usage - This is probably the most reliable of the adjustments, but also the most widely available information as well. If Manny Corpas is no longer the closer, then his value takes a huge decrease

Adjustment in skill set - very difficult to judge and can only be relied upon through 1 month of data in extreme cases

In the case of our Jimmy Rollins discussion, yes he is in a terrible slump, his BABIP is almost 70 points lower than his career average (currently at .233 for the 2009 campaign and his career is .299) and while his LD% is lower than his career (with his GB% up) this could just be a short term anomaly.............his K% is right on with his career numbers......and his BB% is low, but again it is still early. The lack of running might be a direct result of his lack of actually being on base. So I don't necessarily fault owners who aren't ready to give up on a top 3 SS with 1 month of poor results.

I do not think Rollins is hurt, that his skill set has changed, or that Charlie Manuel plans to use him in any capacity different than normal (although on Saturday vs Oliver Perez, he hit Rollins 5th)

Back to the discussion............while we hope that perceived value increases the value of our lower round picks and decreases the value of other teams top picks, it doesn't always do that...........we are searching for those fleeting opportunities.............and they do sometimes arise. In my experience you need to find guys that people have been predicting to break out and who have for the 1st month...........

Potential Sell High's Curtis Granderson, Zack Greinke, Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Hill, Adam Jones, Adam Lind, Andre Either, Yovanni Gallardo, Johnny Cueto, Josh Johnson..............these players could all represent sell high opportunites.

On the flip side, to buy low, you need to find those guys that people have been predicting breakdown for and who look like they are breaking down or who's skills are regressing in the 1st month.............

Potential Buy Low's CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Holliday, Alexei Ramirez, David Ortiz, Geovanny Soto, Derrek Lee, Chris Young, Mike Aviles........

These are a collection of injury risks, players with skill regression risks, or career year risks......

All in all, the correct way to value trades at this point is to lop off 1/6 of the projection from all of the players involved and go with it. Unless you see an actual adjustment in value for a player that you believe to be true, this is the most prudent way to attack trading at the 1 month pole.

So to answer the question, most owners who are being cautious with Rollins are probably right to do so and shouldn't just give him up for Nelson Cruz and Felipe Lopez (which is how I acquired him a week ago).