I played a poker tournament with some friends a few months ago, in which I played a very interesting hand. This hand has been interesting enough that it has been brought up in bar talk at least 3 times by people other than me, so I want to address the hand and some of the factors that I take into account when playing poker. For those of you that play poker and are a winning player, you won't really learn anything new, but for those of you that occassionally play poker, you might learn a thing or two.
I'll set the situation, it is the bubble of a tournament, in which the payouts are 3rd - 2 buyins, 2nd - 4 buyins, 1st - 7 buyins.
Factor #1 - The payout is top heavy, so we are playing more for 1st than in a normal sit n go where bubble play would be slightly different.
The other 3 players are known, 1 of them is solid, he is to my immediate left and is involved with me in this hand, the other two players are aggressive, one of them is extremely aggressive and plays these spots really well.................the other is aggressive, but doesn't play the bubble that well and is exploitable in some spots, but aggressive enough that I have to ramp up my aggression.
Factor #2 - This final 4 will be more aggressive than my usual home games, so I need to steal the blinds and antes whenever I can
There are T65,000 in play, at this point the blinds are 600/1200 ante 300, so the starting pot is T3000, roughly 4.5% of the chips in play, in other words, every pot you can win is very very valuable. Also, the stack sizes range from about 20k to 9k (smallest stack) so nobody is forced all in at this point, everyone can still fold hands (or feel like they can fold hands). Plus, with this being the bubble, people are playing tighter than normal.
Factor #3 - Bubble is always a spot where people play tighter (especially with their calling range), unless you are playing a very tough game, which this was not.
My table image with this group (my home game group) is one of being very tight and very solid...........also, the player to my left is pretty solid, respects my game and is willing to lay down hands to me and is unlikely to reraise me without an excellent hand.
Factor #4 - Take into account what other players think of you, remember in a game like No Limit Holdem, especially preflop, the only thing that people have to go on to define your hand is your image and your bet size.............this is an important element that is overlooked by most recreational players
Last but certainly not least, the math, with T3,000 in the pot to start, I raise to T2700 (T600 of which is in the sb) so my investment is T2100 to win T3000. So, lets assume that I have 2 napkins, that if the bb calls my raise, I can never win..............for this to be a break even play for me, I need him to fold 70% of the time..............this means that his calling range would need to be roughly 30% of the hands he is dealt preflop, which are roughly (using Pokerstove) all pairs, any suited Ace or King, and hands as bad as Q7s and J8s, or a hand like J9o.............knowing the player in question and his familiarity with me, this just isn't the case, he is probably calling with closer to the top 20 or 25% of hands..................so the play is profitable already, not even knowing my holecards...............but now, lets come back to reality and plug in my hole cards which were 9c2c (yeah, obviously an excellent holding) and see how well it does against the top 25% of hands (all in equity using pokerstove)..................in this spot, I have 32% equity vs this range of hands..............so add more +chip EV...............last but not least, some of the time when the flop comes down and my opponent would've won had it gotten to the river, I would bet the flop and win with a bluff.................as I am first to act after the flop and will continuation bet all but the scariest boards that come off...............so despite the fact that raising 92 sooted from the sb looks like a donkey play, when figuring in all of these factors, and in this particular game it is ++++EV.
Factor #5 - Do the math, away from the table, so you can guesstimate at the table (this calculation above is too complex for me to do at the table, but I have run simulations away from the table using pokerstove (free download) and excel to crunch some rough numbers. You don't have to be good at math to win in poker, you just need to be prepared at the table.
What ended up actually happening was a bit more fun than this explanation, I raised with this awesome hand and the bb actually called...................the flop rolled off Q, 9, 2 rainbow, making me bottom two pair, I lead at the flop (like I would if I missed completely) and my opponent moved in, to my snap call..............he felts QJ and the board eventually makes me a fullhouse and I double through...................much more exciting than the analysis.........
Final verdict is, you should always look for profitable situations in gambling, take into account all relevant factors and make the best decision and be happy with it.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Fantasy Sports - Misunderstood Concepts #2
Positional Requirements
I had a discussion with a friend the other day, in which he presented a hypothetical question regarding the data analysis I work with (he is a semi believer, basically I think he wants to use data analysis to a lesser extent than I use it, because he has great feel for the game and would just love to have data as a back up or to break ties for him, which is fine and probably good use for him as his feel probably still puts him ahead of 75% of the group)................he said, if the top player in your analysis is an OF (say in the middle rounds) and you need a SS, but he is 5 players down on the schedule, do you take the OF, or the SS............I gave the short answer and said that using data is not absolute and that I would take the SS based on need. I also brought up a theoretical point...........if this were a league in which there were no positional requirements whatsoever, you could pick the guy with the best absolute value every single pick. The real or more detailed answer is that based on valuation metrics that rate the value of the related position, I would take whicher player had the best comparative value..............my comparative value was a way for putting a value on players playing different positions, which allows you to make the best choose (value wise) when making a decision..............this decision pointed me in the direction of Victor Martinez in round 4, when his absolute value was lower than many guys selected immediately after him..........his comparative value (by position) shot him above all others. Now, coupled with this is strategic factors regarding positional requirements..........remember we are choosing between best available players in my example when weighing positions..................if you want to weigh rostered strategic factors, you have to do a lot of mock drafts to determine market value (or go to www.mockdraftcentral.com and print their ADP reports)...............and use many different draft positions to see, on average, where players come off the board and what types of deficiencies a particular roster might have picking a certain way (this type of exercise is underperformed and takes practice to be able to accurately assess, even I don't have an entire grasp of this, but I have gotten better and have a beat on most leagues I play in, but new leagues will be harder).
Again, I digress..............my point is that, I have a metric set up to help distinguish value between positions in the leagues I play in, mainly because I don't think it is very easy to determine this factor...........I think a lot of people make mistakes in this area and grossly under or overvalue the difference in positions............I was just in a draft in which a player liked a pick due to position when the pick immediately after that was a player that, not only had a better projected overall value, but also had a better comparative positional value, but since the 1st player was a middle infielder, it was assumed that his subpar numbers belong there while the OF didnt............this is something that I need to study much much more and perfect, but it is safe to say that there is many opportunites to gain an edge...........
I had a discussion with a friend the other day, in which he presented a hypothetical question regarding the data analysis I work with (he is a semi believer, basically I think he wants to use data analysis to a lesser extent than I use it, because he has great feel for the game and would just love to have data as a back up or to break ties for him, which is fine and probably good use for him as his feel probably still puts him ahead of 75% of the group)................he said, if the top player in your analysis is an OF (say in the middle rounds) and you need a SS, but he is 5 players down on the schedule, do you take the OF, or the SS............I gave the short answer and said that using data is not absolute and that I would take the SS based on need. I also brought up a theoretical point...........if this were a league in which there were no positional requirements whatsoever, you could pick the guy with the best absolute value every single pick. The real or more detailed answer is that based on valuation metrics that rate the value of the related position, I would take whicher player had the best comparative value..............my comparative value was a way for putting a value on players playing different positions, which allows you to make the best choose (value wise) when making a decision..............this decision pointed me in the direction of Victor Martinez in round 4, when his absolute value was lower than many guys selected immediately after him..........his comparative value (by position) shot him above all others. Now, coupled with this is strategic factors regarding positional requirements..........remember we are choosing between best available players in my example when weighing positions..................if you want to weigh rostered strategic factors, you have to do a lot of mock drafts to determine market value (or go to www.mockdraftcentral.com and print their ADP reports)...............and use many different draft positions to see, on average, where players come off the board and what types of deficiencies a particular roster might have picking a certain way (this type of exercise is underperformed and takes practice to be able to accurately assess, even I don't have an entire grasp of this, but I have gotten better and have a beat on most leagues I play in, but new leagues will be harder).
Again, I digress..............my point is that, I have a metric set up to help distinguish value between positions in the leagues I play in, mainly because I don't think it is very easy to determine this factor...........I think a lot of people make mistakes in this area and grossly under or overvalue the difference in positions............I was just in a draft in which a player liked a pick due to position when the pick immediately after that was a player that, not only had a better projected overall value, but also had a better comparative positional value, but since the 1st player was a middle infielder, it was assumed that his subpar numbers belong there while the OF didnt............this is something that I need to study much much more and perfect, but it is safe to say that there is many opportunites to gain an edge...........
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Fantasy Sports - Misunderstood Concepts #1
This series was written in early 2008, but is certainly applicable to today and also to other forms of gamblings....enjoy
Decisions > Results
I play fantasy sports with an ever increasingly intelligent group...........most of my leagues consist of half sharp players and the other half dead money..........this makes the leagues both profitable and fun, because it is fun to match wits with the smart group and take money from the dead money half...........but regardless of how sharp the better players get, they focus more on the result, than on the decision.............this is a critical error especially in fantasy sports.........now, I understand that winning (the result) in the long run is most important, but most of the people who play fantasy leagues aren't looking at the long run, they are looking at this round, this draft, this season...........not, the decisions in tow, and learning from the mistakes and the non-mistakes................I consider a non-mistake, a decision that didn't work out, but was still the best decision at the time..............this is harder to determine than the decisions that you struck gold on. I just completed a draft in which I made a bunch of questionable decisions..............and by questionable, I chose to gobble up the following risky pitchers (I exclude Cole Hamels as he is of risk, but much less than the following).............Liriano, Lincecum, P Martinez, O Perez, BJ Ryan and Rafael Soriano..............now, in hindsight, or, sometime August, I will be commended for the ones that strike gold, but someone else will look at my draft and say, why did you pick BJ Ryan there, he only pitched part time and got 15 Saves............or why did you take Pedro, you knew he'd get hurt (after he goes down in late May and stays out the rest of the year)..................the bottom line is the strategy/method/decisions are what is right, the results don't mean much.....................the strategy is to take a pass on the high pick pitchers and stock up on hitters, especially in an 8 team league, you need lots of hitting to compete, and in a league where you can split relievers and starters 4/4 and where out of 5 categories, 3 are ratios, you only want those volatile/risky pitchers that either provide those ridiculous ratios, or get hurt/well underproduce and are easily cut and replaced with (another closer, a middler reliever or another starter that you didn't draft, but remained a free agent).
In 2007, my models told me to pick the following players.................Gary Sheffield and Julio Lugo..............both were drastically undervalued based on the market.............but most people look at our team last year and say, Sheff was a great pick in the 10th round.........and...........Lugo was such a bad pick in the 11th round, he had a terrible year................Lugo's projected line was something like 95/15/50 35SB's .275 that kind of season would get most middle infielders drafted in the top 5 rounds (Brian Roberts comes to mind).............but, Lugo's season tanked, while Sheff's season exceeded expectations (until he got injured near the end of the season). Both were quality decisions, but I have no problem proliferating that Lugo was a bad pick, if nothing else, for fun and to keep my opponents on their toes.
Decisions > Results
I play fantasy sports with an ever increasingly intelligent group...........most of my leagues consist of half sharp players and the other half dead money..........this makes the leagues both profitable and fun, because it is fun to match wits with the smart group and take money from the dead money half...........but regardless of how sharp the better players get, they focus more on the result, than on the decision.............this is a critical error especially in fantasy sports.........now, I understand that winning (the result) in the long run is most important, but most of the people who play fantasy leagues aren't looking at the long run, they are looking at this round, this draft, this season...........not, the decisions in tow, and learning from the mistakes and the non-mistakes................I consider a non-mistake, a decision that didn't work out, but was still the best decision at the time..............this is harder to determine than the decisions that you struck gold on. I just completed a draft in which I made a bunch of questionable decisions..............and by questionable, I chose to gobble up the following risky pitchers (I exclude Cole Hamels as he is of risk, but much less than the following).............Liriano, Lincecum, P Martinez, O Perez, BJ Ryan and Rafael Soriano..............now, in hindsight, or, sometime August, I will be commended for the ones that strike gold, but someone else will look at my draft and say, why did you pick BJ Ryan there, he only pitched part time and got 15 Saves............or why did you take Pedro, you knew he'd get hurt (after he goes down in late May and stays out the rest of the year)..................the bottom line is the strategy/method/decisions are what is right, the results don't mean much.....................the strategy is to take a pass on the high pick pitchers and stock up on hitters, especially in an 8 team league, you need lots of hitting to compete, and in a league where you can split relievers and starters 4/4 and where out of 5 categories, 3 are ratios, you only want those volatile/risky pitchers that either provide those ridiculous ratios, or get hurt/well underproduce and are easily cut and replaced with (another closer, a middler reliever or another starter that you didn't draft, but remained a free agent).
In 2007, my models told me to pick the following players.................Gary Sheffield and Julio Lugo..............both were drastically undervalued based on the market.............but most people look at our team last year and say, Sheff was a great pick in the 10th round.........and...........Lugo was such a bad pick in the 11th round, he had a terrible year................Lugo's projected line was something like 95/15/50 35SB's .275 that kind of season would get most middle infielders drafted in the top 5 rounds (Brian Roberts comes to mind).............but, Lugo's season tanked, while Sheff's season exceeded expectations (until he got injured near the end of the season). Both were quality decisions, but I have no problem proliferating that Lugo was a bad pick, if nothing else, for fun and to keep my opponents on their toes.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Food Poisoning
In case you were wondering, Food Poisoning sucks.............I have been down for the count for 3 days, pretty much useless (even more so than usual).............this truly has nothing to do with gambling, unless you realize that in all of the meals I have had in my entire life, I have only had food poisoning twice and both times were asian cuisine (Chinese food and this most recent time, Thai food)............now, the probability of getting food poisoning is so amazingly low, that it won't stop me from ordering either of these in the future, but for some people it does and that is amazing.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Experience
Quick hit,
I saw a post on 2+2 talking about the state of poker today from a player who hadn't played in a while...........it got me thinking how much experience matters in any gambling endeavor.
Experience only matters if you are actively learning and improving your game (whether it be poker, sports betting, horse betting, backgammon, fantasy sports, etc).........experience may not help you at all if you keep doing the same dumb things, and never try to learn/improve......ignorance is bliss, but it costs money too.
I saw a post on 2+2 talking about the state of poker today from a player who hadn't played in a while...........it got me thinking how much experience matters in any gambling endeavor.
Experience only matters if you are actively learning and improving your game (whether it be poker, sports betting, horse betting, backgammon, fantasy sports, etc).........experience may not help you at all if you keep doing the same dumb things, and never try to learn/improve......ignorance is bliss, but it costs money too.
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