I didn't pay much attention to the NFL Draft yesterday, but I did have a chance to see Michael Oher go #23 overall to the Baltimore Ravens..............I was sitting with a group of guys who had a chuckle about him shedding a tear............well, that was until I informed them of his special story. I am not going to rehash the story in full here, if you want to know about Michael Oher in total just google him, or do even better by picking up Michael Lewis' excellent book The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game
Oher has overcome humongous obstacles to get to where he is right now, even with all of the help he received from his adopted family the Tuohy's, who are very special people themselves for doing all that they have done to help this young man out..............anytime I think of Michael Oher, it inspires me to work a little bit harder, or to be appreciative of my many advantages that I have received in this world.
So, while watching grown men cry might be something to laugh at in certain circumstances, in this one, it was more inspiring than anything, to see a young man come so far to get there. I am a die-hard Chicago Bears fan, but you can bet that I will be rooting for the tackle that went #23 to Baltimore to have success every single week.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Friday, April 24, 2009
Searching for more value....changing environments I
Lots of fantasy experts talk about a hitter changing from a good hitting environment to a poor hitting environment or vice versa.....same thing for pitchers moving from a good pitching environment (namely a place like Petco or Dodgers stadium) to a poor pitching environment (like Coors Field)...............I thought of another environment that can make a substantial difference.
Stolen Bases
Some teams have a much better stolen base environment........this is being seen in small sample size with Bobby Abreu who has 8 SB's already........it is probably common knowledge that a team like Tampa or LAA run more than most...........and teams like the A's run less than most teams........but few people seem to look for outliers in either direction taking this into account. Mind you, I believe that the projections of the major sites take this into degree to some point, but if you are trying to win a league, you need to find potential outlier performances. This is more of a critique of managers style or organizational style. One thing I didn't take into account is that some savvy managers can change their tastes from season to season. Case in point, Ozzie Guillen, in 2005, the Chicago White Sox won a world series by bashing the ball all over the yard and employing great starting pitching.....oh and by the way they were 4th in mlb in SB's and 2nd in total sb attempts...........but as the White Sox aged and got rid of speedier options like Scott Podsednik, they fell down the list in SB's, 14th in 2006, 20th in 2007 and 25th in 2008......enter 2009, and the White Sox are sporting a slightly younger, slightly more mobile team and they are back in the top group..........although it is a small sample size, the White Sox are 5th in SB's again, making guys like Alexei Ramirez, Chris Getz and Brian Anderson prospects for blowing away their stolen base projections.
Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper to outwit your opponents.
Stolen Bases
Some teams have a much better stolen base environment........this is being seen in small sample size with Bobby Abreu who has 8 SB's already........it is probably common knowledge that a team like Tampa or LAA run more than most...........and teams like the A's run less than most teams........but few people seem to look for outliers in either direction taking this into account. Mind you, I believe that the projections of the major sites take this into degree to some point, but if you are trying to win a league, you need to find potential outlier performances. This is more of a critique of managers style or organizational style. One thing I didn't take into account is that some savvy managers can change their tastes from season to season. Case in point, Ozzie Guillen, in 2005, the Chicago White Sox won a world series by bashing the ball all over the yard and employing great starting pitching.....oh and by the way they were 4th in mlb in SB's and 2nd in total sb attempts...........but as the White Sox aged and got rid of speedier options like Scott Podsednik, they fell down the list in SB's, 14th in 2006, 20th in 2007 and 25th in 2008......enter 2009, and the White Sox are sporting a slightly younger, slightly more mobile team and they are back in the top group..........although it is a small sample size, the White Sox are 5th in SB's again, making guys like Alexei Ramirez, Chris Getz and Brian Anderson prospects for blowing away their stolen base projections.
Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper to outwit your opponents.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Another League Draft
I joined a public league on Yahoo.............the commissioner eventually caved to my wishes to play this 10 teamer as a $10 winner take all...............my strategy for a 10 team 5 X 5 (23 active players, standard and 5 man bench)..............was to grab value, value, value, especially in hitting........by the way, this is my first weekly lineup league, so I was kind of excited for the format.
Anyway, here it goes, with comments.............
Pepsi Double 1. (8) Ryan Howard 2. (13) Chase Utley 3. (28) Brian Roberts 4. (33) Álex Rodríguez 5. (48) Roy Halladay 6. (53) Chipper Jones 7. (68) Josh Beckett 8. (73) Jay Bruce 9. (88) Adam Dunn 10. (93) J.J. Hardy 11. (108) Joey Votto 12. (113) Chris Iannetta 13. (128) Chris Young 14. (133) Brian Fuentes 15. (148) Nelson Cruz 16. (153) Josh Johnson 17. (168) Frank Francisco 18. (173) Justin Upton 19. (188) Jason Motte 20. (193) Heath Bell 21. (208) Chris Carpenter 22. (213) Cameron Maybin 23. (228) Carlos Gómez 24. (233) Joel Hanrahan 25. (248) Ubaldo Jiménez 26. (253) Felipe López 27. (268) Brandon Inge 28. (273) J.J. Putz
This was the first league that I secured both Utley and Howard........actually, of my first 5 picks, I only have Roberts in another league...........Chipper is a staple of my teams,...........so is Dunn, Votto and Bruce.........I went Iannetta in the 12th to grab a Colorado catcher with some power potential..........I started taking closers in round 13, later than normal but I figured to grab a bunch.........grabbed Cruz in 14 just to have him, I have drafted a lot of teams and hadn't gotten him once.............the rest of the draft is pretty standard for me except for Inge in round 27, he has catcher eligibility, so I figured I could get some additional counting stats because he'll play everyday.
All in all, I felt that I had a nice draft and can't wait until ARod comes off the DL to get my team into full swing.
Anyway, here it goes, with comments.............
Pepsi Double 1. (8) Ryan Howard 2. (13) Chase Utley 3. (28) Brian Roberts 4. (33) Álex Rodríguez 5. (48) Roy Halladay 6. (53) Chipper Jones 7. (68) Josh Beckett 8. (73) Jay Bruce 9. (88) Adam Dunn 10. (93) J.J. Hardy 11. (108) Joey Votto 12. (113) Chris Iannetta 13. (128) Chris Young 14. (133) Brian Fuentes 15. (148) Nelson Cruz 16. (153) Josh Johnson 17. (168) Frank Francisco 18. (173) Justin Upton 19. (188) Jason Motte 20. (193) Heath Bell 21. (208) Chris Carpenter 22. (213) Cameron Maybin 23. (228) Carlos Gómez 24. (233) Joel Hanrahan 25. (248) Ubaldo Jiménez 26. (253) Felipe López 27. (268) Brandon Inge 28. (273) J.J. Putz
This was the first league that I secured both Utley and Howard........actually, of my first 5 picks, I only have Roberts in another league...........Chipper is a staple of my teams,...........so is Dunn, Votto and Bruce.........I went Iannetta in the 12th to grab a Colorado catcher with some power potential..........I started taking closers in round 13, later than normal but I figured to grab a bunch.........grabbed Cruz in 14 just to have him, I have drafted a lot of teams and hadn't gotten him once.............the rest of the draft is pretty standard for me except for Inge in round 27, he has catcher eligibility, so I figured I could get some additional counting stats because he'll play everyday.
All in all, I felt that I had a nice draft and can't wait until ARod comes off the DL to get my team into full swing.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Calling for Value
In todays game of poker, especially no limit holdem tournament poker, I love calling for value..............ex/last night, I played a low limit sng, raised with AQo and was called by the button (an active player that was raising and continuation betting a lot)............flop comes 10,8,2 rainbow, I check, he bets, I call, turn 4, I check, he bets, I call, river is another 4, I check, he bets, I call, felt my AQo for the winner.
The moral of the story is that sometimes checking and calling the bet of an active player is the best way to get value.............in this particular example, this player probably would've folded his KJo the second I lobbed a bet out there, but he would bet mostly every flop that he missed, and I would certainly be ahead of his range enough of the time to warrant calling a flop in this spot. This type of play works even better with small pairs when you have an active and aggressive player who will be no matter what they hold.....................value is value and you don't always have to bet to get it.
The moral of the story is that sometimes checking and calling the bet of an active player is the best way to get value.............in this particular example, this player probably would've folded his KJo the second I lobbed a bet out there, but he would bet mostly every flop that he missed, and I would certainly be ahead of his range enough of the time to warrant calling a flop in this spot. This type of play works even better with small pairs when you have an active and aggressive player who will be no matter what they hold.....................value is value and you don't always have to bet to get it.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Closer Troubles
So just a week after the Jason Motte situation, Joel Hanrahan blows back to back saves and Manny Acta reaches into the minors to grab Garrett Mock, Jason Bergmann and Kip Wells.................while Hanrahan is still on the roster and could very well still get the next save opportunity, there are two possible plays here...............first off, it is unlikely Wells gets this job, I see him more as a long reliever, someone to caddy for Jordan Zimmerman so they can control his innings. Garrett Mock is the closer in waiting, but he has been struggling in the minors this season............finally Jason Bergmann was a decent starter a time ago, but injuries kept him from doing too much...........he could end up being the guy as he has good stuff, but possibly not the stamina to be a starter.
Either way, I potentially get egg on my face for trading for Hanrahan because his price had gotten cheap after his 2nd blown save...................it will be interesting to see how this shakes out. This is further proof that grabbing solid earlier round closers is very valuable, as it saves you from this sort of drama.
Either way, I potentially get egg on my face for trading for Hanrahan because his price had gotten cheap after his 2nd blown save...................it will be interesting to see how this shakes out. This is further proof that grabbing solid earlier round closers is very valuable, as it saves you from this sort of drama.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Two weeks of value
Quick hit: I was talking to my brother today about my late investments in Nick Johnson, which are paying dividends right now (in my shallower mixed leagues I have picked him up, in my deeper leagues or NL Only, I drafted him late)...............I told him "I'll ride Nick Johnson until he breaks down".............at that point he told me "If you get 2 good weeks out of a pick up, then you got something valuable".............let me qualify this.............we play in leagues with daily pickups and often times 100 max moves, which means there is a lot of player movement, but his point is well taken. When you pick a player up, how much production can you/should you expect. I agree 2 weeks worth of hitting .350 and obp .450 is very valuable even without a ton of power..........the idea is, spend the year trying to find those guys with pockets of playing time/matchup advantages/advantageous park effects/lineup switches etc, it could be the difference between winning and not winning.
Regression and Appreciation
Regression and Appreciation of skills does not usually occur in a linear fashion.
When valuing a player for your fantasy baseball team, this is an important point to note. I took a look at many older players in this year's draft trying to find one thing, "Which older player, who's skills are potentially regressing is going to regress in a non-linear fashion and potentially have an uptick in numbers. This situation occurred last year with Carlos Delgado........after having a geriatric year in 2007, he had a huge year in 2008. I don't think a lot of people would disagree that his skills have regressed, and if you asked people after the 2007 season, they would've said his skills are on a downward path, but regresssion doesn't occur in a linear fashion, so while Delgado is regressing as age catches up with him, he (and others) have the chance to have an uptick in numbers during their regression and can be available at a fraction of the price that these type of numbers would normally cost.
The same goes for appreciation, young players sometimes appreciation in a rapid fashion instead of a linear one. This topic though has been hashed and rehashed, which is why you hear the theory of the 27 year old season and the break out season. But few people focus on those older players that will have a non-linear regression (in a positive manner, as players could fall off a cliff and become horrible quickly also, like Mo Vaughn did). The players who provide a positive uptick can make the difference between winning your league and floating in mediocrity.
Here is a group of players to watch for an uptick in numbers due to a non-linear regression
Paul Konerko
Luis Castillo
Miguel Tejada
Scott Rolen
Todd Helton
Ken Griffey Jr
Jason Varitek
Nomar Garciaparra
Gary Sheffield
When valuing a player for your fantasy baseball team, this is an important point to note. I took a look at many older players in this year's draft trying to find one thing, "Which older player, who's skills are potentially regressing is going to regress in a non-linear fashion and potentially have an uptick in numbers. This situation occurred last year with Carlos Delgado........after having a geriatric year in 2007, he had a huge year in 2008. I don't think a lot of people would disagree that his skills have regressed, and if you asked people after the 2007 season, they would've said his skills are on a downward path, but regresssion doesn't occur in a linear fashion, so while Delgado is regressing as age catches up with him, he (and others) have the chance to have an uptick in numbers during their regression and can be available at a fraction of the price that these type of numbers would normally cost.
The same goes for appreciation, young players sometimes appreciation in a rapid fashion instead of a linear one. This topic though has been hashed and rehashed, which is why you hear the theory of the 27 year old season and the break out season. But few people focus on those older players that will have a non-linear regression (in a positive manner, as players could fall off a cliff and become horrible quickly also, like Mo Vaughn did). The players who provide a positive uptick can make the difference between winning your league and floating in mediocrity.
Here is a group of players to watch for an uptick in numbers due to a non-linear regression
Paul Konerko
Luis Castillo
Miguel Tejada
Scott Rolen
Todd Helton
Ken Griffey Jr
Jason Varitek
Nomar Garciaparra
Gary Sheffield
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Early Season - Buy or Sell
This is a list of players in which I will quickly tell you to buy or sell and a short reason............the fantasy baseball season is young, but there are still decisions to make.
Justin Upton - sell, Eric Byrnes blows, but his horrible contract hurts Upton
Travis Hafner - buy, the power is back, and when it heats up, the Tribe will score a hella lot of runs
Lastings Milledge - sell, hello Triple AAA
Chris Volstad - buy, the Fish have an excellent offense and he throws plenty o' ground balls
Chris Duncan - buy, he can't stop hitting, I guess his neck is in fine shape
Kosuke Fukudome - buy, he doesn't need to hit nearly this well to have a great year
Cliff Lee - sell, big time regression for Lee
Josh Hanrahan - buy, his price may have gotten lower because his team can't win, time to grab him up
Last but not least, don't be afraid to use those last few roster spots to gamble..........nothing wrong with thinking about Tommy Hanson.................I heard Tom Glavine is pondering retirement due to shoulder ailments.
Justin Upton - sell, Eric Byrnes blows, but his horrible contract hurts Upton
Travis Hafner - buy, the power is back, and when it heats up, the Tribe will score a hella lot of runs
Lastings Milledge - sell, hello Triple AAA
Chris Volstad - buy, the Fish have an excellent offense and he throws plenty o' ground balls
Chris Duncan - buy, he can't stop hitting, I guess his neck is in fine shape
Kosuke Fukudome - buy, he doesn't need to hit nearly this well to have a great year
Cliff Lee - sell, big time regression for Lee
Josh Hanrahan - buy, his price may have gotten lower because his team can't win, time to grab him up
Last but not least, don't be afraid to use those last few roster spots to gamble..........nothing wrong with thinking about Tommy Hanson.................I heard Tom Glavine is pondering retirement due to shoulder ailments.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Auction Draft
Here is an auction draft that I did which was conducted on ESPN, but the league is actually being run on Yahoo.
A couple of notes, I have never done an auction draft before, but I read a few strategies on various sites, and realized that this was a 10 teamer 5 X 5 with a $260 budget, with what seemed like a not necessarily experienced group (this was not a league I ran, it was with some people I found on www.fantasybaseballcafe.com ) that I was going to try a STARS and SCRUBS strategy...........this strategy suggests that you buy a handful of premium players and then count on getting a group of $1-$5 values at the end. This league requires that we start 13 hitters, 9 pitchers and we also have a 3 player bench. Along with my stars and scrubs strategy I was planning on buying some $1 middle relievers to throw into my lineup when I don't have starting pitchers going, to improve my rates and get a few K's and possibly vulture some wins and saves.
My primary goals in this draft were to get Hanley, Pujols and McCann.......it didn't work out perfectly, but I think I nabbed a good team
3B
David Wright
$41
SS
Hanley Ramirez
$40
OF
Alfonso Soriano
$25
C
Brian McCann
$17
P
Jonathan Papelbon
$17
P
Mariano Rivera
$15
P
Rich Harden
$14
1B
Carlos Pena
$11
OF
Adam Dunn
$10
P
Jonathan Broxton
$9
P
Javier Vazquez
$9
OF
Justin Upton
$7
P
Chris Carpenter
$7
OF
Lastings Milledge
$6
MI
Rickie Weeks
$5
P
Dan Wheeler
$5
CI
Paul Konerko
$4
P
Ted Lilly
$4
P
Josh Johnson
$4
OF
Chris Young
$3
Util
Adrian Beltre
$3
2B
Kelly Johnson
$1
P
Johnny Cueto
$1
P
JJ Putz
$1
P
Juan Cruz
$1
Soriano for $25 was excellent, I didn't even have him in my plans but when I saw where he was shaking out, I had to throw my bid in. .....................I wasn't able to get Pujols because he went for $52, but when I grabbed Wright as the next guy, I was very pleased............getting Broxton for $9 and Josh Johnson for $4 were nice value picks for me, as were Konerko for $4, Chris Young OF for $3 and Kelly Johnson for $1,................I realized that Stars and Scrubs is the way to go in a more passive draft with fewer teams like this.
All in all I was pleased with my team and felt like I grabbed tons of value and only overpaid for a few a players that I thought were essential to my roster, like Chris Carpenter.
I hope to do more auctions next season as I like the fluidity of the market in an auction and I like how personal preference can come into play and you truly can build the team you want.
A couple of notes, I have never done an auction draft before, but I read a few strategies on various sites, and realized that this was a 10 teamer 5 X 5 with a $260 budget, with what seemed like a not necessarily experienced group (this was not a league I ran, it was with some people I found on www.fantasybaseballcafe.com ) that I was going to try a STARS and SCRUBS strategy...........this strategy suggests that you buy a handful of premium players and then count on getting a group of $1-$5 values at the end. This league requires that we start 13 hitters, 9 pitchers and we also have a 3 player bench. Along with my stars and scrubs strategy I was planning on buying some $1 middle relievers to throw into my lineup when I don't have starting pitchers going, to improve my rates and get a few K's and possibly vulture some wins and saves.
My primary goals in this draft were to get Hanley, Pujols and McCann.......it didn't work out perfectly, but I think I nabbed a good team
3B
David Wright
$41
SS
Hanley Ramirez
$40
OF
Alfonso Soriano
$25
C
Brian McCann
$17
P
Jonathan Papelbon
$17
P
Mariano Rivera
$15
P
Rich Harden
$14
1B
Carlos Pena
$11
OF
Adam Dunn
$10
P
Jonathan Broxton
$9
P
Javier Vazquez
$9
OF
Justin Upton
$7
P
Chris Carpenter
$7
OF
Lastings Milledge
$6
MI
Rickie Weeks
$5
P
Dan Wheeler
$5
CI
Paul Konerko
$4
P
Ted Lilly
$4
P
Josh Johnson
$4
OF
Chris Young
$3
Util
Adrian Beltre
$3
2B
Kelly Johnson
$1
P
Johnny Cueto
$1
P
JJ Putz
$1
P
Juan Cruz
$1
Soriano for $25 was excellent, I didn't even have him in my plans but when I saw where he was shaking out, I had to throw my bid in. .....................I wasn't able to get Pujols because he went for $52, but when I grabbed Wright as the next guy, I was very pleased............getting Broxton for $9 and Josh Johnson for $4 were nice value picks for me, as were Konerko for $4, Chris Young OF for $3 and Kelly Johnson for $1,................I realized that Stars and Scrubs is the way to go in a more passive draft with fewer teams like this.
All in all I was pleased with my team and felt like I grabbed tons of value and only overpaid for a few a players that I thought were essential to my roster, like Chris Carpenter.
I hope to do more auctions next season as I like the fluidity of the market in an auction and I like how personal preference can come into play and you truly can build the team you want.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Jason Motte
Yep, I chose to watch the abomination that was Jason Motte's 2nd appearance in the closer role in which he was able to get only one out, put two men on base and then get pulled for Kyle McClellan (Motte did obtain a HOLD, which I think is ridiculous considering his poor performance, but I'll take it in my leagues that recognize them). This is two in a row and even though LaRussa was quoted after the game as saying it is a work in process, it definitely concerns me............here is the question..........What to do with Jason Motte?
These questions arise from time to time and taking a deliberate approach is often best, here are my scenarios.
1) Cut bait with Motte - in most leagues that I am in that use Holds, I can grab a Brian Bruney from NYY or Juan Cruz from KC, or the like...........those guys are available and should remain available until they rack up a few more holds and someone notices their silly K rates. In 5 X 5 leagues, there are already 0 closers out there, so dumping Motte would only be something of interest if we need a different type of player or category........plus, I couldn't tell you who is going to close if they don't use Motte, considering the best candidate is currently closing for Memphis
2) Keep Motte and wait it out - in 5 X 5, I would guess this is the best way to go, since the worst that can happen has already happened and you have nothing but upside. Plus, most of the leagues I am in that don't count holds, still have all of the "closer in waiting" middle relievers rostered.
3) Trade Motte - only in a super deep league in which you have owners willing to speculate. Even then, you probably shouldn't use this option unless you are desperate for a certain category or position and this owner is willing to give you a little taste of it..........
So my conclusion is to keep Jason Motte until Tony LaRussa stops running him out there, or until I hear that Chris Perez is being called up from Memphis............
These questions arise from time to time and taking a deliberate approach is often best, here are my scenarios.
1) Cut bait with Motte - in most leagues that I am in that use Holds, I can grab a Brian Bruney from NYY or Juan Cruz from KC, or the like...........those guys are available and should remain available until they rack up a few more holds and someone notices their silly K rates. In 5 X 5 leagues, there are already 0 closers out there, so dumping Motte would only be something of interest if we need a different type of player or category........plus, I couldn't tell you who is going to close if they don't use Motte, considering the best candidate is currently closing for Memphis
2) Keep Motte and wait it out - in 5 X 5, I would guess this is the best way to go, since the worst that can happen has already happened and you have nothing but upside. Plus, most of the leagues I am in that don't count holds, still have all of the "closer in waiting" middle relievers rostered.
3) Trade Motte - only in a super deep league in which you have owners willing to speculate. Even then, you probably shouldn't use this option unless you are desperate for a certain category or position and this owner is willing to give you a little taste of it..........
So my conclusion is to keep Jason Motte until Tony LaRussa stops running him out there, or until I hear that Chris Perez is being called up from Memphis............
Friday, April 10, 2009
League Draft #4 - NL Only
My fourth draft review is for an NL Only draft that I ran on Yahoo..............this is my first try at an NL Only league, but as I mentioned in my last post, in order to consider myself a serious fantasy player, I need to start playing all different types of games.
This was an 11 team league, with the same positions as my other leagues 25 man roster, 12 active hitters, 6 active pitchers, 6 X 6 roto (OBP and Holds). My strategy going in was to look for value, to grab a premium catcher early (Russell or McCann) and to wait on taking OF's as I saw them as the deepest position
Here is our team....
1.
(2)
Hanley Ramírez
2.
(21)
Adam Dunn
3.
(24)
Brian McCann
4.
(43)
Dan Uggla
5.
(46)
Chad Billingsley
6.
(65)
Justin Upton
7.
(68)
Jayson Werth
8.
(87)
Francisco Cordero
9.
(90)
Brett Myers
10.
(109)
Chad Qualls
11.
(112)
Felipe López
12.
(131)
Chris Carpenter
13.
(134)
Cristian Guzmán
14.
(153)
Jason Motte
15.
(156)
Nick Johnson
16.
(175)
Tommy Hanson
17.
(178)
Ryan Spilborghs
18.
(197)
Daniel Murphy
19.
(200)
Jody Gerut
20.
(219)
Leo Núñez
21.
(222)
Tony Peña
22.
(241)
Andy LaRoche
23.
(244)
Cla Meredith
24.
(263)
Sean Marshall
25.
(266)
Chris Duncan
For the first time since I have been doing these reviews, I draw a top pick, the #2 overall slot. In the chat before the draft, I asked the #1 player who he was going to take and he really pleased me by saying Pujols, which meant I would get the #1 overall fantasy player at #2 and could more easily build my team from here.
One important thing to remember about your early round picks is that you should definitely take the best value whenever possible, but you also need to consider which player will help you best when building your team. For me, I find it easier to build a team when I grab a player who 1) Steals bases and 2) Plays a scarce position, so in the 1st round, my faves are the 3 SS's............granted, I wont shy away from Pujols or D Wright if they are the pick at my spot, but I prefer to grab one of the big 3 SS and go from there..........back to my draft.
Hanley #2 overall was excellent for me as it was going to help me build exactly the type of team I wanted, strong at scarce positions and some underrated talent in the OF and at the corners. I went Adam Dunn in the 2nd and Brian McCann in the 3rd, Dunn's credentials are obvious, he'll hurt me a bit in BA, but the rest of his numbers are rock solid.............getting McCann put me in great position to crush 9 of the other 10 owners at the catcher position (someone will have Russell).
4th and 5th round I was pleased to grab Uggla and Billingsley, giving me another scarce position and a premium starting pitcher. These two picks gave me a great base to simply grab value the rest of the way.
6th and 7th rounds I grabbed the anchors to my OF, Justin Upton and Jason Werth........rounds 8 and 10 saw me pick up my closers, F Cordero and C Qualls........Rounds 11 and 12 are probably the keys to my team, Felipe Lopez plays every position in Yahoo (save 1b and c) so if he produces anything close to 15/15 with 90 runs, he will make the difference on my offense, and then I grabbed Chris Carpenter, all signs in spring training were pointing to a resurgence to top form................the Carpenter pick has risk, I don't know how long he'll last this way as he is always a candidate for breakdown, but a big year from him will mean that my pitching staff is in good stead (his first outting of the season just occurred and he held Pittsburgh to 1 hit over 7 IP).
13th, Guzman to round out my infield and offset Dunn's terrible BA.....14 Motte as my 3rd closer (great spring, but blew his first save opp)....15, Nick Johnson, very forgotten by most teams, but by this point, he had been proclaimed the starter and when he is healthy I can count on .290 avg and .400 obp, so this was a pretty nice late pick.........I then grabbed OF, Spilborghs, Daniel Murphy, Jody Gerut, Chris Duncan.............I need 1 of these guys to have a big year...............
Last pick I want to touch on, 22nd round Andy LaRoche...........he has the pedigree, I desperately needed a 3B, he has at an age where prospects get their last chance, he also has Pedro Alvarez breathing down his neck. I wanted to take him as he is in a make or break season for his career, he'll either lead my team to fantasy glory or be bagging groceries by seasons end and being an optimist, I am hoping for the former.
This was an 11 team league, with the same positions as my other leagues 25 man roster, 12 active hitters, 6 active pitchers, 6 X 6 roto (OBP and Holds). My strategy going in was to look for value, to grab a premium catcher early (Russell or McCann) and to wait on taking OF's as I saw them as the deepest position
Here is our team....
1.
(2)
Hanley Ramírez
2.
(21)
Adam Dunn
3.
(24)
Brian McCann
4.
(43)
Dan Uggla
5.
(46)
Chad Billingsley
6.
(65)
Justin Upton
7.
(68)
Jayson Werth
8.
(87)
Francisco Cordero
9.
(90)
Brett Myers
10.
(109)
Chad Qualls
11.
(112)
Felipe López
12.
(131)
Chris Carpenter
13.
(134)
Cristian Guzmán
14.
(153)
Jason Motte
15.
(156)
Nick Johnson
16.
(175)
Tommy Hanson
17.
(178)
Ryan Spilborghs
18.
(197)
Daniel Murphy
19.
(200)
Jody Gerut
20.
(219)
Leo Núñez
21.
(222)
Tony Peña
22.
(241)
Andy LaRoche
23.
(244)
Cla Meredith
24.
(263)
Sean Marshall
25.
(266)
Chris Duncan
For the first time since I have been doing these reviews, I draw a top pick, the #2 overall slot. In the chat before the draft, I asked the #1 player who he was going to take and he really pleased me by saying Pujols, which meant I would get the #1 overall fantasy player at #2 and could more easily build my team from here.
One important thing to remember about your early round picks is that you should definitely take the best value whenever possible, but you also need to consider which player will help you best when building your team. For me, I find it easier to build a team when I grab a player who 1) Steals bases and 2) Plays a scarce position, so in the 1st round, my faves are the 3 SS's............granted, I wont shy away from Pujols or D Wright if they are the pick at my spot, but I prefer to grab one of the big 3 SS and go from there..........back to my draft.
Hanley #2 overall was excellent for me as it was going to help me build exactly the type of team I wanted, strong at scarce positions and some underrated talent in the OF and at the corners. I went Adam Dunn in the 2nd and Brian McCann in the 3rd, Dunn's credentials are obvious, he'll hurt me a bit in BA, but the rest of his numbers are rock solid.............getting McCann put me in great position to crush 9 of the other 10 owners at the catcher position (someone will have Russell).
4th and 5th round I was pleased to grab Uggla and Billingsley, giving me another scarce position and a premium starting pitcher. These two picks gave me a great base to simply grab value the rest of the way.
6th and 7th rounds I grabbed the anchors to my OF, Justin Upton and Jason Werth........rounds 8 and 10 saw me pick up my closers, F Cordero and C Qualls........Rounds 11 and 12 are probably the keys to my team, Felipe Lopez plays every position in Yahoo (save 1b and c) so if he produces anything close to 15/15 with 90 runs, he will make the difference on my offense, and then I grabbed Chris Carpenter, all signs in spring training were pointing to a resurgence to top form................the Carpenter pick has risk, I don't know how long he'll last this way as he is always a candidate for breakdown, but a big year from him will mean that my pitching staff is in good stead (his first outting of the season just occurred and he held Pittsburgh to 1 hit over 7 IP).
13th, Guzman to round out my infield and offset Dunn's terrible BA.....14 Motte as my 3rd closer (great spring, but blew his first save opp)....15, Nick Johnson, very forgotten by most teams, but by this point, he had been proclaimed the starter and when he is healthy I can count on .290 avg and .400 obp, so this was a pretty nice late pick.........I then grabbed OF, Spilborghs, Daniel Murphy, Jody Gerut, Chris Duncan.............I need 1 of these guys to have a big year...............
Last pick I want to touch on, 22nd round Andy LaRoche...........he has the pedigree, I desperately needed a 3B, he has at an age where prospects get their last chance, he also has Pedro Alvarez breathing down his neck. I wanted to take him as he is in a make or break season for his career, he'll either lead my team to fantasy glory or be bagging groceries by seasons end and being an optimist, I am hoping for the former.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
League Draft #3 AL Only
Alright, this was my first stab at playing in an AL Only league and I must say it was brought on by listening to Jeff Erickson talk about LABR and TOUT Wars...........I figured that to be a serious fantasy player I needed to add some AL and NL Only leagues into the mix.
This is a 9 team AL Only, again, 6 X 6, 25 man roster, 12 active hitters, 6 active pitchers, 7 bench spots, daily transactions (all of the leagues I run have daily transactions).
Before listing out my picks, I had a few ideas of what I wanted to do...........the AL has 4 top notch closers, and I wanted to make sure I got at least 1 of them, possibly 2..........the only other spot that really had me concerned was SS, in which the AL is very short of quality players, my goal was to grab one of these players.
This draft saw me picking out of the 9 hole, so I had the turnaround pick. My 1st 2 picks saw me go with the best combo of HR/RBI that was on the board. The next time around, I went with the two scarce positions and was pleased to grab them the way I did because another team went Papelbon and Nathan in rounds 2 and 3 as sort of an avant garde strategy. Round 5 was pure value and could end up being the key to my team, if Granderson has a big year, 25/30, 120 runs, my offense should be in great shape. Round 6 I went back to position scarcity as I grabbed the 4th top closer in the AL. Rounds 9 and 10 I grabbed Greinke and Meche back to back as my first starters, not the most glamorous two, but I felt that their low ratios and high K's would be fine on my team and if they happened to get a bunch of wins this year, even better.
Now my supervalue picks, 11 - Konerko, because of his tough, injury riddled season last year, people shied away from him, but there is no doubt that a healthy PK hits 30 HR, and to get that kind of power at this spot is pretty excellent. 13 - Francisco, if there are any dark horse AL closers that could end the year in the top 5, it is Francisco, take a look at his 2nd half last year and realize that he is the full time closer to start 2009. 14 - Cust, no way should this guy still be on the board in an AL Only league at this spot, too much power to still be here (btw, I end up moving Cust for Carlos Gomez at the end of the draft, because I need Gomez SB's).
Rounds 15 and 17 I went with pitchers, I am hoping Escobar comes back earlier than thought and Sonnanstine is just excellent value here, a groundball pitcher who plays on an excellent defensive team.
My last notable pick is round 24, Russell Branyan, yes, that Russell Branyan, I heard that Seattle is going to use him as the left handed portion of a platoon at 1st base. This means that assuming he can stick in the majors he'll get 450 AB's, which more than likely means 25HR, at a very cheap cost.............this pick has some risk, but it is the sort of pick that can win a league for you. yes, he will strike out once every 3 AB, but he also walks a ton and can flat out mash.
This is a 9 team AL Only, again, 6 X 6, 25 man roster, 12 active hitters, 6 active pitchers, 7 bench spots, daily transactions (all of the leagues I run have daily transactions).
Before listing out my picks, I had a few ideas of what I wanted to do...........the AL has 4 top notch closers, and I wanted to make sure I got at least 1 of them, possibly 2..........the only other spot that really had me concerned was SS, in which the AL is very short of quality players, my goal was to grab one of these players.
| 1. | (9) | Jason Bay |
| 2. | (10) | Justin Morneau |
| 3. | (27) | Mariano Rivera |
| 4. | (28) | Derek Jeter |
| 5. | (45) | Curtis Granderson |
| 6. | (46) | Joakim Soria |
| 7. | (63) | Adrián Béltre |
| 8. | (64) | Mark DeRosa |
| 9. | (81) | Zack Greinke |
| 10. | (82) | Gil Meche |
| 11. | (99) | Paul Konerko |
| 12. | (100) | Mark Ellis |
| 13. | (117) | Frank Francisco |
| 14. | (118) | Jack Cust |
| 15. | (135) | Kelvim Escobar |
| 16. | (136) | Gary Sheffield |
| 17. | (153) | Andy Sonnanstine |
| 18. | (154) | Franklin Gutiérrez |
| 19. | (171) | Elvis Andrus |
| 20. | (172) | Dámaso Marte |
| 21. | (189) | Jensen Lewis |
| 22. | (190) | David Purcey |
| 23. | (207) | Gio González |
| 24. | (208) | Russell Branyan |
| 25. | (225) | Kurt Suzuki |
This draft saw me picking out of the 9 hole, so I had the turnaround pick. My 1st 2 picks saw me go with the best combo of HR/RBI that was on the board. The next time around, I went with the two scarce positions and was pleased to grab them the way I did because another team went Papelbon and Nathan in rounds 2 and 3 as sort of an avant garde strategy. Round 5 was pure value and could end up being the key to my team, if Granderson has a big year, 25/30, 120 runs, my offense should be in great shape. Round 6 I went back to position scarcity as I grabbed the 4th top closer in the AL. Rounds 9 and 10 I grabbed Greinke and Meche back to back as my first starters, not the most glamorous two, but I felt that their low ratios and high K's would be fine on my team and if they happened to get a bunch of wins this year, even better.
Now my supervalue picks, 11 - Konerko, because of his tough, injury riddled season last year, people shied away from him, but there is no doubt that a healthy PK hits 30 HR, and to get that kind of power at this spot is pretty excellent. 13 - Francisco, if there are any dark horse AL closers that could end the year in the top 5, it is Francisco, take a look at his 2nd half last year and realize that he is the full time closer to start 2009. 14 - Cust, no way should this guy still be on the board in an AL Only league at this spot, too much power to still be here (btw, I end up moving Cust for Carlos Gomez at the end of the draft, because I need Gomez SB's).
Rounds 15 and 17 I went with pitchers, I am hoping Escobar comes back earlier than thought and Sonnanstine is just excellent value here, a groundball pitcher who plays on an excellent defensive team.
My last notable pick is round 24, Russell Branyan, yes, that Russell Branyan, I heard that Seattle is going to use him as the left handed portion of a platoon at 1st base. This means that assuming he can stick in the majors he'll get 450 AB's, which more than likely means 25HR, at a very cheap cost.............this pick has some risk, but it is the sort of pick that can win a league for you. yes, he will strike out once every 3 AB, but he also walks a ton and can flat out mash.
League Draft #2
Now that the season has started, my goal is to get through all of my league drafts in short order, so that I can start with in season advice and strategies and various other thoughts.
The following is a 14 team mixed roto league, once again 6 X 6 (includes OBP and Holds). I added a bunch of people that I haven't played much with and some old friends, 25 man roster, with 12 active hitters, 6 active pitchers and a 7 player bench.
Here is the draft with commentary to follow...........
My general strategy in a draft like this, with a bunch of newcomers is to draft value and make sure my team has enough of pretty much everything to be a factor. I also like to hold off on SP's because most inexperienced teams like to grab SP's before they are truly valuable.
Picking out of the 11th hole in a 14 teamer is definitely one of the worst spots in the draft. I might have made a mistake drafting Berkman 1st instead of Kinsler who went next. After that, grabbing Beltran and then Chipper Jones, both of these players are high on my list. I went Papelbon in the 4th, which is standard operating procedure for me, but I am starting to see the light about NOT spending such a high pick on a closer, even if he is a no brainer #1 closer.
Round 5, Joey Votto is on many of my teams, I am highly invested in him across most of my leagues...........same thing for Broxton in Round 8, who really should've been my first closer. Everything I have read and all of the projections I have seen show that Broxton really has top 5 closer potential, but is generally going off of the board much later than that group.
Round 11, Ricky Nolasco was an absolute steal, my only regret was not grabbing Josh Johnson in round 12 (he went in round 13).
Other notable picks, Cameron in the 15th, grabbing a 20/20 guy here, is absolutely insane, especially one with his consistent track record and a few more value pitchers with Meche in the 18th and Kuroda in the 20th, you are looking at solid guys who put together decent ratios, and in Meche's case 180K's, these guys should not be sitting there for a team that went with no premium arms to grab.
I might be a tad bit short on power as I don't have a guy like Adam Dunn to solidify my power, but I have enough balance that if I hit upside power on Bruce or Votto, I should be in decent shape.
Next up, AL and NL Only drafts
The following is a 14 team mixed roto league, once again 6 X 6 (includes OBP and Holds). I added a bunch of people that I haven't played much with and some old friends, 25 man roster, with 12 active hitters, 6 active pitchers and a 7 player bench.
Here is the draft with commentary to follow...........
| 1. | (11) | Lance Berkman |
| 2. | (18) | Carlos Beltrán |
| 3. | (39) | Chipper Jones |
| 4. | (46) | Jonathan Papelbon |
| 5. | (67) | Joey Votto |
| 6. | (74) | Jay Bruce |
| 7. | (95) | Jhonny Peralta |
| 8. | (102) | Jonathan Broxton |
| 9. | (123) | Chris Young |
| 10. | (130) | Carlos Zambrano |
| 11. | (151) | Ricky Nolasco |
| 12. | (158) | Cristian Guzmán |
| 13. | (179) | Felipe López |
| 14. | (186) | Adam LaRoche |
| 15. | (207) | Cameron Maybin |
| 16. | (214) | Ian Stewart |
| 17. | (235) | Mike Cameron |
| 18. | (242) | Gil Meche |
| 19. | (263) | Jonathan Sánchez |
| 20. | (270) | Hiroki Kuroda |
| 21. | (291) | Jeff Clement |
| 22. | (298) | Jon Rauch |
| 23. | (319) | Dámaso Marte |
| 24. | (326) | Octavio Dotel |
| 25. | (347) | Pedro Feliz |
My general strategy in a draft like this, with a bunch of newcomers is to draft value and make sure my team has enough of pretty much everything to be a factor. I also like to hold off on SP's because most inexperienced teams like to grab SP's before they are truly valuable.
Picking out of the 11th hole in a 14 teamer is definitely one of the worst spots in the draft. I might have made a mistake drafting Berkman 1st instead of Kinsler who went next. After that, grabbing Beltran and then Chipper Jones, both of these players are high on my list. I went Papelbon in the 4th, which is standard operating procedure for me, but I am starting to see the light about NOT spending such a high pick on a closer, even if he is a no brainer #1 closer.
Round 5, Joey Votto is on many of my teams, I am highly invested in him across most of my leagues...........same thing for Broxton in Round 8, who really should've been my first closer. Everything I have read and all of the projections I have seen show that Broxton really has top 5 closer potential, but is generally going off of the board much later than that group.
Round 11, Ricky Nolasco was an absolute steal, my only regret was not grabbing Josh Johnson in round 12 (he went in round 13).
Other notable picks, Cameron in the 15th, grabbing a 20/20 guy here, is absolutely insane, especially one with his consistent track record and a few more value pitchers with Meche in the 18th and Kuroda in the 20th, you are looking at solid guys who put together decent ratios, and in Meche's case 180K's, these guys should not be sitting there for a team that went with no premium arms to grab.
I might be a tad bit short on power as I don't have a guy like Adam Dunn to solidify my power, but I have enough balance that if I hit upside power on Bruce or Votto, I should be in decent shape.
Next up, AL and NL Only drafts
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
