Saturday, December 27, 2008

Positive Expected Utility - Emotional Hedges

I am not a believer in emotional hedges, but I do believe in +EU (or Expected Utility). Utility is an economic term and measures the non-tangible value received from a decision. An example is you may like living in a city with a lot of sunny days because it effects your mood positively while forgoing living in a city where you could earn more money.

I have lots of friends that make emotional hedge bets (a hedge is a bet that may or may not be +EV {expected value}, but will help to minimize losses).

Ex/The beloved Chicago Bears have a Monday night tussle with the hated Green Bay Packers, you want the Bears to win so bad.............so you take an emotional hedge bet and bet on the Green Bay Packers to win the game..................what does this do? It effectively comforts your emotional loss (if the Bears lose) with an emotional win (cash).

Try it sometime if the thought of your beloved team is too much to bear, just remember these bets can only provide comfort and are not a sound way to make money.

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