Factoring in Factors in a Poker (Tournament) Hand

I played a poker tournament with some friends a few months ago, in which I played a very interesting hand. This hand has been interesting enough that it has been brought up in bar talk at least 3 times by people other than me, so I want to address the hand and some of the factors that I take into account when playing poker. For those of you that play poker and are a winning player, you won't really learn anything new, but for those of you that occassionally play poker, you might learn a thing or two.

I'll set the situation, it is the bubble of a tournament, in which the payouts are 3rd - 2 buyins, 2nd - 4 buyins, 1st - 7 buyins.

Factor #1 - The payout is top heavy, so we are playing more for 1st than in a normal sit n go where bubble play would be slightly different.

The other 3 players are known, 1 of them is solid, he is to my immediate left and is involved with me in this hand, the other two players are aggressive, one of them is extremely aggressive and plays these spots really well.................the other is aggressive, but doesn't play the bubble that well and is exploitable in some spots, but aggressive enough that I have to ramp up my aggression.

Factor #2 - This final 4 will be more aggressive than my usual home games, so I need to steal the blinds and antes whenever I can

There are T65,000 in play, at this point the blinds are 600/1200 ante 300, so the starting pot is T3000, roughly 4.5% of the chips in play, in other words, every pot you can win is very very valuable. Also, the stack sizes range from about 20k to 9k (smallest stack) so nobody is forced all in at this point, everyone can still fold hands (or feel like they can fold hands). Plus, with this being the bubble, people are playing tighter than normal.

Factor #3 - Bubble is always a spot where people play tighter (especially with their calling range), unless you are playing a very tough game, which this was not.

My table image with this group (my home game group) is one of being very tight and very solid...........also, the player to my left is pretty solid, respects my game and is willing to lay down hands to me and is unlikely to reraise me without an excellent hand.

Factor #4 - Take into account what other players think of you, remember in a game like No Limit Holdem, especially preflop, the only thing that people have to go on to define your hand is your image and your bet size.............this is an important element that is overlooked by most recreational players

Last but certainly not least, the math, with T3,000 in the pot to start, I raise to T2700 (T600 of which is in the sb) so my investment is T2100 to win T3000. So, lets assume that I have 2 napkins, that if the bb calls my raise, I can never win..............for this to be a break even play for me, I need him to fold 70% of the time..............this means that his calling range would need to be roughly 30% of the hands he is dealt preflop, which are roughly (using Pokerstove) all pairs, any suited Ace or King, and hands as bad as Q7s and J8s, or a hand like J9o.............knowing the player in question and his familiarity with me, this just isn't the case, he is probably calling with closer to the top 20 or 25% of hands..................so the play is profitable already, not even knowing my holecards...............but now, lets come back to reality and plug in my hole cards which were 9c2c (yeah, obviously an excellent holding) and see how well it does against the top 25% of hands (all in equity using pokerstove)..................in this spot, I have 32% equity vs this range of hands..............so add more +chip EV...............last but not least, some of the time when the flop comes down and my opponent would've won had it gotten to the river, I would bet the flop and win with a bluff.................as I am first to act after the flop and will continuation bet all but the scariest boards that come off...............so despite the fact that raising 92 sooted from the sb looks like a donkey play, when figuring in all of these factors, and in this particular game it is ++++EV.

Factor #5 - Do the math, away from the table, so you can guesstimate at the table (this calculation above is too complex for me to do at the table, but I have run simulations away from the table using pokerstove (free download) and excel to crunch some rough numbers. You don't have to be good at math to win in poker, you just need to be prepared at the table.

What ended up actually happening was a bit more fun than this explanation, I raised with this awesome hand and the bb actually called...................the flop rolled off Q, 9, 2 rainbow, making me bottom two pair, I lead at the flop (like I would if I missed completely) and my opponent moved in, to my snap call..............he felts QJ and the board eventually makes me a fullhouse and I double through...................much more exciting than the analysis.........

Final verdict is, you should always look for profitable situations in gambling, take into account all relevant factors and make the best decision and be happy with it.