Friday, August 14, 2009

In contention - what to do now?

Okay, lets assume you are close, but not quite in first..........this is often the time to get very aggressive, mainly because your equity is considerably larger by increasing your chances of winning vs finishing in the lower money positions.

1) Be aggressive. If you have to trade Prince Fielder for Michael Bourn because picking up 20 SB's in the 2nd half gives you an outside shot at winning, then you should do it. If you desperately need pitching, go give up a top hitter and make sure you get it. The worst thing a team in the lower money positions can do, is sit back and not take shots at winning. Do not assume your team will suddenly jump up and take the lead, unless you have evidence to believe this can actually happen....ie injuries or slumps from major players

2) Leverage the waiver wire. In some leagues, you don't need pay for moves, so this play can work and really is a solid idea for teams of every place. Prime examples/ Assume you are close in the counting stats in Hitting, but your BA is dead last by a mile, you can now churn players on Monday and Thursday (assuming your league has daily transactions) and catch up in counting stats by using many more at bats. Same thing in pitching if your ratios stink, you can pick up Wins and K's by streaming pitchers.

3) Analyze the teams ahead of you and see where there is potential for catching up, not just in the standings, but look at places where their team will likely be susceptible.......are they an older team? did they have a young overachieving team in the first half? You can sometimes draw conclusions based on this. In one league i was in, I saw a team that I trailed in SB's (and we were neck and neck for 1st) had a player who was now injured who provided a big chunk of steals, so they were susceptible, so it made sense for me to deal a good player to get a player that got SB's. These little windows of value may be small, but no stone should be left unturned.

In the end, teams in the lower money position should be a very aggressive while minimizing their downside risk to falling out of the money. Certainly a tough position.

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