Saturday, February 28, 2009

Fantasy Baseball - Leveraging your Disabled List

Some leagues allow you to have a DL spot or two (the leagues I run allow for 2 DL spots). One idea that I have come up with this fantasy baseball season is the idea of leveraging your DL spots to increase/improve your roster.

The two players I have in mind, that perform in the top 1% of all players when healthy, but inevitably end up on the DL every single year are Rich Harden and Chipper Jones. I want to make the case for drafting these guys below their " if they never got hurt and played full time" draft value, but above their "normal everyday league, we know these guys will be injured at some point" draft value.

A couple of factors come into play,

1) Can you get these guys for reasonable value, assuming their playing time and their production? The answer is inevitably YES, this is not fantasy football, where avoiding ouchy running backs is an essential strategy..............when these guys play, they are the best of the best. Most people treat them like it is fantasy football and avoid at all cost, because they assume the correlation and maybe they just get heart broken.

2) Can you find a suitable replacement at a cheap price? MAYBE, obviously you don't get the same value as a cheap replacement, but this year, I believe both players can be reasonably replaced during injury with a very cheap player that won't hurt you during their down time. With Chipper, I see Mark Reynolds, Jorge Cantu and Adrian Beltre going very late in drafts, these guys are very reasonable replacements during the inevitable injury. With Harden, I see Gil Meche, Chris Young and Andy Pettitte going in the late middle rounds, these guys are all solid pitchers to plug in when a Rich Harden goes down, and the combination of the two probably gives you a very solid pitcher at a cheap price

Both of these players will be in my plans for this years fantasy drafts.

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