Saturday, February 7, 2009

Perspective on Luck

This chat log is from a $1/$2 Seven Card Stud hand that I played on Pokerstars, these are the types of things that allow successful gamblers to thrive.

Dealer: Game #24229672634: peeig wins pot ($16.05) with two pair, Jacks and Tens
DESKIN: nr had till then
peeig: you caught up on 6th?
DESKIN: yep
peeig: i got lucky then
DESKIN: poker have to love it


In this particular hand, I raised on 3rd with the best hand, bet all the way and made a 2nd pair on the river. My opponent called all along with a smaller pair, trying to improve, actually did improve on 6th and begrudged their bad luck on me beating them on the end by saying "nr" nice river.

After any gambling endeavor, win or lose, especially those with a close end result, you need to decide if you actually had the edge, or if you got lucky to win in the first place. It isn't always bad luck when you lose, sometimes it is bad play and you weren't unlucky at all.

Ex/This is my first year playing in a fantasy hockey league, I admittedly know nothing about hockey, but I do know about fantasy leagues............unfortunately things haven't worked out well and I am in the middle of the pack and will likely stay there through the end of the year. I could blame it on my top goalie getting hurt for more than half of the season.....but realistically, it was because, I didn't prepare properly for the draft, I left guys on the board in spots when I should've taken them (thinking they would last another round) and I gave up too early on a couple of players and cut them before they turned it around. In other words, my efforts were definitely -EV and I was NOT unlucky.

If you want a proper treatment of LUCK, please read Nassim Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness this book gives an excellent treatment of how luck is perceived and how luck actually effects your life.

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