Saturday, March 28, 2009

Sleeper & Bust are relative terms

When it comes to fantasy articles and tv shows at the major media outlets, you hear the terms "Sleeper" and "Bust" more often than not. These are strictly buzz words that have little to no meaning...........we toss them around, but they lack substance, because a players relative fantasy value has to do with their Price. When I say Price, I mean the position/round in which you draft them (or don't draft them) or the amount you have to pay at auction for the player. Also, remember that leagues vary and roster sizes or rules or scoring systems can significantly change the value of a player.

I have read and heard in various places that Chris Davis 1B Texas Rangers is some people/outlets top sleeper. As of this morning, www.mockdraftcentral.com has a ADP (Average Draft Position) of 65. This means that in a standard 5 X 5 12 team rotisserie league, he is being drafted in the 6th round. In other words, he needs to hit the high end of his projections to even validate his draft position, hardly making him a value or a "Sleeper" as suggested by some.

Another website had Troy Percival RP Tampa Bay Rays as one of it's top "Busts" of 2009. I checked the average ADP for Percival this morning and it was 232, which means he would be picked in the 20th round, so towards the end of the draft. Even better is that he is the 33rd relief pitcher being taken. In other words, he could have his terrible predicted season, and really not hurt you at all given his price. He could also be an average reliever with a below average ERA and WHIP and a bunch of saves and help your team. Again, hardly a "Bust" given his price.

When going through a draft, you need to be constantly evaluating the Price of the player and give no thought to whether they are a "Sleeper" or a "Bust", at a certain price, everyone is valuable and at a certain price, mostly everyone isn't valuable.

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