Friday, April 24, 2009

Searching for more value....changing environments I

Lots of fantasy experts talk about a hitter changing from a good hitting environment to a poor hitting environment or vice versa.....same thing for pitchers moving from a good pitching environment (namely a place like Petco or Dodgers stadium) to a poor pitching environment (like Coors Field)...............I thought of another environment that can make a substantial difference.

Stolen Bases

Some teams have a much better stolen base environment........this is being seen in small sample size with Bobby Abreu who has 8 SB's already........it is probably common knowledge that a team like Tampa or LAA run more than most...........and teams like the A's run less than most teams........but few people seem to look for outliers in either direction taking this into account. Mind you, I believe that the projections of the major sites take this into degree to some point, but if you are trying to win a league, you need to find potential outlier performances. This is more of a critique of managers style or organizational style. One thing I didn't take into account is that some savvy managers can change their tastes from season to season. Case in point, Ozzie Guillen, in 2005, the Chicago White Sox won a world series by bashing the ball all over the yard and employing great starting pitching.....oh and by the way they were 4th in mlb in SB's and 2nd in total sb attempts...........but as the White Sox aged and got rid of speedier options like Scott Podsednik, they fell down the list in SB's, 14th in 2006, 20th in 2007 and 25th in 2008......enter 2009, and the White Sox are sporting a slightly younger, slightly more mobile team and they are back in the top group..........although it is a small sample size, the White Sox are 5th in SB's again, making guys like Alexei Ramirez, Chris Getz and Brian Anderson prospects for blowing away their stolen base projections.

Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper to outwit your opponents.

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